Wild celebrations but Wales face reality check

Wales won their first home Test in 833 days when they beat Japan 24-23 in Cardiff

Autumn Nations Series: Wales v New Zealand

Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff Date: Saturday, 22 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT

Coverage: Commentary on BBC Sounds, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cymru and live text on BBC Sport online.

In the end, in the moment, it was just all about the win for Wales.

There were wild celebrations at the Principality Stadium as replacement fly-half Jarrod Evans stepped up to kick the match-winning penalty against Japan.

The elation and relief was evident as Evans was mobbed by his team-mates with the players reacting as if they had won a major tournament, while head coach Steve Tandy and director of rugby Dave Reddin embraced.

There were stories of supporters among the 61,000 crowd in tears at a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat.

The extreme emotion demonstrated how rare a Welsh win is these days - especially in Cardiff - as Wales ended a record run of 10 successive home Test defeats that stretched back to August 2023.

"It's a burden off our backs," said Tandy after his first win as Wales boss.

"We don't talk about it, but it does sit there. That burden of not winning here for more than two years, it's huge for them.

"You see the boys and what it means. The support was incredible, the atmosphere was amazing."

Over the top or justified celebrations?

The immediate reaction has produced an interesting debate on social media, with some labelling it over the top and others saying they should savour the win.

The scenes were understandable given this was only a second victory in 21 Tests, with some of these players having never before experienced a Wales home win.

Once the euphoria dies down, the cold hard facts are that Wales were very lucky to have beaten Japan by one point.

Wales players and fans were celebrating this feat on the same day England defeated New Zealand and Ireland managed a record win against Australia.

Wales demonstrated why they are battling with Japan for 12th place in the world rankings and not competing with the world's top 10.

This was another sub-standard display, with Wales remaining miles off the pace before welcoming the All Blacks and world champions South Africa to Cardiff in the next fortnight.

Did the better team lose?

Eddie Jones won against Wales as Japan head coach in 2013 and 2025

Japan had double the number of carries and forced Wales to make almost 100 more tackles than the visitors.

The Brave Blossoms were the more impressive team on show, although head coach Eddie Jones avoided a couple of attempts to say that afterwards.

"The only thing anybody ever remembers is the scoreboard," said Jones. "That tells the story and is all that matters."

Jones has suffered previous defeats in Cardiff inflicted by superior Welsh sides and has close-up knowledge of the current squad, having played them three times this year.

"Having spoken to a few people, the big thing Wales has to look at is the development system," said Jones.

"Coaches can only coach the players they have got and Wales for a long period of time had a strong and tough team under Warren Gatland.

"It is obvious the young players have not been developed enough or as quickly as you would like, because now you have a gap in the team."

Jones believes Wales can return to rugby's top table.

"There are plenty of good players in Wales," said Jones.

"Wales is one of the traditional hotbeds of rugby in the world, albeit it's a small country.

"If they can improve the development pathway and get that right, Wales will get its place back in rugby."

Reality bites as discipline suffers

Kind words but that prediction currently seems a long way off based on Saturday's dire display.

Tandy is only in his second game in charge and has had just three weeks with his squad.

They demonstrated resilience by beating Japan but Tandy recognised performance levels need to improve markedly.

"It's frustrating as I know what this group can be," said Tandy.

"There's lots to love about them and massive pride but I was expecting more in our performance.

"We need to add a ruthless nature. There's a lot of good in our game, but we need more and to be more consistent.

"So I know there'll be disappointment with the performance."

Wales were pedestrian in attack as they failed to break down 13 men in the first half.

The hosts also lacked discipline with a 20-minute red card given to wing Josh Adams for a dangerous clearout.

Tandy labelled that decision harsh but the incident occurred a week after Ben Thomas was sin-binned for kicking out at Argentina flanker Pablo Matera.

"We've played 40 minutes with 14 men, it'll catch up with you," said Tandy.

"We also gave away some sloppy penalties from kick-offs. Discipline is something we can control much better."

Holding out for a hero

Harlequins fly-half Jarrod Evans held his nerve to kick the winning penalty

However poorly Wales performed, the win gave Tandy his first victory and secured a top-12 place in the world rankings before the 2027 World Cup pool draw is made in December.

There were also a couple of encouraging individual performances as number eight Olly Cracknell was named player-of-the-match in his first start, while flanker Alex Mann produced a dynamic display in the seven shirt left vacant by the injury to skipper Jac Morgan.

Fly-half Dan Edwards showed glimpses of his talents, while Wales had its own home hero.

Evans stepped off the bench in the 79th minute to replace Edwards and win the game.

"As a kicker throughout your career, you get a lot of shots at goal but very few times do you have moments like that," former Wales fly-half James Hook told the Scrum V podcast.

"Big-pressure kicks with seconds to go to win the game, especially for your country.

"For Jarrod to step up and nail that kick, after just being on the pitch barely a few minutes, it's huge credit to him."

All Blacks await

New Zealand will arrive in Wales smarting from a defeat against England at Twickenham which ended hopes of completing a grand slam of wins against the home unions.

The All Blacks will aim to finish their season on a winning note, while Wales will chase a first victory against New Zealand since 1953.

"We won't beat the All Blacks or South Africa but we can hope for a better performance," said Hook.

"It was a step back from Argentina what we saw Wales produce against Japan."

Former Wales number eight Gareth Delve gave a stark warning.

"It is damage limitation over the next two weeks and the boys are going to have to show some character," said Delve.

So the message is clear. Do not expect to see the same wild celebrations in Cardiff next weekend.

Unless Wales can achieve the unthinkable and beat the All Blacks for the first time in 72 years. Then we really would witness some Saturday celebrations.