China's huge navy is expanding at breakneck speed - will it rule the waves?

Chinese shipyards, among the world's most productive, are giving the country a critcial edge in the oceans

"Socialism is good…" a pensioner warbles into a portable karaoke mic, slightly off-key and drowned out by her friends' chatter.

But they join her for the chorus: "The Communist Party guides China on the path to power and wealth!"

It is not the catchiest karaoke number. But it is an apt one to belt out as they look towards a horizon framed by cranes towering over ships of all sizes.

Suoyuwan park in Dalian, which juts out of north-eastern China into the Yellow Sea, has stunning views of one of China's largest shipyards, and is a place to gather and be merry.

But to White House analysts thousands of miles away in Washington, this cradle of Chinese shipbuilding is part of a growing threat.

In the last two decades, China has ramped up investment in shipbuilding. And that has paid off: more than 60% of the world's orders this year have gone to Chinese shipyards. Put simply, China is building more ships than any other country because it can do it faster than anyone else.

"The scale is extraordinary… in many ways eye-watering," says Nick Childs, a maritime expert with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The Chinese shipbuilding capacity is something like 200 times overall that of the United States."

That commanding lead also applies to its navy. The Chinese Communist Party now has the world's largest, operating 234 warships compared to the US Navy's 219.

China's explosive rise has been fuelled by the sea. The world's second-largest economy is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest ports, which are critical to global supply routes. And its coastal cities are thriving because of trade.

As Beijing's ambitions have grown, so has its arsenal of ships - and its confidence to stake a louder claim in the South China Sea and beyond.

President Xi Jinping's China certainly wants to rule the waves. Whether it will is the question.

Built as a port by Russians in the late 19th Century, Dalian is now one of China's largest shipyards

A grand military parade in the coming days may reveal just how close it is to that goal. Xi will host Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un for the event in a defiant message to the Western nations that have shunned them.

The US and its allies will be closely watching the photo-op and the display of military might, which is expected to include anti-ship missiles, hypersonic weapons and underwater drones.

"The US Navy, while it still has significant advantages, is seeing the gap in its capabilities with China narrow and is struggling to find a way of answering that," Mr Childs says, "because its shipbuilding capacity has dwindled significantly over the past decades."

US President Donald Trump has said he wants to fix this, and has signed an executive order to revitalise US shipbuilding and retake America's maritime advantage.

That, Mr Childs adds, will be a "very tall order".

A navy to end the 'bitter memories'

Between 2019 and 2023, China's four largest shipyards - Dalian, Guangzhou, Jiangnan and Hudong-Zhonghua - produced 39 warships with a combined displacement of 550,000 tonnes, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

That is the volume of water they displace, which is the most common way of measuring the size of a vessel or fleet. In comparison, the UK's Royal Navy currently has an estimated total displacement of around 399,000 tonnes.

While China has the world's largest navy by number of vessels, the US fleet has a greater overall tonnage and is more powerful - with far more large aircraft carriers.

But Beijing is catching up.

"There's no sign that the Chinese are slowing down," says Alexander Palmer from the CSIS and author of the report, Unpacking China's Naval Buildup.

"Hull count [number of ships] is not the only measure of a navy's effectiveness of course, but the ability to produce and churn out warships has been extremely impressive and could make a strategic difference."

There are still limits on China's naval rise. Beijing may have more ships, but it only has two operational aircraft carriers, and its navy has far fewer submarines than the US.

Some analysts argue they are also not as sophisticated as the American ones, which have a technological head start going back to the the Cold War.

The Chinese subs are also largely built for the shallower South China Sea, where a game of cat-and-mouse with the US is already under way. For now, China's ability to travel far from its own coastline is limited.

But there are signs this is changing, and fast.

Satellite imagery obtained by BBC Verify from Hainan, a Chinese island province in the South China Sea, suggests Beijing is pouring significant funding into expanding its naval bases.

The base at Yulin has five new piers which appear to have been constructed in the last five years. It is thought China plans to base all of its largest submarines, the Jin-class (or Type 094), in this port. These new subs can carry 12 nuclear missiles each.

Photographs and footage of rehearsals, shared on Chinese social media, suggest that at least two new types of unmanned underwater drones, which look like large torpedoes, will be among the new systems on show at next week's parade.

These could allow China to carry out surveillance deep underwater and detect other submarines or even undersea cables without risking its own naval forces.

Much of the technology is still "unproven and the timeline of its capabilities is still unclear", cautions Matthew Funaiole from CSIS's China Power Project. "The big question is how long will it take for the technology to mature."

And that's why the US cannot overlook the threat China's shipbuilding represents, he adds.

The country's vast naval buildup is being propelled by a party that is still reeling from the pains of the past - and is more than willing to channel them to buttress its message of loyalty, power and patriotism.

Holding a massive military parade to commemorate the victory over Japan, and the end of its brutal occupation, is testament to that.

China's aircraft carrier Liaoning set for sea trial at Dalian shipyard in February 2024

What the rest of the world sees as China's rise, Xi sees as its resurgence.

