What went wrong for Edwards at Luton?

Rob Edwards left Luton Town after 15 defeats from 26 games in the Championship

Rob Edwards has endured the euphoric highs and excruciating lows of football, all in the space of 20 months.

The 42-year-old guided Luton Town to the Premier League in his first season at the club, but their short stay in the top flight ended in relegation despite a valiant effort.

Since Luton's return to the Championship, though, Edwards has been walking a tightrope with just seven wins from 26 games, leaving them two points above the drop zone.

Their most recent run of four straight defeats was the breaking point and what has seemed like an inevitable departure for the best part of two months finally materialised on Thursday.

So, how did it all go wrong for Edwards at Luton - and why?

Poor performances or bad luck?

Luton have the second worst defence in the Championship with 44 goals conceded

Disappointing displays, ill fortune or a bit of both? You could point to many things to explain Luton's fall from grace. Either way, the numbers paint a fairly bleak picture right now.

First and foremost, the Hatters have lost more games than any other side in the Championship this season with 15 defeats - bottom side Plymouth Argyle, Hull City and Derby County have lost 13.

Luton also have the second leakiest defence in the division having conceded 44 goals - only Plymouth have allowed more (53).

In his last post-match interview following the 2-1 defeat at QPR, which was Luton's 10th consecutive loss on the road, Edwards said the "footballing gods are against us" in reference to both Hoops goals being fortuitous.

"He did his best, events transpired against him, particularly in the last four games," former Luton player and manager David Pleat told BBC Radio Three Counties.

"There were incredible last-minute goals and freak goals as well - and it can happen, you can have a bad run."

Luton's expected goals against data would perhaps give some weight to theories of slight misfortune, having let in 11 more than their xGA (33.2).

That drastic difference in numbers points to either exceptional finishing from opposition players, unlucky breaks or poor goalkeeping.

Goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski has played 25 of their 26 games and has marginally underperformed, conceding 43 goals from an xG of 40.2, meaning he has allowed 2.8 more goals than he should have.

Luton's pressing game also appears to have been less effective. During their 2022-23 promotion campaign, opposition teams only managed an average of 10.7 shots per game - that total is 13.7 this season.

At the other end, their finishing hasn't been up to scratch, scoring almost four fewer than their xG (30.8) suggests they should have, with their output of 27 goals the sixth worst in the Championship.

Top scorer Carlton Morris has seven goals at a ratio of one every 3.2 games, compared to one every 2.2 when he netted 20 times two seasons ago.

Strike partner Elijah Adebayo has a better ratio than in 2022-23, 5.2 compared to 6.0, but has only scored five goals in 26 games this season.

Luton have scored 27 goals in 26 games - 10 fewer than the 37 they had at this stage in the Premier League last season

Did 'stubbornness', lack of quality or injuries cost Edwards?

"It was a sad day but unfortunately a day that became more and more inevitable, certainly over the Christmas period," said Kevin Harper, podcaster and member of Luton Town Supporters' Trust, following Edwards' exit.

"One thing the new manager has to do is play a formation that doesn't involve three centre-backs because that's what got fans' backs up towards the end.

"There was a stubbornness and a refusal to switch from that, and our eyes were telling us that it wasn't working."

Edwards may well point to the number of quality players he had at his disposal in the Premier League who either left the club or have been out with injury as a key factor in his demise.

"Ross Barkley was on another level to everyone else in a Luton Town shirt," said BBC Three Counties Radio sports editor Geoff Doyle.

"Albert Sambi Lokonga alongside him in central midfield is better than anything the club has at the moment, [Gabriel] Osho has gone, [Chiedozie] Ogbene has gone, [Issa] Kabore has gone, Tom Lockyer is injured. That is six certain starters Luton had last season that they no longer have.

"The recruitment in the summer wasn't quite good enough and the players that have come in to replace them may end up being very good players, but at the moment they are not on the same level as those six.

"You can talk about formations as much as you like but if the players aren't quite good enough at a certain level then you are going to get beaten more times than you will win.

