The CDU has won this election, but these latest projections from both big public broadcasters indicate that it's fallen short of the 30% it was expected to achieve.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) however now looks on course to break that 20% barrier - 10 points higher than it achieved only four years ago.

The big difference between the two projections from the public broadcasters is that ZDF suggests one of the smaller parties, the left-populist BSW, will squeak into parliament with 5% of the vote. That is yet to be confirmed.

Stick with us as we bring further developments and analysis.

Germany needs a new government fast, but it may have to waitpublished at 21:24 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February

21:24 GMT 23 February

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

Image source, EPA-EFE

Friedrich Merz says he wants to form a government by Easter, in other words over a period of about eight weeks. That might sound like a long time, but coalition-building takes time, and could take far longer than that.

The task, and he says he's up for it, is to get a working majority of 316 seats in the 630-seat parliament. We won't know how many seats the conservatives have until we find out if the small left-populist BSW party gets in. If it does squeeze in, Merz will need to find two other parties and the job gets even harder.

It took the outgoing government more than two months to sign a deal in 2021, and that was considered fast. But if Merz needs to find common ground with the Greens as well as the Social Democrats, then it could go well beyond Easter.

Peter Altmaier, a former German economic minister, tells the BBC News Channel that he thinks Germany needs a government that is "capable to act" and "capable to take a strong position together with allies".

On the AfD, Altmaier says the far-right's success tonight has "shocked" him. "Millions" of Germans have been concerned about "large scale" illegal migration, he says, adding that it is an issue that both the European Union and outgoing German government have not fixed.

"I think this is a matter of utmost concern for Friedrich Merz right now... If he cannot resolve this problem, I expect the extremist parties to grow further."

The conservative CDU-CSU party is predicted to be the largest in the next German parliament with 30% of the vote.

Friedrich Merz, who is now in pole position to become Germany's next chancellor, hailed a "terrific election campaign" and said there's no time to waste in forming a government.

As Jessica Parker reports, that's cause for celebration inside the party's headquarters in Berlin.

Kristina Volk
Reporting from CDU headquarters in Berlin

Maximilian is a 20-year-old CDU activist at the election party in the party's Berlin headquarters.

He says he's happy the CDU has won, but he's also "frightened by the prospect that Die Linke (The Left) has got 8% and the AfD doubled their vote".

When looking ahead to CDU leader Friedrich Merz becoming chancellor, he says "Merz is the perfect man to form a strong government", and he contrasts this to current chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Maximilian says people might not be so ecstatic here as they were expecting a result of 30%.

When asked what might've gone wrong, he blames a shift in narrative that was "led by the radical left who claimed that the CDU will collaborate with the AfD". He adds that this "manipulated young people".

He believes that the most important issues are migration, the economy and the war in Ukraine.

It's important for him that Merz is "decisive", and in regards to the Trump administration, "shows them the barriers".

Weidel the toast of Europe's far-rightpublished at 20:38 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February

20:38 GMT 23 February

Nick Beake
Reporting from AfD headquarters in Berlin

Exit polls invariably bring clear cut moments of triumph or despair.

Tonight, at the AfD headquarters the mood seemed, to me at least, somewhat restrained initially even as the prediction appeared on the big screen that it was on course to become Germany’s second biggest party.

Many here hoped they were riding the crest of a popular wave and the projection would have been even higher. But as the night has worn on and as serious dents have been made in the buffet and fizz on offer, party officials and supporters have become more buoyant.

They were boosted by the appearance of their candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, who told them Germany was being robbed of the chance to see a government featuring the policies of the AfD. She did a victory lap of supporters.

If their glasses were in danger of becoming empty, the far-right French politician Éric Zemmour suddenly popped up and presented her with a bottle of French champagne.

Tonight, Weidel is the toast of the far-right across Europe. For the centre, she is the face of a dangerous and divisive populism that’s on the march and gaining ground.

Huge task ahead but CDU is optimisticpublished at 20:26 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February

20:26 GMT 23 February

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

Friedrich Merz may be adopting a bullish, business-like tone in front of his party faithful – but he’s got a huge task ahead to form an effective, coherent government for Germany.

A political veteran, he likely feels well qualified to take this challenge on. No one ever suggests that Merz is a man short on confidence. And being chancellor is a job he’s wanted for a very long time.

But, after a divisive election campaign, bringing parties back together will be a diplomatic feat. Yet CDU activists I’ve spoken to are hopeful that the heat of the campaign will quickly ease and productive talks will be possible.

If such talks don’t work, then centrist parties know that the far-right AfD is waiting in the wings – ready to point out their political failures.

Friedrich Merz tells the TV debate panel that his top priority is to "strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can be independent of the United States of America" on defence.

"I would've never thought I would need to say something like this on television, but after Donald Trump's statements last week it's clear: this American government doesn't care for Europe."

