Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer

Already on Saturday, drivers were talking about the chance of rain in the race, and the forecast says that has only become more likely since. The risk is now high. If it is wet for the start, teams think the chances of a standing start are low, as in the rain on Friday it was apparent that there was a lot more standing water on the right-hand side of the grid than the left. Race control is aware of that and of the potential consequences for unfairness.

If it’s dry, the teams feel the race is likely to be a one-stop, despite Pirelli’s predictions of a two-stop being the best strategy. Overtaking is hard at Suzuka, and the soft tyre is limited on miles. So the likely strategy would be medium-hard.

In the wet, tyres are a major concern. The intermediates - always the favoured tyre if it’s possible to run it in the wet because the extreme wet lacks grip - were starting to degrade and ‘grain’ quickly on Friday. So a wet race could be a two- or even three-stop.

If the tyres continue to behave like this, it is a problem for Mercedes, who used three sets of intermediates on Friday, and have only two left. Rivals were confused as to why they used so many tyres on a pointless practice day.

Time loss for a pit stop is around 22.5 seconds. DRS is worth 0.4secs a lap - a low number.

Sam Bird
Formula E driver on Chequered Flag qualifying review

Max Verstappen is starting in the best possible position. If it is dry he knows he has the pace to pull away, but if it is a wet start start he is going to be out of the spray.

The spray at Suzuka is quite severe. He has the best visibility and should be able to do a decent job out front.

Most drivers after qualifying yesterday mentioned the weather as a potential factor in today's race.

We saw rain on Friday but dry conditions on Saturday and although today's 53-lap race carries the threat of some gloomy clouds on the horizon, it shouldn't hamper the schedule like in Singapore last weekend.

However, the umbrellas and hoods have gone up...

Image source, Google

Image source, Getty Images

Away from his skirmish with Lando Norris and Max Verstappen echoed every driver on the grid by saying how great it was to return to the iconic Suzuka circuit after two seasons away.

"It was pretty incredible to drive here again, and especially in qualifying, when you're on low fuel these cars really come alive through the first sector," said Verstappen. "So yeah, of course very happy to be on pole, but also in general, just super happy to be back here."

Image source, Getty Images

Lando Norris, on the hand, told Sky Sports he thought the Red Bull driver was in the wrong.

"It was quite clear [Verstappen tried to defend]," said the McLaren driver. "There's no rule on doing what you can do but doing what he did, is something you cannot do.

"People always overtake before the last corner - as much as everyone always agrees to it. Everyone always does it. It doesn't matter, he probably would've done the same in my situation, but I wouldn't have swerved at him if I was in his situation."

Norris added that "for sure" he would've expected a penalty if he had committed the same offence.

There are always two sides to a story, so here is Max Verstappen's version of events. "We were all on our out laps and all trying to line up to create a gap for everyone and somehow [Lando Norris] still wanted to get me into the chicane," said the championship leader. "But I was at the point of accelerating and I was on very cold tyres and I had a little moment - so that's why had to drive around me.

"But if you're just a bit more respectful - the way everyone is anyway lining up - I don't think anyone is trying to pass through that last chicane. So basically by trying to pass me you are creating that kind of problem."

Lando Norris and Max Verstappen just about avoided disaster during Q3 after the Red Bull driver nearly lost control of his car as he tried to get heat into his tyres coming out of 130R. Norris, closing at speed behind, had to take to the grass to avoid a collision.

The two drivers were summoned to see the stewards after the session to explain what happened. After a short meeting, Verstappen was given a reprimand and gets to keep his spot at the front of the grid.

The stewards did note, however, it was "the driver's responsibility to at all times maintain control of their car" and that all previous such incidents had resulted in a reprimand.

Image source, Getty Images

The fight for pole at Suzuka came down to just 0.01 seconds as Max Verstappen beat rival Charles Leclerc to the coveted position in the top-10 shootout.

Verstappen made an error on his own final lap, running wide at Turn Two and losing some bodywork, but held on.

Ferrari's Carlos Sainz took third ahead of the second Red Bull of Sergio Perez.

The day wasn't over for Verstappen, however, as a trip to the stewards was on the cards, along with McLaren's Lando Norris...

Almost a lie-in for us today folks after the last two call times.

Lights go out at 06:00 BST for the Japanese Grand Prix, with full commentary available on BBC Radio 5 Live, the BBC Sounds app and at the top of this page using the audio icon.

Image source, Getty Images

Max Verstappen can become a double world champion by the time most of us here in the UK have had breakfast, if he wins the Japanese Grand Prix and picks up the bonus point for fastest lap.

The Dutchman has put himself in the right spot at Suzuka by claiming pole position during Saturday's qualifying session.

Will Verstapen retain his title at the home of Honda? Or will the party be put on hold until the United States Grand Prix later this month?