"Rob was quite stubborn, he did like 3-4-3 but every coach in the world has a preferred formation.

"Should he have played four at the back more often? Yes, that's an argument we could have. Would it have led to more victories? I'm not sure, but we'll never know."

Harper says there's still the "nucleus of a really good squad" at Luton but that injuries "haven't helped".

"Having Alfie Doughty back, for example, would be massive and Rob was without his services for the last three months, which certainly didn't help," Harper said.

Pleat said the drop off in results "doesn't mean Edwards hasn't got quality" and "hasn't been a good leader".

"He will leave here with a very good legacy," he said.

Edwards 'looked broken for a long time'

Rob Edwards won just eight of his last 43 league matches in charge of Luton

Edwards has cut a forlorn and frustrated figure in the majority of his media interviews throughout a difficult season.

Sometimes he bemoaned bad luck, others he blamed the players and often even shouldered the responsibility himself.

The panel on BBC's Football Daily 72+: The EFL Podcast described Edwards as having looked like he had been "broken" for a while.

"I think this is something we've certainly picked up on for a long time now," former Reading player Jobi McAnuff told the show.

"Everything personally that's gone on at that club, the highs, the lows, the Tom Lockyer situation (when he suffered a cardiac arrest during a Premier League game at Bournemouth), it's bound to take its toll."

McAnuff thinks the players also have to take responsibility for Luton's poor form and defensive frailties, particularly away from home.

"I've got sympathy for Rob because Luton haven't got a group of players that shouldn't be performing at this level," he said.

"They are way below where they should be. For too many games this year, the players haven't done well enough."

Doyle said there was "massive credit" in the bank for Edwards following their journey to the top and that he was given the "benefit of the doubt" by the board after they were thrashed 5-1 at Middlesbrough on 9 November.

"That's why there was no knee-jerk reaction," said Doyle. "[After the Middlesbrough game] he looked so fed up that he couldn't get the side playing like he wanted them to.

"He's an emotional manager who wears his heart on his sleeve. They've given it two more months and he hasn't quite turned it around. It's the right time for the club and for Rob as well."

What next for Luton Town?

Liam Rosenior, Matt Bloomfield and Nathan Jones have all been linked with the Luton job

With an average of 0.96 points per game so far, Luton are on pace to achieve 44 points by the end of the season - a number that would have seen them relegated in four of the past eight Championship campaigns.

It means Luton simply must improve under whoever their next head coach may be or face the prospect of slipping further down into League One.

"Liam Rosenior kind of fits the profile we're looking for," said Harper. "[We need] someone who is more tactically flexible, who can play with a back four, and who is good at coaching young players.

"We're in a relegation battle but we have five massive games coming up. If we can take advantage of three or four of those then the outlook will look a lot rosier very quickly."

Rosenior was sacked by Hull at the end of last season despite leading them to a seventh-placed finish in the Championship.

The 40-year-old is now the head coach of French Ligue 1 side Strasbourg and would need to be prised away.

Wycombe Wanderers boss Matt Bloomfield is currently the favourite with the bookmakers, having steered the Chairboys to second in League One so far, including a 19-game unbeaten run between August and December.

"You can understand it because he's done a great job at Wycombe," said Doyle.

"They don't have the best resources in League One and he's got them second in the table, and have been top for a number of weeks as well, playing some lovely football.

"He's a young up-and-coming manager and the type Luton like – they don't tend for go for someone who has been at different clubs."

Other coaches being linked with the role include David Wagner, Gary O'Neil, Steve Cooper, Stephen Robinson and even two-time former boss Nathan Jones.

"The first time he left Luton, he left under a cloud and the board were savage in what they said about him – and yet they brought him back for a second time," added Doyle.

"When he left the second time he left on very good terms.

"People have been saying to me 'he won't go back there again', well, they had him back last time and this time around he is still liked by the club, so it could easily happen."

Whoever comes in has big shoes to fill, regardless of Edwards' ultimate downfall at Kenilworth Road.

Harper added: "We've lost the man who gave us the greatest memories we could ever have had."