Four spots, 11 teams - how Champions League race is shaping up

Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola (left), Aston Villa midfielder Marco Asensio (centre) and Chelsea defender Levi Colwill (right) endured differing weekends

The battle to secure European football next season is hotting up.

There were some twists and turns on Saturday, with Chelsea, Bournemouth and Fulham all losing.

A last-gasp win for Aston Villa and a victory for Brighton put both firmly back in the mix, while 11th-placed Brentford are only seven points off the top four after Friday's emphatic win at Leicester.

BBC Sport looks at who stands where in the race to secure Champions League football - and why England may have a fifth spot to fill next season.

How does the Premier League table stand?

Bournemouth and Chelsea both missed the chance to move into the top four with their defeats, while Fulham could have closed the gap to two points had they won.

Villa's victory meant they climbed to seventh, having started the day in ninth, while Brighton also moved into the top half.

Which positions guarantee a European spot?

The standard positions that earn European places in the Premier League are:

Champions League: Top four

Europa League: Fifth

A second Europa League spot is awarded to the FA Cup winners, and the Carabao Cup winners earn a Europa Conference League play-off spot.

If the FA Cup winners secure European qualification by other means, then the sixth-placed team in the Premier League takes that spot.

Similarly, if the EFL Cup winners earn a European place by another route, then England's Conference League place passes on to the sixth-placed team.

And if both domestic cup winners gain European spots by other means, then the Europa League place goes to the team in sixth, and the Conference League spot to the side in seventh.

Who is set to qualify for Europe as things stand?

Opta's League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

It estimates that Liverpool are more than 99.9% likely to finish in the top four and Arsenal have a 99.7% chance.

They give Manchester City a 81.7% chance of qualifying for the Champions League for a 15th successive season - and that rises to 91.1% if a fifth spot (more on that below) is available.

Nottingham Forest are currently best placed after that - with a 48.6% chance of finishing in the top four - but it is then really tight between the other sides.

Brentford, Fulham, Brighton and Villa - who have played a game more than most sides because of their Liverpool match being rescheduled - are each given less than 10% chances of reaching the top four or five.

How do countries earn an extra Champions League spot?

Each country's league earns a coefficient ranking based on how their teams perform in Uefa's three men's club competitions: the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

Coefficient points are earned through match results - two for a win and one for a draw.

The points earned by clubs from the same domestic league are added up and divided by the number of clubs the league has in Europe.

For example, if the Premier League had 100 points, that would be split by the number of teams playing in Europe (seven), giving England a coefficient of 14.28.

This season, bonus points are available to clubs playing in the Champions League, which is advantageous to leagues with more clubs competing in it, such as Germany and Italy.

Countries that finish in the coefficient table's top two earn an additional Champions League spot for the following season.

Those spots are awarded to the teams who finish in the first position below the standard Champions League allocation in those leagues.

In the Premier League, the top four clubs automatically qualify for the Champions League via league position, so any additional place would go to the team in fifth.

Additional spots for the 2024-25 Champions League were given to Bologna and Borussia Dortmund, who finished fifth in Serie A and the Bundesliga respectively.

Who is leading the coefficient table? Could England get a fifth Champions League spot?

At present, the Premier League is in the driving seat, with six of its seven teams reaching the last 16 across all three Uefa competitions.

Manchester City's defeat by Real Madrid is the only blot on the landscape for England, with Spain in third place for now.

However, Italy, who are second, endured a dismal time in February with AC Milan, Atalanta and Juventus all losing in the Champions League knockout play-off round - limiting Serie A's opportunity to gather more points.

Germany's prospects appear difficult with Bayern Munich and Dortmund in the same half of the Champions League draw.

Likewise France. Paris St-Germain and Lille are the representatives remaining in the Champions League, with Monaco and Brest exiting at the play-off stage. Lyon, in the Europa League, are the only other French side left in European competition.

Portugal has two of its five teams remaining but lost Sporting and Porto in the Champions League and Europa League play-offs.

What about the Europa League winners?

England could end up with six Champions League teams next season.

The winners of the Europa League are also granted a Champions League slot.

Under previous rules, any single league could only have a maximum of five clubs in the Champions League. However, that rule has been scrapped.

This season, any team who win the Europa League but do not qualify for the Champions League via their domestic league position will go into the Champions League.

This raises the possibility of Manchester United or Tottenham, both through to the knockout stage of the Europa League but languishing in the bottom half of the Premier League, qualifying for the Champions League alongside the top four or five.

'Premier League can't take anything for granted' - analysis

By the time Uefa's three club competitions reached their quarter-final phase last season, the Premier League was well placed to claim one of the two coveted European performance slots.

But the elimination of Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and West Ham shredded those hopes, with Aston Villa's exit in the semi-finals of the Conference League confirming the failure as Italy and Germany benefited.

The speedy collapse of those hopes means no-one will take anything for granted this time around.

However, England is in an even stronger position this season. It would now take a complete capitulation for the Premier League's fifth-placed team not to qualify for next season's tournament.