He has touted the value of a "strong navy to safeguard national security". He cites 470 invasions between 1840 and 1949 that brought "untold suffering" - as the once-powerful Qing empire cracked, China plunged into turmoil, revolution and civil war.

And he has vowed that his country will never again be "humiliated" or relive those "bitter memories of foreign assaults".

Where China has an undeniable edge is the dual use of shipyards. Many of those that support commercial production can also help produce warships for the navy.

Military and civilian shipyards work hand in hand in some places, which state media describes as "military-civilian fusion", a concept Xi has pushed hard.

Dalian, which Beijing calls a "flagship shipyard", plays a big part in this.

The shipyard and the areas in Dalian with clear views of it are popular with locals

In full view of the picnicking pensioners waving karaoke mics are huge commercial ships, some as long as three football fields.

But just around the corner, berthed where no-one can take pictures, is a group of military vessels. There, a crane is lowering a helicopter onto the huge deck of a ship, as a marching band bellows in Suoyuwan park.

"This is a politically motivated agenda to merge both the commercial and military entities together," Mr Funaiole says. "There are efforts to bring the technology needed to build both into a centralised location – Dalian is one of them."

That is why even without powerful aircraft carriers or submarines, China's commercial fleet and its expertise in building ships quickly can be key during a crisis, he adds.

A helicopter is lowered onto a military vessel docked in Dalian

"In any protracted conflict, if you have shipyards that quickly produce new ships, this is a huge strategic advantage," Mr Funaiole says. "Commercial ships can transport food etc into any conflict zone. Without this, the US is in a position where it might not be able to sustain a prolonged war effort."

It boils down to a straight question, he says: "Who can put more assets into the water more quickly and readily?"

The answer, at the moment, is China.

'Hide your strength, bide your time'

But the world should not worry, says Prof Hu Bo, director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University.

"We have no interest in interfering in the business of other countries, especially militarily," he adds. His message is that China is building big ships because it can, not because it wants to take over the world.

There is one island which China does not see as another country: Taiwan.

Beijing has long vowed to "reunify" with the democratic island and has not ruled out the use of force. In recent years, high-ranking US officials have declared that China will invade Taiwan by 2027, but Beijing denies there is a deadline.

"China already has the capacity to take Taiwan back," Prof Hu Bo says, "but China doesn't do that because we have patience. China has never given up on the prospect of peaceful unification. We can wait."

The bigger concern is that any attack on Taiwan could trigger a wider war, and involve the US. Washington is bound by law to provide arms to help Taiwan defend itself - support which is unacceptable to Beijing for what is considers a breakaway province that will eventually be part of China.

Earlier this year US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China posed an "imminent" threat to Taiwan, and urged Asian countries to boost defence spending and work with the US to deter war.

So despite Prof Hu Bo's assurances, it is hard to ignore the fact that China's warships are beginning to sail further from the country's shores.

In February, they were seen circumnavigating Australia's coastline for more than three weeks where they staged unprecedented live-fire drills.

More recently Chinese aircraft carriers conducted naval drills near Japan, sparking concern - although it was in international waters, the move was unprecedented.

China's shipbuilding expertise should not worry the world, Prof Hu Bo says

As Beijing grows bolder in its attempts to project power in the Pacific, China's neighbours, from Taiwan to Australia, are worried that its famous mantra is paying off: "hide your strength and bide your time".

But Prof Hu Bo believes that fears of a conflict between the US, whose allies in the region - Japan, South Korea and Australia - are often at odds with China, are overblown, because they all know it could be catastrophic.

"In the last three years, I think the signal is very clear that both sides don't want to fight," he says. "We are prepared for that, but we don't want to fight with each other."

'We defend our ocean dream'

Back in Dalian, around an hour's drive from the vibrant city, tourists are arriving by the coach load in the naval fortress town of Lushunkou, which also has a military theme park in the shape of an aircraft carrier.

Guides on loud microphones lead their groups into the park, pointing to the official notices warning visitors not to photograph the military vessels moored in the crescent-shaped harbour and to report any behaviour that might be construed as spying "to help defend the Motherland".

More military notices on bridges and walls declare, "united as one, we defend our ocean dream".

China has fostered pride in its shipbuilding prowess, especially here in Dalian.

The military theme park near Dalian is a huge tourist draw

At the theme park, which also overlooks the shipyard, a 50-year-old blogger dressed in the local fashion - a floral pattern shirt - is giving his followers their daily rundown of the latest ships being built in the port.

"I am very proud – really, look at what this city gives us," he announces to his followers. A mother and her seven-year-old daughter, on holiday from the neighbouring province, marvel at the ships. "I was amazed. It's huge. How does it sail, I wonder?"

The key question for the US and its allies is how far can China's war fleet sail, and how far from its shores is Beijing prepared to venture.

"At what point will they will break out and be able to really show influence further afield, for example, in the Indian Ocean and beyond, will be a key thing to look at," Nick Childs says.

"They still have a significant way to go, but they are certainly pushing the boundaries."