Pro14: Test matches may take biggest toll on Richard Cockerill's Edinburgh
- Published
Scotland squad announcements could become nervous times for Edinburgh coach Richard Cockerill
Pro14: Edinburgh v Ospreys | |
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Venue: Murrayfield Date: 3 October Time: 19:35 BST |
When Gregor Townsend named his 38-man training squad for the 2020 Six Nations, Richard Cockerill would have braced himself for the worst. In that moment he lost 16 players - among them, four props and five back-rows.
That time is coming again, probably accompanied by the Jaws soundtrack playing on a loop in the Edinburgh coach's head.
The good news is that he probably won't lose Jamie Bhatti this time around, given that Oli Kebble has now qualified for Scotland and may take Bhatti's place. Other good news: Matt Scott will no longer be a loss because he's no longer at Edinburgh.
The bad news? Since the Six Nations, Duhan van der Merwe has qualified on residency rules and Jaco van der Walt will qualify in mid-November.
That's two important Edinburgh players he may have to do without for chunks of their Pro14 season, which opens with a home game against the Ospreys on Saturday. Van der Merwe will certainly be included in Townsend's wider squads for the autumn and beyond. Van der Walt has a decent chance.
In the autumn, Edinburgh will play five Pro14 games on the same weekends as Scotland Test matches.
Normally, players would get released back to their clubs if they're not required, but this season it's a bit more complicated. There's talks afoot of just removing all of the home-based Test players from club duty until the six-Test autumn series is done in early December.
If they do it, it would be down to logistics. The fact that some Pro14 matches are on Mondays is bad news for a coach hoping to get some players back from international camp. Covid-19 is hardly a help either. Townsend may want to keep as many of his 37, 38, 39-man squad as he can in a bubble.
No matter what way you look at it, when the Test matches begin, it's going to be brutally hard on Cockerill and his counterpart at Glasgow, Danny Wilson.
Youth to get chance to flourish?
It's a season when youth will surely get its chance - and Edinburgh have some boys who could kick on - Nathan Chamberlain and Roan Frostwick, the half-backs in the Scotland Under-20 team that put 52 points on Wales in March, are both under Cockerill's wing.
The blindside in that victory over the Welsh, Rory Darge, and the openside, Connor Boyle, are also Edinburgh lads. They've got some promising youngsters at Murrayfield.
This season more than any other, it's impossible to get an angle on what might happen. Already, before a ball has been kicked, we've seen coronavirus having an impact.
Jamie Ritchie is self-isolating because of virus protocols. Glasgow prop Zander Fagerson and back-row Tom Gordon are doing the same. The pair of them are unavailable for the Warriors' trip to Connacht on Saturday.
This is happening now, when the international players are available for selection. If it happens again with a vengeance when these guys aren't available, then Lord only knows how these club coaches are going to field strong squads.
Strength in depth has never been more important. The quality of each organisation's academy will be tested big time in the months ahead.
Edinburgh have only just moved on from their disappointment of last season, of course. Two more knockout games under Cockerill, two more games they could and should have won and two more games they left behind them.
The old maxim about a team having to go through the pain of defeat before they learn the secret to victory is largely true, but Edinburgh could almost write the book on it now. Under Cockerill they've had five losses in a row in knockout rugby and they've had major regrets after each one.
The Pro14 semi-final defeat by Ulster at Murrayfield was the most grievous of the lot. You sense that they still hadn't fully processed it before heading off to Bordeaux for the Challenge Cup quarter-final. That was another scarring afternoon.
Champion teams grow bigger from such disappointment. Glasgow endured failure on the road to eventual success in the Pro12 in 2015. Munster had epic levels of heartache before conquering Europe. Rugby is full of such redemption stories. Edinburgh's task is to become the latest chapter.
Can Edinburgh learn from mistakes?
If they can get enough of their best players on the park ,gthen they're as good as anybody bar Leinster. If Edinburgh can survive the many games without their Test players and keep themselves in the hunt until the cavalry returns after the Six Nations, their power should tell and get them into the play-offs.
What they do from there is another tale. They've flunked the biggest tests so often that it would take a brave person to make any bold predictions of a first trophy. On paper, they're good enough to go close but, on paper, they looked a better side than Ulster.
Cockerill will be one determined character, that's for sure. As a player he knew all about against-the-odds challenges and pain of defeat. All of it only intensified his rage for victory.
There'll be chaos ahead, but he sounds like a man who's steeled for it. His players will need to carry that same durability with them in this season of strangeness.