Nottingham Forest

Pat Riddell
Fan writer

Nottingham Forest's season will only really be defined by one thing - survival.

How they achieve that is the question and there are three things they might need between now and the end of the season to do so:

Clarity on points deductions

The profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) punishment makes achieving safety all the more difficult, but four points is not as bad as it could have been. More importantly, perhaps, is whether Everton receive a further points deduction - the Toffees are currently four points above the Reds with a game in hand. Meanwhile, Luton Town also have some testing games to come.

Getting goals and wins

All of that might mean nothing though if Nuno Espirito Santo cannot get his team winning again. Forest's second bad run of the season sees us with one win in nine Premier League games - just one this calendar year.

The fitness of Taiwo Awoniyi and Chris Wood will have a big part in the run-in, and if we have at least one of the two strikers fit at any one time - and scoring goals - that will undoubtedly help a side who have real issues keeping a clean sheet.

Fighting spirit

But what Forest need the most, probably, is the togetherness, spirit and determination that we saw at the end of last season. If they can ignore all the noise, play for each other and the shirt, then they will surely turn a corner in the coming games.

Surely?

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Former Nottingham Forest manager Mark Warburton reflects on the club's four-point deduction for breaking profit and sustainability rules by £34.5m on BBC World Service.

He told Sportsworld he understands the fans' "frustrations" because "Forest have had to go out and buy players to be competitive".

The latest episode of Luton In The Prem sees the team discuss news of Nottingham Forest's points deduction and its implications for the Hatters.

Forest have been deducted four points for breaching Premier League profit and sustainability rules. The move leaves Luton 17th in the table, a place above Forest who occupy a relegation place. The Reds could yet appeal their deduction however.

Everton have already had points deducted, their penalty reduced and yet face a further possible sanction for a second breach.

"If Forest do appeal that appeal can only be heard after the Everton case is finished," said BBC Three Counties Radio's Geoff Doyle.

"Everton’s second case will now be looked at. Once that has been heard, then Forest can appeal. If I am Everton, I will co-operate as much as I can as they got two points added back on because of that. If you’re Everton now you’re thinking 'co-operate as that will get us two points back'."

BBC Three Counties' Simon Oxley added: "We still don’t know if Forest will appeal. Speaking to our colleagues at BBC Nottingham, the feeling was if they got six or more points deducted they may appeal but if it was three or four, they might just suck it up.

"Nobody seems satisfied. Forest feel harshly treated as they were trying to compete in the Premier League. Everton are saying 'how come they got four and we got six?'

"I think Rob Edwards Is right, just keep going and playing and see where we end up. I find it inconceivable we could get to the final game against Fulham, Luton doing a dance around the pitch having stayed up and then two weeks later – you’re relegated."

Has Ross Barkley played more or less minutes than Chiedozie Ogbene this season? Listen to Luton In The Prem for a higher-lower quiz on the squad.

The full episode is here

AC Milan will look to offload Belgium forward Divock Origi, 28, when the former Liverpool player returns from his loan spell at Nottingham Forest. (Calciomercato - in Italian, external)

Want more transfer news? Read Friday's full gossip column

It has been an eventful week for Nottingham Forest after they were deducted four points for breaching Premier League profit and sustainability rules. The decision means they drop into the relegation zone, below Luton Town.

On the latest episode of BBC Radio Nottingham's Shut Up And Show More Football podcast, David Jackson and former Forest boss Mark Warburton spoke about the implications of the punishment.

"It's a mixed reaction in terms of it being well documented that Forest and Everton faced penalties, Everton further penalties. You then have the reduction in the Everton 10 points to six," said Warburton.

"So I think, if you're a Forest fan, without being pessimistic, expecting a points deduction, six would have been the worst case, four is probably the best case and one of the best case scenarios.

"The things for me is how much of it centres around the Brennan Johnson transfer and the increase in revenue that they gained by being patient. Also I noted the comments about the tone of the response from the Premier League, which seemed to frustrate Forest, I don't know what was actually said but I just think they're expecting it. I guess, watching from afar, it's probably as good a scenario as they could have expected."

Listen to the Shut Up And Show More Football podcast on BBC Sounds

Nottingham Forest, Everton and West Ham are keeping tabs on 21-year-old English winger Karamoko Dembele, who has impressed this season after joining Blackpool on loan from French club Brest. (HITC), external

An appeal by Nottingham Forest against their four-point deduction for breaching financial rules could risk the punishment being increased. (Times - subscription required), external

Meanwhile, Forest face having to sell one of their star players by the end of June to avoid another points deduction for breaching financial rules next season. (Times - subscription required), external

Want more transfer news? Read Wednesday's full gossip column

Nick Mashiter
Senior football news reporter

The talk is focused on any possible Nottingham Forest appeal after their four-point deduction for breaking profit and sustainability rules, but what about the Premier League?

