Rugby World Cup: What are the home nations’ chances?

England have not lost since a defeat by New Zealand in July 2019

The Rugby World Cup begins on Saturday - a year later than planned and plenty has changed in that time.

A pandemic-induced break from Test rugby means five-time champions and hosts New Zealand are not the superpower they once were.

Instead it is England who have surged to take the favourites tag, with Wales and Scotland set to go head to head in their pool for a quarter-final spot and Ireland failing to qualify.

Each side will play three group games, with the top two in each of the three pools and best two third-placed teams reaching the quarter-finals.

Here is a look at each team's chances before the tournament begins.

Record-breaking England seek third title

Two-time champions England go into the tournament as overwhelming favourites to claim a first title since 2014.

The Red Roses have been top of the world rankings since November 2020 and, earlier in September, became the first team in history to win 25 Tests in a row.

They have never finished lower than third at the tournament so will certainly expect to get out of Pool C, which also features France, South Africa and Fiji.

Along with hosts and defending champions New Zealand, France have the greatest chance of upsetting England's bid for the trophy, but neither has beaten Simon Middleton's side in the last three years.

Les Bleues have long been the Red Roses' greatest rivals in the Six Nations, but have lost to England in each of their last 10 meetings.

South Africa are ranked 11th in the world and count Exeter centre Zintle Mpupha and powerful lock Catha Jacobs among their squad.

Competing in their first World Cup, Fiji are a bit of an unknown but will benefit from the individual brilliance of six players who were part of the Olympic bronze and Commonwealth silver medal-winning sevens teams.

• Talling and Kabeya in England squad

• World Cup attendance record to be broken

Wales and Scotland fight for last-eight place

The first professional contracts for Wales' women began in January 2022

The early fixture between Wales and Scotland on 9 October will be a crucial one for both sides.

With two third-place qualifying spots for the quarter-finals, victory in that match could be the difference in a pool that also includes New Zealand and Australia.

Australia have not been tested against European opponents in the last year, making it hard to predict their chances, but they do boast sevens players who have won the World Cup, World Series and Commonwealth titles this year.

Based on world ranking, second-placed New Zealand are set to finish top, with Australia's ranking of seventh making them next best. Wales are ninth and Scotland 10th.

However, it is hoped Wales will continue to improve since being given professional contracts earlier in 2022.

They finished third in the 2022 Women's Six Nations, beating last-placed Scotland 24-19, but lost 53-7 to New Zealand in a training game in 2021.

• Lillicrap to captain Wales

Scotland behind in race to professionalism

Scotland beat Colombia to earn World Cup qualification in February

Scotland are behind Wales in their professional evolution, with contracts due to come in after the World Cup, but the squad was given funding for 11 weeks' full-time training before the tournament.

For Bryan Easson's side, just making it to New Zealand was cause for celebration given they last competed in a World Cup in 2010.

Many of the side will be familiar faces to English fans, given 21 of the 32-player squad - including star backs Helen Nelson and Chloe Rollie - compete in the Premier 15s league.

Scotland have also been preparing for the tournament in the shadow of the death of a team-mate, with Siobhan Cattigan's family calling for an independent inquiry, saying rugby-related brain damage caused a decline in the 26-year-old's health before her death in November.

The Scottish Rugby Union said in August it would not sanction an external inquiry into Cattigan's death.

• Scotland take experienced squad to World Cup

New Zealand hope for late surge

New Zealand are attempting to bounce back from disappointingly heavy defeats to France and England in 2021, followed by a damning cultural review earlier this year.

England may find some comfort in those record 2021 wins, but history is on the side of the Black Ferns, given they have beaten the Red Roses in four World Cup finals and claimed five titles overall.

In the last six months World Cup-winning coaches from the men's game have been drafted in, with Wayne Smith leading the side and Graham Henry offering support.

Even legendary fly-half Dan Carter has been involved, helping full-back Renee Holmes with her goal-kicking, while esteemed scrum coach Mike Cron has boosted the set-piece.

In Pool B, Canada and the United States are littered with Premier 15s players and, ranked third and sixth in the world respectively, will both be hoping for at least a place in the last eight.

Italy will provide worthy competition in that group, while Japan have claimed some impressive wins under Canadian head coach Lesley McKenzie and may challenge for a surprise quarter-final spot.

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