A quick guide to swing state North Carolina
- Published
North Carolina, famous for Michael Jordan, Krispy Kreme and the world’s first flight in a powered aircraft, is one of seven states that will decide the 2024 US presidential election.
Voting in swing states is hard to predict and can swing Republican or Democrat - that’s why you’re hearing so much about them as campaigning draws to a close.
Here’s all you need to know.
Population
10.7m, same as Honduras
Electoral college votes
16 of 538
In a nutshell
It’s the only battleground state that Donald Trump won in 2020 so if Democrats were to flip it, his task becomes a lot harder.
2020 margin
Trump by 74,000 votes.
What's the deal now?
North Carolina is faithfully Republica, but Democrats almost won it in 2020 partly because of the state’s black voters, a group they have heavily targeted again this year.
What do voters say?
Democrats in North Carolina are excited to have Harris as their presidential nominee, the first black and south-east Asian woman in the role. “Everybody is energised and feels like we have a good chance,” says Michael Sutton, 70. William Overton, 85, is frustrated that abortion laws today “are worse than the 1950s”.
Republicans say their top issues are the economy and inflation, followed by immigration. “What we’ve seen the past four years is terrible,” says Zena Rose, a small business owner in Johnston County.
Expert view
For Democrats to win North Carolina, they will need high turnout from the state’s black voters, says Michael Bitzer, chair of the Catawba University Department of Politics, especially in the state’s more populous metros like Raleigh and Charlotte, and in the eastern rural parts of the state. Another key group Democrats need to see in high numbers are voters under the age of 43 - which Mr Bitzer says compose 42% of all registered North Carolina voters.
For Republicans to win, they need their party’s voters to continue registering at higher rates and voting in larger numbers than Democrats. Two things might challenge that, Mr Bitzer says. One factor is whether the 250,000 moderate Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary support Harris or choose not to vote. The second factor is Hurricane Helene, which destroyed much of the western part of the state in predominantly Republican areas.
What to watch out for on election night
There’s been huge interest in the race for governor, with the Republican candidate Mark Robinson denying a CNN story that he made offensive remarks on a pornography site
The state usually counts votes reasonably quickly but it could be slower due to Hurricane Helene aftermath
Granville county is one of only six in North Carolina that went from Obama to Trump - it could be a good night for Harris if she wins it back
Reporting by Brandon Drenon
