A quick guide to swing state Michigan
- Published
Michigan, famous for its Great Lakes, the Mustang and Madonna, is one of seven states that will decide the 2024 US presidential election.
Voting in swing states is hard to predict and can swing Republican or Democrat - that’s why you’re hearing so much about them as campaigning draws to a close.
Here’s all you need to know.
Population
10.03m, same as Greece
Electoral college votes
15 of 538
In a nutshell
Michigan helped propel Trump to victory in 2016, before Biden took the state back in 2020.
2020 margin
Biden by 150,000 votes
What's the deal now?
Neither Harris nor Trump is taking Michigan for granted in 2024. The candidates are focusing on Michigan’s large auto industry as well as national issues such as the economy and immigration.
What are voters saying?
Michigan is home to a diverse group of voters, from its major city and Democratic stronghold of Detroit to its many rural Republican small towns. Much like elsewhere in the country, voters here are concerned about the rising cost of living.
“I’ve never been able to even afford a house. I’ve been waiting for years,” said Darrell Sumpter, a 52-year-old who voted for Trump in 2020 and is leaning toward Harris this year.
Detroit is the heart of the automotive industry in the US, making the issue top of mind for voters in the surrounding areas. The war in the Middle East also hits close to home in Michigan, which has the largest Arab-American population in the US.
What's the expert view?
Political scientists say Democrats are focusing on building up support in the state’s largest left-leaning counties, Oakland, Washtenaw and Wayne, while the Trump campaign tries to chip away at votes in swing districts like Macomb County, relying on rural support. Democrats are also trying to win back voters who veered toward Trump when he won in 2016.
“White, non-college voters, manual workers, lots of people who are traditionally affiliated with unions… have been moving towards Republicans,” says Michigan State University professor of political science Matt Grossmann.
Both sides are focused on Michigan’s swing voters, a group that is frustrated by inflation and is typically made up of “lower middle-class or working-class voters who just don't really pay attention to politics on a daily basis,” says University of Michigan political scientist Jonathan Hanson.
What to watch out for on election night
Harris needs a big margin of victory in Democratic counties like Oakland and Wayne, home to Detroit, while Trump will want to comfortably win Republican-leaning districts like Macomb and Kent County
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are locked in a tight race for Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow’s US Senate seat, as Democrats try to maintain slim control of the Senate
Reporting by Madeline Halpert