BBC Sport understands any Premier League appeal against the punishment handed out by the independent commission on Monday is highly unlikely.

The written reasons showed the league eyed a six-point penalty - and potentially eight points to reflect that Forest had broken the threshold much more than Everton.

Their £34.5m breach was much greater than Everton’s £19.5m - with the Toffees receiving a six-point deduction, reduced after their initial 10-point penalty in November.

Forest’s early plea and co-operation during the process also helped their case, with the punishment reduced by two points.

Image source, Getty Images

Premier League relegation is "not going to be decided on the football pitch", says Nottingham Forest fan Sarah Brown.

The Reds have become the second club this season, alongside Everton, to be deducted points for breaching the league's profit and sustainability rules after they had four points docked on Monday.

This comes as discussions continue over new financial regulations that are set to come in this summer.

Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live, Brown said: "Let's hope they can get it [new financial regulations] right this time because it is a bit of a shambles, it's not a fair playing field.

"The points differences they're looking at this season, they seem to have gone for Everton and Forest. The talk is about Forest being in [financial] trouble, but I believe we were in the PSR [breaches] for just two months so I don't think we have a financial issue we just overstepped the mark for those two months, but we did break the rules.

"I'm a forest fan, I'm not going to think it's fair. It could have been worse, definitely could have been worse as it could have been six, but listening to some of the interviews by some of the experts, it sounded like we might get away with three. I don't know where they pick the numbers from, it seems to be out of thin air.

"It's the fans again, we're trying to watch our football and support our team and getting points and wins in the Premier League is so hard to come by it is unbelievable. Then just to take four points off you, it's not going to be decided on the football pitch."

The four-point punishment leaves Forest in the relegation zone above last season's promoted sides Burnley and Sheffield United and one point behind Luton Town.

Brown added: "We want to make this a competitive league but it just isn't. How do you compete when you haven’t got the income coming in? Because to have the income to generate that kind of income you need to be in the Premier League for an established time."

Asked if the Reds can avoid the drop, she added: "I'm going to say yes because I think the players we have got, the team we have got and the fans, we should be, we should be better than Luton. We have spent the money so lets go and do it."

Pat Riddell
Fan writer

With Nottingham Forest’s profit and sustainability rules’ (PSR) four-point penalty set to be appealed, there remains an argument that the Reds’ inability to defend set-pieces is the real problem this season.

Owner Evangelos Marinakis was apparently frustrated about the club’s lack of a specialist set-piece coach back in November, and the appointment of Simon Rusk duly followed in December.

As it turns out, Rusk has hardly been involved with the first team since Nuno Espirito Santo arrived the same month. And Forest’s biggest problem on the pitch persists.

Another late goal conceded on Saturday to Luton Town meant the Reds yet again failed to keep a clean sheet and were left rueing missed chances to finish off the game.

It was the 19th goal conceded from a set-piece, equating to 37% of the 51 we have let in this season, more than any other Premier League club.

Concentration levels, communication, confusion about man-to-man marking and zonal marking leaving players free at the edge of the box… it is a catalogue of errors that could cost the club heavily.

Similarly, scoring from set-pieces has been pitiful - just four compared with Saturday’s opponents Luton, who have 13 - is equally an issue. Perhaps with knowledge of the PSR punishment, Nuno and the coaching staff can now concentrate on an issue they have some control over.

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Leicester City defender Conor Coady says "it's really tough" for footballers to be focused on the pitch when there are off-field distractions being reported daily in the media.

"I can always speak from a player's point of view and it's so, so tough being in the dressing room when you're reading things in the media about it being this day or that day," said Coady on BBC Radio 5 Live's Monday Night Club.

"It's a tough season anyway and you're struggling to win and pick up points, but you know at any point you could also be docked six, four or eight points.

"You have to keep your mind focused as a footballer, but it's really tough when you see another bit of news has broken.

"Burnley will be looking at it and sniffing because they are only five points off Forest now. It affects so many teams and I can't imagine what those teams are going through."

Listen to the full discussion on BBC Sounds

Image source, Getty Images

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire says Nottingham Forest's punishment for breaching financial rules "does seem harsh".

Forest was handed a four-point deduction after being found to have exceeded the £61m yearly loss threshold by £34.5m.

As a newly promoted club, the Reds did not have the benefit of having the £105m yearly loss threshold of established clubs in the Premier League.

Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live, Maguire said: "Forest were having to operate with one hand held behind their back because they were allowed to lose only £61m over three years because they had just been promoted from the Championship whereas other established clubs in the Premier League - the likes of Crystal Palace or Brighton - they could lose £105m, so it does seem harsh.

"If Forest were allowed to lose £105m, they would've been just within the allowable limit and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

"The reason for that [the differential] is that if clubs have been in the Championship they're only allowed to lose £13m each year and if they've been in the Premier League they're allowed to lose £35m, so in the case of Forest it was 35 plus two 13s, which gave them a loss of £61m, which was their target."

