Rugby World Cup semi-finals: How England can upset the odds and beat South Africa

Manu Tuilagi scored England's first try in their most recent win over South Africa, a November 2021 success at Twickenham

As Steve Borthwick considered the prospect of a formidable South Africa side, he was clear.

"We're playing one of the world's best teams," he said.

"It's an enormous physical challenge. Our forwards have to produce the best possible performances they can. We've got to try things and play the game a different way."

It could easily be 2023. Instead it is from eight years earlier, when Borthwick had cherry blossom on his chest rather a red rose, and Japan were preparing to take on the Springboks in Brighton at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

• LISTEN: Rugby Union Weekly analyse England's chances

Four days later, Japan dropped jaws around the world with a 34-32 upset.

Borthwick is now England head coach, rather than Japan's forwards coach.

A victory for his side in Saturday's semi-final would not be a shock of the same magnitude. But South Africa, who ousted hosts France last weekend, are justifiably heavy favourites.

However, once again, Borthwick has a plan. His star number eight Ben Earl refused to divulge details, but promised it was "really exciting" and "plays to our strengths".

So how might Borthwick and his team shock the Boks once more?

Own the air

Freddie Steward's prowess in the air has been part of the reason behind his being voted England's player of the year for the past two seasons

Priority number one. France conceded three first-half tries after South Africa's kicking game had created backfield chaos.

On the first Gael Fickou, sightlines blocked by the hulking Eben Etzebeth, failed to claim Cobus Reinach's box-kick and Kurt Lee-Arendse feasted on the scraps.

On the second, Cameron Woki juggled a Manie Libbok crossfield bomb into the grateful arms of Damian de Allende.

On the third, Jesse Kriel poked a grubber into wide, open space for Cheslin Kolbe to scamper in.

Three tries, 19 points and just a three-point deficit after France had dominated other metrics by far wider margins.

"France in the first half, with the ball, were absolutely unbelievable," said former England international Paul Grayson on the BBC's Rugby Union Daily podcast.

"But South Africa had done nothing and got three tries, which I wouldn't say they were given by France but they would certainly go down as assists.

"England have to deal with it. Your backfield coverage and defusing anything that goes into the air has to be spectacular. That needs to be error-free, dominant and controlling the airwaves."

Marcus Smith, who has been a exciting, novel full-back option for England at the tournament, was unavailable to Borthwick, having failed a return-to-play test after their win over Fiji.

But Freddie Steward was always the best solution to stem the flow of points that dashed French hopes.

Eight inches taller than Smith and with a track record as a specialist, he will be key to nullifying South Africa's kick-to-compete ploy in attack.

Borthwick may also ponder whether the Boks are vulnerable to their own tactic. Arendse and Kolbe may have the edge on Jonny May and Elliot Daly for speed but, at 5ft 10in and 5ft 7in respectively, they are giving up height.

Could England isolate them in aerial contests on attack?

Avoid the scrum

South Africa's superiority at the scrum was a key part of their win in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final

Borthwick has picked Joe Marler and George Martin to strengthen the scrum. But against the Springboks, damage limitation, rather than domination, is the aim.

South Africa's set-piece power and strength in depth is the best in the world.

"You've got to stay away from the scrum," said Grayson.

"If you make mistakes, as in you knock the ball on and give the opposition a chance to assert themselves in the scrum because they're in control of it, you're going to be under the pump."

The template for this part of the gameplan already exists.

England's last win over South Africa, back in November 2021, came amid a front-row crisis.

Ellis Genge was ill. Jamie George and Luke Cowan-Dickie were injured. Marler was only fit enough for a replacement role after a bout of Covid.

Instead the inexperienced mix of Bevan Rodd, Jamie Blamire and Kyle Sinckler packed down from the start.

England suffered at times in the scrum, particularly in the second half as South Africa emptied the bench, but they prevailed 27-26.

"We had to box clever," said Marler, a 49th minute replacement in that match, afterwards.

"You've got to find ways to adapt. You've got to find ways to fight fire with fire at times and front up, but also play to our strengths and abilities. We had to try and move the ball more."

With rain forecast on Saturday evening, Grayson believes England will move it via the boot, buying territory at the expense of possession.

"England need to get rid of the ball before they make a mistake," he added.

"Play enough to get yourself on the front foot and into a decent position, put your boot through the ball, and force the Springboks to play out from deeper."

Back your fitness

Head coach Steve Borthwick (right) convinced Aled Walters to join him at Leicester before the pair became part of the England set-up

Limiting scrums, and their inevitable resets, raises the tempo.

France had South Africa on the back foot initially in their quarter-final by keeping the ball in play, varying their point of attack and turning defenders with clever kicks.

Run down the batteries of South Africa's starting pack, force their front-row 'Bomb Squad' replacements off the bench early and negate one of their main strengths. That's the theory.

Aled Walters should know the reality better than most. The Welsh strength and conditioning coach was in the Springbok camp at the last Rugby World Cup, but is now part of England's set-up.

He sent England into their warm-up matches for the tournament on the back of heavy training, hoping that sluggish performances in the summer would pay off with energy deep into matches in the autumn.

South Africa's director of rugby Rassie Erasmus suggested earlier in the week that that his staff had cannily managed their players' workloads by switching up selection during the pool stages.

He hinted they might do more of the same in the semi-final. Then, on Thursday, South Africa named an unchanged XV from their draining encounter with France.

"I didn't see that coming," said former South Africa skipper Bobby Skinstad on Rugby Union Daily. "I was surprised. He has got a lot of amazing players to choose from and it was an incredibly physical quarter-final.

"I don't know the analytics on each player and I am sure each of them is begging to be picked, but I thought maybe some guys deserved a bit of a breather."

Walters' opinion on whether his former employers have got that call right would be interesting.

Understand the officials

Ben O'Keeffe has been the focus of some scrutiny since his performance in South Africa's win over France last weekend

Referees don't usually get involved in the match-week media rounds. Ben O'Keeffe has had to.

The New Zealander was criticised by France's captain Antoine Dupont in the wake of South Africa's win. Dupont said the Springboks had slowed up ruck ball and that he was unsure O'Keeffe's performance "was up to the level of what was at stake".

O'Keeffe has been gracious in return. "Comments that players can make... they can do that after the game. In the heat of battle, things are said. I'm sure everything's fine," he said.

Erasmus has been on a social-media charm offensive during the tournament, praising O'Keeffe for his refereeing of their pool-stage defeat by Ireland and claiming his team are humbly listening to officials to learn more.

As we saw in the aftermath the controversial series win over the British and Irish Lions in 2021, though, coaches also have private conversations about how big matches are officiated.

"While coaches aren't allowed to talk directly to officials in the week, there are channels to make representations to World Rugby about things they want to see in the game and how they want to see it officiated," explained BBC rugby union correspondent Chris Jones.

"Steve Borthwick can't be outsmarted here. He can't let Rassie Erasmus have World Rugby on speed dial all week and he just stays away from it.

"He has to make sure he doesn't have regrets after the game. He has to get on the front foot."

The breakdown, where Tom Curry and Ben Earl will look to beat the South Africa back row to the ball, might be a particular topic of interest.