How realistic is a non-Old Firm title challenge?

It has been 40 years since Sir Alex Ferguson's Aberdeen became the last non-Old Firm side to win the Scottish top-flight title

With Rangers in turmoil and city rivals Celtic locked level on points with Hearts at the top of the Scottish Premiership, is this the season a non-Old Firm club finally delivers a serious title challenge?

Despite Brendan Rodgers' side taking 13 points from their first five league games, a disconnect between the fanbase and club hierarchy has soured the mood at Parkhead.

The Celtic support directed a protest towards the board in the team's late win at Kilmarnock on Sunday, a victory that moved the reigning champions back to the Premiership summit.

Rangers, meanwhile, are in 10th amid their worst start to a league campaign in 47 years under head coach Russell Martin, who has won just three of his 12 matches in charge.

So what are the chances of a team outside Glasgow taking advantage?

Are Hearts ready to challenge?

Following Hearts' 2-0 victory at Rangers on Saturday, many were starting to feel Tony Bloom's bullish comments were not so outlandish.

Last month, the Brighton owner, who now has a 29% stake in the Tynecastle club, said the Edinburgh side have a "very good chance of at least being second" this campaign.

Hearts are making use of Bloom's Jamestown Analytics software, which proved integral in Union Saint-Gilloise's remarkable rise to become Belgian top-flight champions for the first time in 90 years last season.

Despite that, Bloom's bold remarks were predictably sneered at across the country.

But on the evidence of Rangers' displays this term, and with Rodgers' side yet to hit top gear, there should be nothing to frighten non-Old Firm teams when facing Glasgow's big two.

As well as recruiting 10 new faces with the influence of Bloom's Jamestown model, Hearts have appointed a head coach in McInnes whose vast experience in Scottish football includes pushing Celtic for titles with Aberdeen.

In four straight seasons between 2014-15 and 2017-18, McInnes' Dons finished as runners-up in the Premiership, albeit two of those were in a campaign without Rangers.

His Hearts team have shown character with late goals and comebacks this term, and Saturday's statement win in Govan already has them nine points clear of the Ibrox side.

And what about Hibs?

It has been a stuttering start to the league season for David Gray's Hibernian, who are third but have drawn three of their four matches.

They are already seven points adrift of Celtic and city rivals Hearts, although they have a game to spare.

European exploits have been a factor in their start to the Premiership campaign, but their performances on the continent demonstrated how serious a team they are.

Gray's men can count themselves unlucky with the draws they were handed, yet they still avoided defeat in three away legs with Midtjylland, Partizan Belgrade and Legia Warsaw.

Hibs have retained almost all of their best XI from last term and have arguably upgraded the midfield with the additions of Josh Mulligan, Jamie McGrath and Miguel Chaiwa.

At the end of November last year, Gray's side were bottom of the table, but a remarkable run of form stretching to the end of the season earned them third spot.

In their past 26 league games, they have lost just twice.

Their points-per-game tally over that period is two, which would average out to a total of 76 over the course of a 38-game season.

That would have been enough to finish just a point above Rangers last term, but Celtic on 92 would have still been way in the distance.

When you think how difficult it would be for a club like Hibs to maintain that form over the course of a campaign, it only reinforces the challenge of finishing second, never mind first.

What does recent history tell us?

It tells us to put a sharp pin in our balloon of optimism - or at least let a good bit of air out of it.

It is easy to watch either - or both - of Glasgow’s big two and bin them off after they fail to pass the eye test, but they will likely still go on to post points tallies non-Old Firm clubs cannot find the consistency to come close to.

We are seeing that already in the infancy of the current campaign, with Hibs winning just one of their four opening games.

Meanwhile, despite a statement end to the transfer window, Aberdeen are rooted to the foot of the table with one point and no goals from four matches.

Closing the sizeable margin between second and third could prove hard enough. The average distance between the two spots over the past five seasons is 22 points.

That gap reflects a widening financial chasm, with qualification for Uefa's club competitions playing a key role.

While Celtic and Rangers have both failed to reach the Champions League this season, both still accounted for about 86% of the transfer fees spent in the Premiership this summer, according to Transfermarkt.

It makes the Edinburgh pair breaking their transfer records in the past window look like a tiny drop in the ocean.

And Hearts (74) and Hibs (67) would likely also have to smash their top-flight points records to stand a chance of even finishing second.

A Rangers side that was led by Philippe Clement and then Barry Ferguson last term failed to win 16 games over the course of the 2024-25 Premiership campaign, yet they finished 17 points clear of Hibs in third.

The Ibrox club were 12 points behind Aberdeen in early November and still ended the campaign 22 ahead of Jimmy Thelin's men.

Hearts investor Bloom has stressed the importance of "challenging the establishment". Come the end of this season, he will have a clearer picture of how realistic that is.