A new financial system, likely to be based on Uefa's model, is currently being considered by the Premier League and clubs to replace the current profit and sustainability rules.

Uefa's rules limit spending on player and coach wages, transfers, and agent fees to a percentage of the club's revenue, starting at 90% this season and reducing to 70% from 2025-26.

Maguire added: "We're almost certain to change to a wage cap from the summer of 2024. Unfortunately, that will just reinforce the existing imbalances within the game because you can have a club such as Manchester City which generates £700m a year and can spend 70% of its income - so it can spend £490m on wages and a club such as Forest, perhaps generating £200m, can only spend £140m on wages.

"So we're not going to have better rules, were just going to have different ones."

We asked for your thoughts on Nottingham Forest's four-point deduction for breaching the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules. The punishment has dragged the Reds into the relegation zone.

Here is a snapshot of your comments:

Daniel: I think the overall punishment is probably fair, given the fact we know some of the spending was openly reckless and didn't even involve the manager. That said, I think the reduced losses for teams coming up from the Championship is rather unfair. The first year up in the Premier League is when you are most likely to need the extra spending, so that you can actually compete!

Lee: The whole thing seems unfair and a mess. It's not right being punished for something the owner can afford and had tried to balance the books with more profit in sales. Worse still, Manchester City still haven't been heard at all for more charges, and the very rules that have deducted our points won't be in place next season! Shocking. I hope we stay up!

Kevin: I say accept the punishment and get on with the rest of the season. Although the manager and the squad keep saying they don’t think about the proceedings and just get on with the fixtures, all of this is clearly in the back of their minds. If we appeal, there will be further uncertainty running into May.

Shaun: Appeal, appeal, appeal. If they were confident of winning an appeal they would have given us a bigger deduction. If it drags on past the end of the season, so be it. It will show the Premier League that their process is not fit for purpose.

Joel: It could've been a lot worse. If we can't overturn a one point deficit to overtake Luton then we have no right to expect to be playing Premier League football. Heads down and let's get cracking.

Ravinreg: As a long-time supporter, I am gutted. Yes we probably breached the rules, however nothing has been done about Chelsea or Manchester City. If the Premier League wants an open and fair competition, they need apply the rules to all and give the promoted clubs a level playing field. Otherwise, let the top six play in a European League.

What do you think of the punishment? Make your choice here

Nick Mashiter
Senior football news reporter

Nottingham Forest’s four-point deduction plunges them into the relegation zone but it is not as black and white as that.

While the punishment may be seen as being on the lighter side – especially after Everton’s initial 10-point penalty in November – the club’s co-operation helped their case, although they feel they have been hard done by in the process.

The sale of Brennan Johnson to Tottenham for a fee worth over £45m was central to their defence, led by sports lawyer Nick De Marco.

Wales international Johnson left on 1 September, outside the assessment period but after the club had rejected three bids from Brentford in July and August – the final and highest at £40m - and a 50m euro offer from Atletico Madrid on 30 June.

The striker, who came through the club’s academy, was not keen to join the Bees at that point but Tottenham also had to bide their time to make their move – all factors that impacted Forest’s position.

His transfer to Spurs was ultimately linked to Harry Kane’s move to Bayern Munich, with Spurs able to move for a replacement once the England skipper left for Germany in his own move reportedly worth an initial £82m.

Forest regard raising more money by selling Johnson when they did – rather than selling earlier and cheaper – remains in the spirit of the profit and sustainability rules. They stuck to their valuation and sold within the same transfer window. There is a feeling at the City Ground they tried to work towards what the regulations stand for.

Forest never disputed the breach – they knew what the timeframe and rules were – and they are not unique in terms of needing to work within the regulations but as a newly promoted club, operating under constraints of smaller losses, they are unique in that sense.

There is a growing sense among Premier League clubs the current rules do not suit even the nuances of the transfer window. However, while they are due to be tweaked, they remain the rules that Forest have been punished by.

An appeal would not be a surprise.

Simon Stone
Chief football news reporter

Nottingham Forest will have seven days to appeal to the Premier League about their points deduction.

The response to the appeal has to be sent within seven days of that. A directions hearing to agree a date for the appeal to be heard will then have to take place within seven days of that.

The absolute backstop date for the appeal hearing to be concluded is 24 May, which is after the final games.

However, the guidance in the regulations is that 'if possible’' it should be done a long time before 24 May and we have reached this point three weeks ahead of deadline so there is no reason why it should not be done before the final games.

Image source, Getty Images

We want to know your views on the four-point deduction.

Too harsh? Too lenient? About right?

Or should it have just been a fine?

Make your selection here

Nottingham Forest are now 18th in the table with nine games remaining after receiving a deduction of four point due to Premier League profit and sustainability rules breaches.

We want your thoughts.

Is it a better outcome than you were expecting - or do you feel it is too harsh?

What does it mean for the Reds' survival chances?

Let us know here