Derby County

Derby manager John Eustace fears the worst after the Championship's joint leading goalscorer Carlton Morris was forced off with a knee injury in the home defeat by Watford.

"It looks pretty bad," Eustace told BBC Radio Derby. "For the big man to come off it's got to be bad. At first glance it doesn't look bad so he'll get assessed tomorrow by the medical team and we'll take it from there."

Eustace was also disappointed by his side throwing away a two-goal lead, saying: "At 2-0 I thought we were comfortable. They had a lot of possession and are a really good team, and we switched off for that for that first goal they scored, that lack of concentration, and for the second game in a row we've given away a penalty where it was needless.

"At 2-2 we'd have taken a point with them on the front foot, and the way we conceded the third goal just wasn't like us, that lack of organisation and leadership."

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

Derby County return to action after the international break to go in search of a sixth straight Championship win when they welcome Watford to Pride Park on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

The Rams have climbed into the top-10, within two points of the play-off places, having gone five games without a win prior to this run to drop to 21st.

The Hornets are the only side in the division without an away win this season, taking three points from their seven matches on the road in total but went into the break unbeaten in three games to lie 15th, two points behind County.

• Derby County have lost their past four Championship matches against Watford, losing both at Pride Park in this run without scoring a goal (0-1 in 2020/21, 0-2 in 2024/25).

• Watford are looking to win three consecutive away league games against Derby for the first time – they've also kept a clean sheet in their past two, having conceded in each of their first 20 visits.

• Despite having the fewest shots in the Championship this season (127), Derby County are on a five-match winning run. The Rams last won six league games in a row between December 2022 and February 2023 in League One, while in the Championship they last did so between October and December 2016 (7).

• Watford's Imrân Louza has been involved in 11 goals in his past 14 Championship appearances (6 goals, 5 assists), including scoring or assisting in each of his past five games (4 goals, 1 assist).

• Derby's Carlton Morris is the joint leading scorer in the Championship this season with 10 goals, scoring five in November alone. It's the most Championship goals by a Rams player in one month since Matej Vydra scored five in November 2017, while since 2004/05 only Chris Martin has scored more in a single month – seven in December 2013.

Derby County head coach John Eustace was back in front of the media on Thursday to talk about Watford's visit on Saturday.

The 46-year-old reflected on the five-game winning run that took them into the international break as the Championship's most in form side.

"It's over the course of 15 games that they got themselves into a good position," he told BBC Radio Derby.

"They have been working their socks off for the past four months and there is a hell of a lot of hard work to go."

He gave a number of injury updates, saying midfielder David Ozoh could be back from injury in three weeks, while Max Johnston is "back on the grass" and a few weeks away from a return while Lewis Travis is "improving" but has undergone more scans to get a clearer picture of when he is due back from a calf problem.

On-loan defender Owen Beck, however, will return to parent club Liverpool after suffering a hamstring injury.

You can listen to all Eustace had to say to BBC Radio Derby - including what he made of the legion of Rams players that were in action for their national sides over the past two weeks - by clicking the play button above.

For all the latest interviews and analysis on the Rams, go to dedicated Derby County page on BBC Sounds.

Andrew Aloia
BBC Sport, East Midland at Moor Farms

Image source, Derby County Football Club

Defender Owen Beck is set to return to Liverpool from his loan at Derby County after being ruled out for up to four months with a hamstring injury.

The 23-year-old has failed to make an appearance for the Rams since joining on a season-long loan in the summer.

A succession of injuries has kept the highly-rated left-back out of John Eustace's side this term.

He suffered his latest setback in a recent Under-21 match against Blackburn Rovers, and has since undergone surgery so will return to parent club Liverpool for his rehabilitation.

"I feel really sorry for Becky. It's been a really difficult time for him," Eustace told BBC Radio Derby.

"Having worked with him at Blackburn, to bringing him to the football club this season was a great success from the recruitment side for sure to be able to get a player of that quality here and to showcase him over the course of the season everyone was exited for that.

"But this is all part of his learning and development, we a really sorry for hm but he will come back stronger."

Meanwhile, on-loan Crystal Palace midfielder David Ozoh is expected to be out for another three weeks after limping off the pitch in Derby's 2-1 victory against Blackburn.

Former Derby striker Phil Gee has said the Rams' in-form forward Carlton Morris would be "a dream to play with".

Morris has scored 10 goals in 15 Championship appearances since arriving in the summer from Luton Town.

"When we played Luton last season I said he's the type of the player we need because we're getting the ball up front and it's coming right back where as with Carlton we put the ball up to him and he'll hold it up, he'll hold the defenders off, " Gee told BBC Radio Derby.

"As a striker myself, who used to like to feed off a bigger man, he'd be a dream to play with."

Morris' goals and overall play have been an influential component of a Derby side that has recorded five straight wins to move up to 10th in the Championship table and within two points of the play-off places.

John Eustace's side host Watford at Pride Park on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

"He's confident. When you're scoring you get confidence," Gee added. "Every time you get a chance in your mind you're going to score because you're confident that that ball is going to go in.

"You get a dry spell and you sort of start snatching at things. You can see with Carlton the confidence is oozing out of him. He's one-on-one with the keeper, you know he's going to score."

