Here's the first projection from German public broadcaster ARD. Unlike the earlier exit poll, a projection is based on real results, but as you can see, the numbers are very similar.

The Christian Democrats (CDU) are set for about 211 seats in parliament according to this calculation. If these numbers are borne out then they might be able form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), despite their poor performance.

But that depends on whether the yellow party - the economic liberal FDP - gets into parliament. If the FDP doesn't get in, then the arithmetic works in the CDU's favour.

Under 5% and the FDP won't get in, but it's too early to say.

There are 630 seats in the new parliament.

Image source, Reuters

The leaders of the far-right AfD have just spoken and reacted to the exit polls which show their party in a comfortable second place.

Party co-chairman Tino Chrupalla says he is "very proud of our party".

"We were united, our campaign was targeted and we were disciplined," he says, standing alongside co-chairwoman Alice Weidel.

"We can really bring about a epochal change," he says, adding "we are always open to negotiations".

"We have received the confidence of the voters and that should be something everybody else accepts as well," he adds.

Other parties have been adamant that they will not form a coalition with the AfD.

But Chrupalla says his party has been "given a mandate to bring about political change".

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

Image source, Getty Images

Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democrats have an unassailable lead, according to both exit polls.

So he will be in the box seat to form a new government. But if these numbers are borne out, it is not clear-cut if he can form a coalition with just one other party, the Social Democrats. It may all depend on whether one of the other parties gets into parliament or not.

If he needs to find a third party, it could take time, and he's a man in a hurry.

But the other big story is that the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is set to become the second biggest force in German politics. Four years ago they polled just 10.4% and now they're on course for 19.5%-20%, according to the exit polls.

Their message appears to have cut through with millions of Germans in the west as well as the east.

Exit polls are based on surveys of voters who have just cast their ballots at hundreds of representative polling stations. They tend to be relatively accurate, but we won't need to wait long before we get projections which will be based on initial results.

Here is another set of exit poll results, this time from German broadcaster ARD:

• CDU - CSU - 29%
• AFD - 19.5%
• SPD - 16%
• Greens - 13.5%
• Die Linke - 8.5%
• FDP - 4.9%
• BSW - 4.7%

Image source, Getty Images

The exit poll from the ZDF broadcaster has just arrived:

• CDU - CSU - 28.5%
• AFD -20%
• SPD - 16.5%
• Greens -12%
• Die Linke - 9%
• FDP - 5%
• BSW - 5%

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Getty Images

It has just gone 18:00 in Germany, and polls have officially closed. Here's what happens next:

• We are expecting exit polls very soon. These are based on anonymous and voluntary surveys carried out at 560 (out of 80,000) polling stations. In 2021 they were relatively accurate
• At about 18:30 local time (17:30 GMT) we're expecting projections based on first counts of votes cast. These may be a bit different from the exit polls, because the exit polls don’t take into account postal voting. The projections do and they will improve as they update during the evening
• Official results are expected early on Monday and coalition talks are likely to start soon after

With just a few minutes until polls close, there is an energetic - and very busy - atmosphere at the Berlin headquarters of the Christian Democrats, where the BBC's Jessica Parker is reporting from.

"There’s a lot of media here because this is the party that expects to come top of the polling," our correspondent says, adding that the beers are flowing.

Jessica Parker & Kristina Volk
Reporting from Ilsede, Lower Saxony

Mika, a 23-year-old who we met at a social democratic (SPD) campaign event in Lower Saxony, said he’s worried the far-right AfD could gain more influence over the coming years.

Surveys and polls suggest that the AfD’s becoming increasingly popular among men of Mika’s age – which he believed is partly the fault of other parties.

“Especially the centre-left or left parties, they did not address young men in the past years, maybe in the past decade, because they are very into feminism.“

He said he personally has nothing against feminism but thinks the mainstream parties have failed to reach out to young men.

“I think it's very sad that there are so many young men voting for the AfD, but they are addressing them and they say, we know your problems, we can solve them. Of course they cannot, but they say it. And I hope that the other parties would say that as well.”

Nick Beake
Europe Correspondent

AfD supporters are arriving at their election night HQ in northern Berlin.

There’s food, drinks, music and laughter - all of which you might expect from a party which is forecast to double its percentage of votes on last time and finish as the second biggest party. There is particularly tight security all around the venue with police cordoning off nearby streets.

