An unwanted sale - so why have Man City let Alvarez leave?

Julian Alvarez is Man City's third top scorer in all competitions over the past two seasons

Right at the start of what many are expecting to be Manchester City's toughest season for a while, the Premier League champions have been presented with problem number one - Julian Alvarez's imminent £81.5m exit to Atletico Madrid.

City boss Pep Guardiola did not want the 24-year-old forward to leave and - having featured in 103 matches across all competitions for the club over the past two seasons - his loss won't be easy to cover.

Guardiola may have known the reality but his last public words on the Argentina forward, on Saturday after his side had beaten Chelsea in Columbus, made it clear what he felt.

"He will come back," said Guardiola. "I count on him."

Guardiola was not being disingenuous. He has relied on Alvarez as a significant part of his attacking unit. That is reflected in the price he is being sold for, the biggest in City's history by a considerable distance.

But City have a long established policy of not keeping unhappy players – and everyone at the club knew an issue with Alvarez was looming once Argentina won the 2022 World Cup.

At that point, the then 22-year-old had made 20 City appearances, having arrived from River Plate for £14.1m, relatively unknown to European audiences. Crucially, over half of those appearances came as a substitute.

From that point, Alvarez knew he had no reason to be back-up to anyone.

The clear issue was the man in his way at City. The prolific Erling Haaland.

The statistics outline the problem.

• Over the last two seasons, Alvarez is seventh on the overall Premier League scoring list with 36. Haaland is top with 90.

• When goals and assists are added together, Alvarez is eighth with 53. Haaland is top with 105.

• Alvarez is ninth over the same period with total shots (214). Haaland (360) is top.

• Alvarez is eighth for shots on target (98). Haaland is at the head of that table too (183).

There was no chance of Alvarez getting Haaland out of the team, leaving the Argentine looking elsewhere to become the main man.

A chance for Savinho?

Less than 48 hours before it was confirmed City had agreed a fee with Atletico Madrid for Alvarez, their newest signing spoke at his unveiling.

Twenty-year-old Brazilian Savinho has been likened to former blue Riyad Mahrez in the way he plays. He has even taken the Algerian’s number 26 shirt.

If the comparison is accurate, he is not as direct as Alvarez, and may not drift into the same type of positions.

But, as a loan player, he contributed nine goals to Girona's successful quest to qualify for this season's Champions League and plenty of clubs wanted to sign him from parent club Troyes. Be assured his arrival in Manchester is not a vanity signing on behalf of the expanding City Football Group.

The question is, with Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish in addition to Savinho, and young Norwegian Oscar Bobb - who caught the eye on the four-match tour of the United States - does Guardiola feel he has enough striking cover for Haaland ahead of what is acknowledged to be one of the toughest club seasons?

It is a season that includes an expanded 36-team Champions League and the Club World Cup, which is not due to end until 13 July.

City have already been linked with Joao Felix, who has spent the last two seasons on loan from Atletico at Chelsea and Barcelona.

Given he still has two years left on his contract, that would appear more like Atletico looking to find a home for someone they spent £113m to sign in 2019 rather than a firm City belief the Portuguese is a good fit for them.

'Recruitment, desire, coaching and luck'

City's historic run to four straight English league titles is made more impressive by the list of players they have released in that time.

They have also won six out of the past seven titles.

In 2020, Leroy Sane was sold to Bayern Munich for £54.8m. In 2021, Ferran Torres to Barcelona for £46.7m. In 2022, Gabriel Jesus to Arsenal for £45m, Raheem Sterling to Chelsea for £50m and Oleksandr Zinchenko, also to Arsenal for £30m. Last summer alone, in the aftermath of a successful Treble quest, Mahrez was joined through the exit door by Aymeric Laporte, Cole Palmer and former skipper Ilkay Gundogan.

Yet City have kept on winning. They will start this season as favourite for every tournament they enter, including the Community Shield on Saturday when they face Manchester United, nursing a huge desire to atone for their shock FA Cup final defeat by the same opposition in May.

As with any club, the key to success starts with recruitment, overlaid by desire, good coaching and a little bit of luck.

City have proved over time to be excellent at the former – rival clubs with similar budgets have not achieved anything close to the same success. Guardiola spends huge amounts of time assessing the second part to spot negative signs, with City having one of the most successful coaches there has ever been and, on the fine margins, sometimes it works for them, on others – losing on penalties to Real Madrid in the quarter-finals of last season’s Champions League for instance – it does not.

Legal actions & charges hanging over heads

Yet, as initially outlined, even before the Alvarez situation took a twist, this was always going to be a tricky season for City.

We head into the new campaign still waiting for clarity around the club's legal action against the Premier League and its associated party transaction rules.

The case was heard in the middle of June. The answer could have significant consequences for the way the league operates its profit and sustainability rules, which are due to be changed in 2025.

And then we have the 115 charges for allegedly breaking profit and sustainability rules that date back to 2009, the punishment for which is open-ended, and they are charges that City strenuously deny.

Amid irritation from some about the time taken for the case to be heard given City were charged in February 2023 - since when Everton have twice and Nottingham Forest once been charged and had points deducted - a hearing is expected at some point in the autumn.

It is hoped a verdict will be delivered in the spring – but in a complex legal case such as this, there are no guarantees.

Guardiola's farewell?

Until last week, it had been thought this season would be Guardiola's last as City boss.

In the aftermath of his Premier League title success, he said it was "more likely" than not he would leave the club when he contract expires in the summer.

But during City's recent tour of the United States, the former Barcelona coach pulled back from that position, saying that he "never said I am leaving", adding he may yet sign an extension.

That dance may continue for a while before we find out one way or the other.

When he does go though, City only have to look across at Manchester United to see what kind of fall is possible to experience when a club used to winning does not get their succession planning around a long-term hugely successful manager right.

Beyond that, playmaker Kevin de Bruyne is now 33 and about to enter the final season of his contract, goalkeeper Ederson is wanted by the Saudi Pro League and both Bernardo Silva and John Stones have contracts that end in 2026.

It would be folly to predict the fall of an empire that has been created with such strength. But there are plenty of hazards ahead as City set out on their journey towards a fifth successive title win.