A quick guide to swing state Wisconsin
- Published
Wisconsin, famous for cheese, Harley Davidson motorcycles and the Green Bay Packers American football team is one of seven states that will decide the 2024 US presidential election.
Voting in swing states is hard to predict and can lean Republican or Democrat - that’s why you’re hearing so much about them as campaigning draws to a close.
Here’s all you need to know.
Population
5.9 million (same as Denmark)
Electoral college votes
10 of 538
In a nutshell
It’s one of the Big Three in the Midwest, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which gave Joe Biden victory in 2020.
2020 margin
Biden by 21,000 votes.
What's the deal now?
Wisconsin’s mix of cities, small towns and large rural areas has made it one of the most-contested states in 2024.
Republicans held their national convention in Milwaukee, which saw a triumphant Trump receive a hero’s welcome after surviving being shot at just days before. Kamala Harris held her first rally there in July. Both have returned to the state several times since.
What are voters saying?
The Harris campaign is hoping to draw in voters like Sarah Weber, a 24-year-old engineer based in Madison.
“Women’s rights is at the top of my list,” she says.
When Harris appears in the state she tends to accuse Trump of being a threat to democracy and focus on his false election claims. But at Trump rallies, immigration is the big issue and supporters talk about how their candidate - and by extension, his backers - have been treated unfairly. Fans seem unfazed by Trump’s legal difficulties, with some suggesting criminal prosecutions will backfire.
“It’s definitely going to increase his popularity,” says Nancy Ridge who attended a rally in Milwaukee wearing a jacket with Trump’s mugshot on the back.
“Especially among lower-class people who have been convicted of crimes or even falsely accused. They understand the justice system and how corrupt it can be.”
What's the expert view
Maximising turnout in Dane county - which includes the capital Madison, and Milwaukee County - could be key to a Harris victory, says Michael Wagner, director of the Center for Communication and Civic Renewal at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. Harris also needs to ensure she doesn’t lose votes in rural parts of the state, he adds.
He says Trump needs to do better in the suburban counties where support for Republicans has been waning. The key places to look at are the counties around Milwaukee known as the “Wow” counties - Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington, he explains.
What to watch out for on election night
Senator Tammy Baldwin must hold on to her seat for Democrats to keep the Senate
Will Trump get bigger numbers in the “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in suburban Milwaukee than Harris will get in Milwaukee and Dane counties?
First vote results will largely be ballots cast early - the large populations in Democratic strongholds may take longer to count
Reporting by Mike Wendling