All of the big parties will have similar arrangements but the AfD is uniquely divisive. Critics say it is a racist and dangerous threat. Supporters here believe they speak for an increasingly larger number of Germans and have clear policies which put Germany first.

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

We are now less than 30 minutes away from polls closing in Germany.

A key thing to watch out for in this election is what kind of parliamentary majority can be mustered together?

As the exit polls roll in, everyone will be crunching the numbers to see if the frontrunner to be the next Chancellor, conservative CDU leader Friedrich Merz, has the option of forming a two-party coalition.

Or will he face the prospect of trying to form a three-party deal?

That’s absolutely what he wants to avoid. He's aware of the bickering that has plagued current-Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tri-party coalition. That, of course, collapsed, sparking this snap poll.

Merz’s pledge to deliver a stronger administration in Berlin hinges, to some degree, on the mathematical possibilities that Germany’s electorate delivers.

Kristina Volk
Reporting from Germany

The AfD and its followers have long been dominating social media.

The far-right party’s leader Alice Weidel has around 2.9 million followers across various platforms and about 893,400 followers on TikTok alone.

In the last month, it's the party Die Linke though that has been increasing their following on- and offline.

The party’s co-chair and candidate in this general election, Heidi Reichinnek, now has around 559,300 followers on TikTok. A sharp increase in followers came after her speech about the “Brandmauer” (firewall) - a policy of non-cooperation with the far right - went viral on social media.

According to Die Linke, they've had a flood of new party members in recent weeks, with their total number reaching an all-time high of 81,200 members.

Mid-January, the opinion polls showed Die Linke at around 3%. In Germany, 5% of the vote is needed to make it into parliament. Now, according to some polls, the party is at around 7%.

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

The AfD have their eye on Hohenschönhausen, on the fringes of north-east Berlin. They came top in this area in last year's European elections with 17.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating the left-wing populists. The big three mainstream parties did not even come close.

The AfD's number one candidate in Berlin, Beatrix von Storch, ended her campaign at the big shopping centre here yesterday, while hundreds of anti-far-right protesters tried to drown her out.

The posters on the lamp-posts add to the sense of a battleground between left and right, and a similar message comes from voters leaving a polling station tucked away near some communist-era blocks of flats.

One woman, Cyndi, complained that too many immigrants had moved into the area and she was voting AfD because of that and cuts she had received to her welfare benefits.

Another woman, Barbara, was more concerned about the economy and the minimum wage. As for the Afd: "They're too right-wing and racist."

Katya Adler
BBC Europe editor, reporting from Berlin

No party has won an outright majority in Germany since the end of the Second World War.

The political system here is geared towards coalition-building, which takes time. But voters we met in Berlin’s Mauerpark market told us there was no time to waste.

Germany urgently needed a new government to deal with pressing issues, they said. However, the voters cite different priorities - most frequently, the economy but also migration, welfare, climate change, European defence and Ukraine.

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

He is the man tipped to be Germany's next leader: an antidote to Europe's crisis of confidence, say his supporters.

Friedrich Merz, 69, is a familiar face for his conservative party's old guard.

Politically, he has never come across as exhilarating. And yet he promises to provide Germany with stronger leadership and tackle many of his country's problems within four years.

His explosive bid to tighten migration rules with the support of far-right votes in parliament reveals a man willing to gamble by breaking a major taboo.

It also marks yet another clear break from his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party's more centrist stance under his former party rival Angela Merkel.

Famously sidelined by Merkel before she became chancellor, he quit parliament entirely to pursue a lucrative series of corporate jobs and was written off as yesterday's man.

But there is a sense of inevitability that this 69-year-old comeback kid might be on the cusp of clinching the job he has coveted for so long.

• Read more about Merz's long, winding journey to get to this point

It's approaching 16:30 in Berlin. There are now under two hours left until poll stations close in Germany at 18:00 local time (17:00 GMT).

If you are just joining us, let's get you up to speed.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government lost a vote of confidence in parliament in December and now the 66-year-old is up against four others vying for the top role in this election.

The frontrunner in the race is Friedrich Merz, with the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) favourite to become the biggest party in power.

Far-right AfD, and their first candidate for chancellor Alice Weidel, are tipped to come second.

Robert Habeck's Greens has taken a strong line on aid for Ukraine, and he has forcefully criticised Friedrich Merz for relying on votes from the AfD in parliament. While Sahra Wagenknecht and her BSW party may struggle to reach the 5% national threshold to get into parliament.

