A quick guide to swing state Arizona
- Published
Arizona, famous for the Grand Canyon, Emma Stone and tall cacti, is one of seven states that will decide the 2024 US presidential election.
Voting in swing states is hard to predict and can swing Republican or Democrat - that’s why you’re hearing so much about them as campaigning draws to a close.
Here’s all you need to know.
Population
7.39m, same as Hong Kong.
Electoral college votes
11 of 538
In a nutshell
Arizona is the only swing state along the US-Mexico border, where about one in four voters are Latino. Arizona was also at the heart of 2020 election misinformation claims and pro-Trump protests.
2020 margin
Biden by 10,000 votes.
What's the deal now?
Border politics are one of the top issues here along with abortion. Democrats are hoping a ballot measure enshrining the right to an abortion might help turnout in this historically Republican state.
What are voters saying?
Polls show the top issues among voters are the economy, immigration and abortion. Inflation has caused alarm from some voters who blame Democratic President Joe Biden.
"The mortgage rates, they're outrageous," one Trump voter told BBC. "The price of food is outrageous. Pretty much everything has doubled since Trump was president."
For others, like Matt Pocock, a 35-year-old engineer who lives in Tuscon, price rises were less of an issue.
“I think the president has a lot less to do with the economy than people tend to think,” he says.
He says he has already cast an early-voting ballot for Harris, favouring her policies on abortion rights and international affairs.
What's the expert view?
Latinos, younger voters and newcomers who have recently moved to the state will play an important role in determining who wins, says Lisa Sanchez, a professor in the school of government and public policy at the University of Arizona.
“Voters are trying to gauge which candidate will secure their own economic future while balancing candidate stances on key issues related to abortion and immigration policy,” she explains.
Professor Sanchez also says divisions have widened here since the 2020 election, when Trump lost in the state, and election misinformation has increased.
What to watch out for on election night
The winner of the Senate race between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake could help determine control of the chamber
The winner of Maricopa County, home to 59% of the state’s registered voters, usually wins the state
High turnout could be partly driven by a ballot measure that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state
Reporting by Christal Hayes
