World champions South Africa lie in wait for Wales

Wales have only beaten South Africa seven times, losing 34 with one match drawn

Autumn Nations Series: Wales v South Africa

Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff Date: Saturday, 23 November Kick-off: 17:40 GMT

Coverage: Live on S4C, BBC Radio Wales, Radio Cymru, live text and commentary on the BBC Sport website and app

Welsh rugby is in the doldrums and there is no respite as South Africa's revered rugby juggernaut rolls into Cardiff.

Last weekend's 52-20 hammering by Australia represented a record 11th consecutive international loss for Wales.

Even the most patriotic Welsh fan will expect that sequence to extend to 12 on Saturday when they tackle the double world champions.

Head coach Warren Gatland is under intense pressure, and people are wondering if Saturday's Principality Stadium encounter will turn out to be his last Test match in charge of Wales.

The New Zealander has expressed his desire to continue, but results are stacked against him with Wales having not won a Test since the 2023 World Cup.

It is conceivable Gatland, whose second stint as Wales head coach is in stark contrast to a trophy-laden first term from 2008 to 2019, could continue into the Six Nations later this season, yet the decision is in the balance.

Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus defended his old sparring partner Gatland this week and urged people to show the Wales boss the respect he deserves.

There will be no sentiment shown, though, as South Africa aim for an 11th win in 13 games in 2024 when they close out their year in Cardiff.

Calendar crisis

Defeat this weekend would condemn Wales to a whole calendar year without tasting Test match success, which has not happened since 1937, when the international side only lost three games.

In terms of results, 2024 will be remembered as the worst in Wales' 143-year international rugby union history.

It began with a madcap 27-26 home defeat against Scotland - the Scots' first win in Cardiff since 2002 - and they did not recover.

A narrow away loss to England followed, before convincing defeats against Ireland and France, while a home defeat against Italy meant Wales lost every Six Nations game and propped up the table for the first time in 21 years.

The summer brought further reversals against South Africa and Australia (twice), then Fiji and the Wallabies triumphed during this Autumn Nations Series, leaving the Springboks in position to complete an annus horribilis for Welsh rugby fans.

Team news

Sam Costelow has played 17 internationals for Wales

Wales have made four changes from the side crushed by Australia with starts for wing Rio Dyer, fly-half Sam Costelow, lock Christ Tshiunza and number eight Taine Plumtree.

One positional change has seen wing Blair Murray moving to full-back instead of Cameron Winnett.

Dyer wears the number 11 shirt worn by Murray in the last two games, with Costelow replacing Gareth Anscombe, Tshiunza taking over from an injured Adam Beard and Plumtree replacing Aaron Wainwright.

On the replacements' bench, there is a role for uncapped Gloucester forward Freddie Thomas, and his club colleague Josh Hathaway is also included.

South Africa's six changes from the team that beat England include starts for the Hendrikse brothers Jaden and Jordan as half-backs.

The other four switches are up front, with hooker Johan Grobbelaar, prop Thomas du Toit, lock Franco Mostert, and flanker Elrigh Louw all featuring.

Prop Ox Nche was initially selected but was withdrawn with Wilco Louw staying at tight-head prop, while du Toit lines up at loose-head.

Jean Kleyn was also another late withdrawal with Eben Etzebeth starting again.

A powerful bench includes six forwards, with Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman and Vincent Koch among them, in addition to Wales-qualified uncapped flanker Cameron Hanekom.

Etzebeth and lock partner Franco Mostert have played 207 internationals between them, two more Tests than the whole starting Wales side on Saturday.

The gulf in experience between the two teams is also highlighted by the Wales match-day 23 having a total of 334 caps, only nine fewer than the South Africa replacements.

Wales' seven-man starting backline have only played 61 internationals between them.

The Springboks' 23 for the game can boast 963 Tests between them, with 638 in the starting side. There are 16 World Cup winners in the South Africa squad.

Line-ups and officials

Wales: Murray; Rogers, Llewellyn, B Thomas, Dyer; Costelow, Bevan; G Thomas, Lake (capt), Griffin, Rowlands, Tshiunza, Botham, Morgan, Plumtree.

Replacements: Elias, Smith, Assiratti, F Thomas, Reffell, R Williams, James, Hathaway.

South Africa: Fassi; Kolbe, Kriel, de Allende, Arendse; Jordan Hendrikse, Jaden Hendrikse; T du Toit, J Grobbelaar, W Louw, Etzebeth, Mostert, Kolisi (capt), Louw, Wiese.

Replacements: Marx, Steenekamp, Koch, van Staden, Snyman, Hanekom, Reinach, Pollard.

Referee: Karl Dickson (England)

Assistant Referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Damian Schneider (Argentina)

Television Match Official (TMO): Andrew Jackson (England).

View from both camps

Former flanker Rassie Erasmus was part of the South Africa side that lost to Wales at the then Millennium Stadium in 1999

Wales head coach Warren Gatland: "Last week's result hurts, and we are just as disappointed by it as the fans.

"There were good elements that we can definitely build on going into Saturday, but we have to improve our accuracy.

"We know what a quality side South Africa are and the physicality they bring. This week we need to show real courage and front up against the world champions."

South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus: "This is our last match of the season, and we are determined to finish the year on a positive note.

"Wales are a proud nation with a world-renowned coach in Warren and they'll do everything to finish their campaign on a high note.

"We'd love to finish the tour unbeaten, but we are well aware of the fact that we've have a few close results against them over the years at the Principality Stadium."

Match facts

• South Africa have won six of their last seven Tests against Wales after losing four in a row against them previously

• Wales have lost each of their last 11 Test matches, their longest ever run in men's rugby, overtaking a 10-game stretch between November 2002 and August 2003.

• Wales have also won just one of their last 11 Test matches at the Principality Stadium and have lost all four of their home games against southern hemisphere sides during that time, since a 20-13 victory against Argentina in November 2022.

• World champions South Africa have won 14 of their last 16 Test matches, including each of their last three, with their only two defeats during that period both by a single point.

• The Springboks have both the highest dominant carry (38.9%) and dominant tackle (10.5%) rates of any nation in men's tier one rugby this year, while Wales have the lowest dominant tackle rate of any such side in 2024.

• The average attendance for the Wales and South Africa fixture in Cardiff for the last eight matches since 2008 is 64,242.

• The Principality Stadium roof will be closed for this game.