Stick with us as we bring you the latest developments and analysis.

• For more: Who's who in German elections and why this vote is important

Image source, Getty Images

Jessica Parker & Kristina Volk
Reporting from Bad Belzig, Brandenburg

Many people we’ve spoken to in the run up to polling day worry that Germany is becoming more divided.

One of them is 60-year-old pensioner Andreas who we met in the town of Bad Belzig, Brandenburg – in Germany’s east.

"I notice the shift in my friend group. It really grew apart. There is the left side and the right side and the middle practically vanished. And the trust in the political middle is completely gone.”

When I asked him about how he views the future, he said: “I'm really curious about the outcome of the elections.”

He’s sceptical about the centre-right CDU’s ability to deliver change but believes there “needs to be a consensus between the left and the CDU.”

While he thinks it’s correct to exclude the far-right from being in government – he also said there needs to be communication between all sides.

Image source, Getty Images

You may have missed it, but earlier this year, Elon Musk enthusiastically endorsed German political party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), in a live-streamed chat with its frontwoman, Alice Weidel.

Musk, who is the world's richest man and political adviser to US President Donald Trump, told Weidel that he was "excited" for the AfD, adding, "I think you’re really the best hope for Germany".

He has also spoken out several times in favour of the AfD in recent weeks, and wrote a highly controversial article for Welt am Sonntag in which he called the AfD the "last spark of hope" for Germany.

Musk justified his intervention by citing his significant investments in the country - notably a huge Tesla plant just outside Berlin.

In return, Weidel has expressed her support for the Trump administration but is yet to receive an official endorsement from the the American president.

• Read more on Musk's endorsement of the AfD, here

Nick Beake
Europe Correspondent

Image source, EPA

Two years of stuttering economic growth that's been epitomised by Germany’s dwindling manufacturing sector dominated the start of this truncated election campaign.

Migration took on added significance after a number of fatal attacks that were carried out by asylum seekers.

The election in the EU’s biggest economy was always going to be important but it has been turbo-charged by key figures in the White House administration, who have either endorsed (Elon Musk) or given time to (Vice President JD Vance) the far-right AfD.

Germany's other main parties have ruled out working with them in government.

Vance berated German leaders for continuing to keep the far-right AfD out of power and President Trump upended the transatlantic relationship by bringing Russia in from the cold and falsely blaming Ukraine for starting the war.

This morning Chancellor Olaf Scholz – who has widely been seen as missing in action on the international stage – cast his vote.

So too did Friedrich Merz, the conservative CDU leader, who's set to replace him.

But the size of his expected victory and the shape of the coalition that emerges will directly affect his influence in Germany and abroad at crucial crossroads for Europe.

Image source, EPA

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has been hugely popular in Germany for almost two years.

Some German men have expressed their fears at the number of attacks in Germany involving suspects who were asylum seekers, and the AfD plans to be strict on migration.

Pew research in 2024 found that 26% of German men had positive views of the AfD, and the share of men holding this opinion has risen 10 points since 2022.

This comes at a time of rising general anxiety among young people according to a recent study by the German Institute for Generational Research. Social media is also playing a part.

Platforms like TikTok allow political groups to bypass mainstream, traditional media, which the far-right regard as hostile. It's clear that AfD "dominates" TikTok when compared to other German parties, says Mauritius Dorn from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

With the horrors of the Nazis further and further in the past, this is a generation that's grown up with parties like the AfD.

Prof Abou-Chadi believes that the far-right, generally, has become more normalised to the point, "they don't seem so extreme any more".

• Learn more about the rise of young male support for the far-right

Image source, Getty Images

Since its formation in 2013, the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has grown rapidly and is tipped to become the second biggest political power in the Bundestag.

Founded as an anti-euro party, the AfD has since shifted its focus to immigration and Islam. Migration is a huge issue in Germany and a big vote winner for the far-right party.

Alice Weidel is the first AfD candidate for chancellor since the party was formed and the Trump administration has publicly supported her - to the outrage of many Germans.

The party has increasingly seen a shift to the far-right, but insists it is conservative and libertarian, not a radical, right-wing force.

The AfD's support base is growing among young voters and, as BBC's Katya Adler writes, it accuses opponents of trying to shut it up, shut it down and keep it out of power.

• Katya Adler: Far right looks for breakthrough in Germany's election
• Who's who in German elections and why this vote is important