"Things have completely changed now, haven't they? It's got to the point where we're now looking up rather than looking down."

BBC Radio Derby's Dominic Dietrich and Ed Dawes are joined by Second Tier podcasters Justin Peach and Ryan Dilks to reflect on the Rams' five-match Championship winning streak which has taken them into the top 10 and within two points of the play-offs.

John Eustace's side return to action after the international break with the visit of Watford to Pride Park on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

Listen to the full episode of Rams Weekly and more Derby County content on BBC Sounds.

Image source, Shuttershock

Rod Thomas, a member of Derby County's 1974-75 First Division title-winning side, has died at the age of 78.

The defender made 118 appearance for the Rams after joining them from Swindon, with whom he won the League Cup, in 1973.

Thomas was a key member of Dave MacKay's championship side which finished two points clear of Liverpool and Ipswich Town and went on to win the Charity Shield ahead of the following season.

He also won 50 caps for Wales and went on to play for both Cardiff City and Newport County.

"Jacob Widell Zetterstrom has come in real big time for Derby County this season and there were some serious questions about him as well going into the start of the season.

"I think they've simplified his game. They've taken the risk out of it and I think that's helped him."

Former Rams striker Malcolm Christie and BBC Radio Derby's Dominic Dietrich deep dive into each member of the Derby County squad in a two-part special.

Part one focuses on the goalkeepers, defenders and midfielders that have helped the Rams to their five match winning streak.

Listen to the full episode of Rams Weekly and more Derby County content on BBC Sounds.

Amelia Warren
Fan writer

Image source, Shuttershock

Last week I touched on how the squad's togetherness is having a positive impact on their performances, a trait which once again shone through, as Derby County overcame Blackburn Rovers at Ewood Park on Saturday.

Another important factor in being able to hit such a good run of form has been the way Derby have scored goals, and created chances for their strikers.

Four of the Rams' past seven league goals have come from crosses, with right wing-back Joe Ward providing three assists in that time.

Since joining the club, he has been credited for his crossing and ability at set-pieces. These are qualities which had been hard to showcase consistently because of the lack of physicality, and the presence of an 'out-and-out number 9' in Derby's attack.

Until this season of course.

With the introductions of Ben Brereton Diaz, Patrick Agyemang, and the man of the moment, Carlton Morris, Derby now have a presence up front.

They are attacking players who have bags of stature and strength, and excel by utilising those qualities to get on the end of balls into the box. This has allowed Ward to have arguably his best run of form in a Derby shirt.

There have always been glimpses of brilliance with Ward. The main moment that comes to mind is his wonder free-kick against West Bromwich Albion in the Carabao Cup earlier this season. Not forgetting that he had spent seven months sidelined with injury before that moment.

As more of an attack-minded defender, it wasn't suitable for head coach John Eustace to play him as part of a back four at the beginning of the campaign and, until the return of Sondre Langas, Derby couldn't deploy their preferred back-five system.

With summer signing Max Johnston's injury sidelining him for six to eight weeks, Ward has been offered the chance to reignite his Derby career, and so far I would say he's done exactly that, consistently creating chances that have produced match-winning moments.

I would also argue on current form it may be difficult for Johnston to walk back into the starting line-up when he returns. With Derby possessing such an aerial threat in the box at present, you would be surprised to see perhaps the club's best crosser of a ball drop to the bench.

However, being able to have such strength in depth in pretty much every position this season only reinforces the ambitions of all at the club, and the direction Derby are heading.

Once more we're seeing Eustace bring the best out of players who haven't been able to make their mark consistently in the past. As a supporter, it feels extremely refreshing to have so much competition for places rather than a predictable starting XI and bench because we're having to make do with what we've got.

I'm excited to see what else is to come from Ward after the international break. If he can maintain his form and, more importantly, his fitness, he could play a really key part in where the Rams finish come May.

Derby County boss John Eustace spoke to BBC Radio Derby after Saturday's 2-1 win at Blackburn Rovers.

"I'm very proud, obviously. I'm delighted with the effort," he said.

"I thought in the first half we were really good and in the second half there as nothing in the game, it was a bit dead, and we gave them something to fight for.

"The way the lads dug in at the end at the back end of a three-game week was sensational.

"We are still trying to find our way as a team, but the most important thing is that we are being competitive and that we keep building."

Image source, Opta

Subplots galore as two of the Championship's form teams meet on Saturday lunchtime with red-hot Derby County heading to Blackburn Rovers (12:30 GMT).

It's a first return for John Eustace who swapped a play-off push at Ewood Park for a relegation scrap at Pride Park in February.

Eustace's Rams beat Hull City 2-1 on Tuesday to make it four straight league wins and climb to 11th, within three points of the play-off places.

Valerien Ismael's Rovers won 1-0 at Bristol City on the same night to register a third straight win and lie seven places but only four points back, with a game in hand, and now have a seven point cushion over the relegation zone.

• Blackburn Rovers have won each of their past six home league games against Derby County, since a goalless draw in October 2015.

