English Premiership: Who will finish in top four play-off spots?
- Published
Eight teams are still in the running to finish in the top four, alongside Saracens
There are only four rounds of the Premiership to go and the race for the top four is going down to the wire.
Current league leaders Saracens are 16 points clear of fifth place and have already secured their spot in the play-offs.
Sale, eight points clear in second place, are all but assured of joining them, barring a complete meltdown.
At the foot of the table, only Newcastle and Bath - 12 points adrift of the rest - are out of the running for the top four.
But that means there are still seven other clubs - as well as Sale - vying for the remaining play-off spots.
BBC Sport looks at how each club might fare and how their chances of clinching a coveted top-four place stack up.
Second: Sale - 56 points
Still to play - A Bristol, A Gloucester, H Newcastle
Sale have a four-week gap between their last Premiership fixture and their next game
Sale have not dipped out of the top two all season and, unless total disaster befalls them, are highly likely to join Sarries in booking a home semi-final.
Eight points clear of Leicester and Northampton, the Sharks only need seven points in all likelihood from their final three games - away to Bristol and Gloucester, home to Newcastle - to guarantee second place.
It has not been entirely smooth sailing of late, however, with three of their six league defeats this season coming in the last four games.
A bye-week this weekend means they don't play again in the league until 14 April, with director of rugby Alex Sanderson focused on a training ground reset before the final push.
"I'm channelling my endeavours to get our lads to a state of form that is worthy of the effort we've put in so far," he said.
Third: Leicester - 48 points
Still to play - H Bristol, H Exeter, H Harlequins
Leicester look to have timed their run to the play-offs perfectly in the last two months
Last season's champions are one of the in-form contenders, having won their last four league games despite being without a host of key players during the Six Nations period.
The Tigers have weathered the storm of losing their head coach Steve Borthwick and the knowledge that interim boss Richard Wigglesworth will join him in the England set-up at the end of this campaign.
"Five weeks ago our morale was low, it was tough. We'd just lost two games then two more of our coaches and we were struggling," winger Harry Potter told BBC Radio Leicester.
"The last four weeks morale has built, the team's come together and we've just seen how strong it is and can be. The knock-on effect is everyone's feeling a lot more positive and excited for what's to come."
Leicester can also rely on home advantage for their final three games, with Bristol, Exeter and Harlequins all having to visit Welford Road.
Fourth: Northampton - 48 points
Still to play - A London Irish, H Saracens, A Newcastle
Fly-half Fin Smith says Saints' next three games are the "most important I'll have played in"
Saints are aiming to match last year's success by reaching the semi-finals, although it has been nine years since they progressed to the final (when they won the title in 2013-14).
They have scored the most points - 494 - of any team in the league this season, but conversely have also conceded the most, their tally of 540 over 100 more than any other team.
That sizeable negative points difference could be their undoing if they end up level with another club on points and wins.
On the positive side, unlike most of their rivals, Saints Northampton are no longer in European action and can concentrate on the Premiership, starting on Saturday away to London Irish, where they have won on their last two visits.
"I'd like to be in the top two and that's what we're really trying to set out to do," director of rugby Phil Dowson told BBC Radio Northampton. "We're not quite where we want to be but we're not a million miles away and we're grafting hard for it."
Fifth: London Irish - 46 points
Still to play - H Northampton, A Saracens, H Exeter
London Irish held off Sale in their last game for a fifth win in six matches
London Irish have not finished in the Premiership top four since way back in the 2008-09 season, so a semi-final spot would not only mark a huge step forward for a club threatened by relegation a few years ago, but also a remarkable turnaround for their campaign.
The Exiles lost seven of their first eight league games and were languishing at the bottom of the table until a win over similarly struggling Bristol in January kick-started their charge up the league, with seven wins from their last nine.
They now sit just two points off the top four, and would overtake Northampton if they beat Saints on Saturday.
"We like to think that we've grown as a side," said director of rugby Declan Kidney. "This is the business end and we have to see whether we have learned enough to cope with the pressure that is going to come this weekend.
"We have a good balance in our game now and I think that's there to be seen."
Sixth: Exeter - 43 points
Still to play - A Bath A Leicester H Bristol A London Irish
Rob Baxter is hoping to lead his side back to the play-offs after missing out last season
Exeter missed out on the top four last season for the first time since 2016 and the two-time Premiership champions currently sit five points adrift, although have a game in hand on all four teams above them.
They beat Newcastle in their last outing and enjoyed a confidence-boosting Premiership Rugby Cup final win over London Irish last weekend, a first piece of silverware since their Double-winning campaign.
The worry for the Chiefs is their away form this season has been poor - with only two victories - and three of their final four league matches are on the road.
Director of rugby Rob Baxter said Sunday's game at bottom-placed Bath is effectively their game in hand, before three "10 pointers" against play-off rivals in Bristol, Leicester and London Irish.
"If we can get something in the Bath game, it makes every single week a very interesting challenge for us and for the opposition," he told BBC Radio Devon. "We'll know a lot more where we stand."
Seventh: Bristol - 41 points
Still to play - A Leicester, H Sale, A Exeter, H Gloucester
Four straight wins have launched Bristol right back into the fight for a top-four finish
After a poor first half of the season which saw Bristol languishing at the bottom of the table, questions were being asked of director of rugby Pat Lam's philosophy and whether the club - who finished top two seasons ago - had stagnated.
Bristol were not even in the conversation for a play-off spot before four consecutive wins through February and March propelled them to within seven points of the top four.
The Bears still have to face Leicester, Sale and Exeter - all currently above them - in their final four matches as well as juggling Challenge Cup games, but Lam is only focused on Saturday's game with Tigers.
"The guys are enjoying their rugby because they're working hard, they're the best version of themselves and that's coming from every player," Lam told BBC Radio Bristol.
"We mathematically can do it but that's big picture. These four, five weeks have just been next job, next game and we've gone about it that way."
Eighth: Harlequins - 40 points
Still to play - A Saracens, H Newcastle, H Bath, A Leicester
Quins have fly-half Marcus Smith and number eight Alex Dombrandt back from England duty
This has been an inconsistent season for Harlequins, whose recent defeat by Bristol was their fifth loss in six Premiership matches - a run that has seen them drop to eighth.
Head coach Tabai Matson has not yet ruled out the play-offs but has called all their final four matches "must win", starting with a visit to runaway leaders and rivals Saracens.
If they can get a result in north London, successive home game against the bottom two - Newcastle and Bath - offer hope of taking their fight to a final game at Leicester.
Quins will have Marcus Smith, Joe Marchant, Caden Murley, Jack Walker and Alex Dombrandt all back from international duty with England this weekend.
"We've got everybody to select from which is always great when you get to crunch time and have all your best players available," Matson said.
Ninth: Gloucester - 39 points
Still to play - A Newcastle, H Bath, H Sale, A Bristol
George Skivington is in his third campaign in charge but has yet to lead Gloucester to the play-offs
Having narrowly missed out on the play-offs last season, Gloucester have again endured a reversal of fortunes after spending most of the season in the top four, having slipped down to ninth at the most critical time.
They have only won one of five league games in 2023 and even if the play-offs are still technically possible, it looks a forlorn hope.
The Cherry and Whites will have to win all their remaining four games and hope other results go their way to give themselves even a fighting chance, starting with Newcastle away on Friday.
"The position we're in right now, we can only look week-to-week," Skivington told BBC Radio Gloucestershire.
"We'd be foolish to start looking at 'we need to make the top four'. We need to rip into each game, leave it all out there and whatever comes out of it, comes out of it. But it's tough for us now."
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