• Derby County won 2-1 when they last faced Blackburn Rovers in March this year, last winning back-to-back league meetings with the Rovers in the 2014-15 campaign under Steve McClaren.

• Blackburn Rovers have won each of their past three league games, more wins than they managed across their first 10 Championship matches this season (W2 D1 L7) – they could win three in a row to nil for the first time since December 2024, a run of five under current Derby County boss John Eustace.

• Derby County are currently on the joint-longest winning run in the EFL (4 – level with Stockport County) and the Rams will be aiming to win five consecutive league games for the first time since December 2023 in League One.

• Carlton Morris has scored nine goals in his 14 league appearances for Derby County, more than he managed last season for Luton Town (8) – only in 2022-23 (20), 2023-24 (11) and 2020-21 (10) has the 29-year-old reached double figures in his league career.

Derby County head coach John Eustace has been speaking to the media ahead of his side's trip to Blackburn Rovers on Saturday (12:30 BST).

Here are the main talking points:

• Following Derby's four-game winning run, Eustace puts the recent success down to the playing squad "believing the process" and having the right attitude for winning. The squad had to battle through "injuries, suspensions and lack of form" before settling into a winning rhythm, he said.

• Eustace is impressed with the progress made by goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterstrom - particularly with his kicking - under the guidance of specialist coach Paul Clements, describing him as "one of the top performers" in the league at the moment.

• The return to Ewood Park for Eustace will be "fine", he said. Eustace managed Saturday's opponents Blackburn last season before leaving to join the Rams and said he thinks of his decision "positively" describing Derby as his "home".

• Patrick Agyemang is yet to fulfil his potential in his new role on the left-hand side. He's "doing well" adapting to Championship football simultaneously to a new position, said Eustace.

• Owen Beck trained on Thursday. He'll be assessed ahead of the Blackburn game and if he is unavailable on Saturday, Eustace is "confident" he will be available for the Watford game following the international break.

Listen to more from John Eustace and all things Derby County on Sounds.

Amelia Warren
Fan writer

Image source, Shutterstock

Derby County's sudden upturn in form has been nothing short of spectacular, with four wins out of five matches since returning from the October international break.

A combination of five at the back, with energy and technical ability from David Ozoh and Bobby Clark in midfield, a number nine who can't stop scoring, and a real sense of togetherness has led the Rams to look pretty unstoppable in recent weeks.

Perhaps one of the most notable signs of the squad's togetherness came at the end of Tuesday's 2-1 win over Hull City, as Lars Jorgen-Salvesen came off the bench to score his first Pride Park goal for the club.

After the Norwegian struck the winner, the Derby bench erupted, all of the outfield players sprinted the length of the pitch to join in the celebrations, and at full-time Salvesen was pushed towards the South Stand by his peers to take all the plaudits from the fans.

Pretty special scenes to witness for a player who has struggled to get many minutes, has had to work extremely hard after spending time out with injury, and clearly has so much passion for the club.

Salvesen's heroics haven't been the only sign that this team seems to have a strong bond.

At the weekend, Carlton Morris was praised on the pitch after the match, and later on social media, by all of his team-mates for scoring his first career hat-trick.

He also put in a crunching tackle on a Hull player, after Ozoh had been on the receiving end of a late challenge minutes prior.

Danny Batth stormed off the bench to defend fellow centre-back Dion Sanderson at full-time last night, as tensions from both camps boiled over.

And Jacob Zetterstrom celebrated as if Derby had scored as he raced out of his goal to chest bump Sondre Langas for making a last ditch, goal-saving tackle.

These moments are just a few examples of how close-knit this team seem to be at the moment. The connection between staff, players, and fans feels like it is at its peak since John Eustace joined the club.

Whilst you have to have the quality to win football matches, which Derby absolutely have for the past few weeks, you also have to have a group of players who are willing to fight for each other, and that has been shown in abundance over the past four matches.

No Championship games are easy, but if there was a fixture where the squad would need to stick together and fight for each other, it would be Blackburn Rovers away.

After Eustace took the bragging rights last season, Blackburn fans, staff, and players are no doubt ready to taunt their former boss for 90 minutes on Saturday, as they 'welcome' him back to Ewood Park.

With both teams going into the fixture in good form, and with plenty of incentive from both camps to win the game, the Rams' togetherness will be more crucial than ever on their quest to make it five from five, and remain in the top half of the table.

You can often catch Amelia Warren, external as a guest on BBC Radio Derby.

Derby County boss John Eustace spoke to BBC Radio Derby following Tuesday night's 2-1 victory against Hull City.

"I thought first half we were excellent. We were playing against a really good team that had been six unbeaten, and who had a couple of really good wins," he said.

"In the second half we lost our way a little bit, we dropped too deep. But it's about the squad and we found a way in the second half to make sure we got the three points.

"I thought the way we defended the box was excellent, Jake [Widell Zetterstrom] made a couple of top saves. And when you are going through difficult moments you have to defend with your life, and we certainly did that in the second half.

"I'm really proud of Lars [Salvesen] scoring. He has obviously been through a lot since he has been at the football club and he has worked his absolute socks off to get into a position to challenge Carlton [Morris] and to get onto the bench. I thought he took his goal very well."