Merz then brings up how Elon Musk has "interfered" in the German election, calling it "drastic and shameful - similar to what we've heard from Moscow in the past".

Elon Musk enthusiastically endorsed the AfD last month.

Friedrich Merz, who will be Germany's next chancellor, is asked by a presenter how quickly he thinks he can put together a government.

He begins by saying he thinks people should wait until the final election result is confirmed.

Merz says that it will be "difficult" to form a government, but adds that is something "we knew before the election".

The CDU-CSU leader says "we need to workout a timeline" for the parties to talk to each other.

"I'm sure we will have formed a government by Easter," he says, which is in April. "Europe expects us to have a strong government very soon."

Image source, Reuters

Robert Habeck, from the Greens, says Germany needs to be "united" and make "big decisions".

He tells the TV debate panel that the new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, needs to "take responsibility because at the moment Germany and Europe is being pulled in different directions".

Habeck describes his party's election outcome as an "OK result" and a "mixed bag for us".

As a reminder, one exit poll showed the Greens winning 12% of the vote share and another had them as winning 13.5%.

Image source, Reuters

Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), says on the TV debate that he will retire from politics if his party does not make it into the new parliament.

"If the FDP leaves the Bundestag, it is quite clear that I will also leave politics," says Lindner, who served as finance minister until the collapse of the coalition government.

"If my political career ends tomorrow, I will leave with only one feeling: gratitude."

It is not clear whether the FDP will get more than the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Image source, EPA

The state governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder, who is also leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's sister party, says the CSU might not be able to keep its promise to not work together with the Greens.

"Of course, I don’t want to tell the [new] chancellor what he needs to do, but a government without the Greens would be a better government," he says.

"Let's wait for the final results and then we’ll see," he adds.

Image source, Reuters

Next up is AfD leader Alice Weidel, who says her party is "now accepted as a peoples' party".

"We are prepared to work with anybody," she says, adding that Germans want change.

"They really want a coalition between the CDU and AfD - that has been excluded, we need to accept that at the moment," she adds.

But Weidel says that the CDU needs to explain how it can implement its manifesto with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens.

Speaking on the live TV debate, Olaf Scholz says the result is a "bitter one" for the Social Democrats.

The interviewers then turn to Merz who is asked about the potential of having two coalition partners.

He says "it's a clear victory" for his party and he will ensure his government represents everybody.

Merz says he still has to "work out" how to form a government and will ideally want one coalition partner, not two.

He then repeats that he has always said he would not go into coalition with the AfD, before saying we need to wait for the full results.

The main candidates to be chancellor are now taking part in a live TV debate in Germany.

There are eight people on the panel, including Friedrich Merz, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck and Alice Weidel.

We'll bring you the top lines as we get them.

You can watch the debate by clicking Watch Liveat the top of this page.

Biggest turnout for decadespublished at 19:27 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February

19:27 GMT 23 February

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

Turnout in today's election hasn't been this high since before German reunification in 1990, according to the two pollsters used by German TV.

ARD has put the number at 84% and ZDF at 83%.

You have to go back to 1987 for a higher turnout (84.3%) in an election for the Bundestag. Four years ago it was 76.6%.

Put simply, more than four in every five of Germany's 59.2 million voters turned out. We are yet to find out how many of them voted by post, but in 2021 it was particularly high because of the Covid pandemic.

Turnout this year was especially high in eastern states, we're told.

Germans have been energised by this election, because it comes at a pivotal moment for their country. And although there were nine TV debates in the final stretch of the campaign, they did attract big audiences.

Here's a summary of what's been happening since polls closed in Germany:

• The conservative CDU/CSU party is set to be the largest party in the next German parliament with 30% of the vote, according to the first two exit polls
• Friedrich Merz, who is now in pole position to become Germany's next chancellor, hailed a "terrific election campaign" and said there's no time to waste in forming a government
• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to become the second biggest force, with a record 20% of the vote, according to exit polls
• "We have received the confidence of the voters and that should be something everybody else accepts as well," AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla said
• As predicted, it's been a bad night for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democrats (SPD)
• Sholz said the election results are "bitter" for his party, calling it a "defeat"
• Attention now turns to who Merz will try to form a coalition. Latest projections suggest he won't be able to solely rely on the SPD, and he has previously said he won't enter a coalition with the AfD

If the AfD isn't part of a coalition - it will be difficult in oppositionpublished at 18:50 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February

18:50 GMT 23 February

Nick Beake
Reporting from AfD headquarters in Berlin

Image source, Reuters

What AfD leader, Alice Weidel, has been saying to the party faithful in the past hour is that basically there is a real democratic deficit here.

In other words, her party is expected to be the second biggest in Germany, but because all the other parties say they won't work with the AfD, they're not going to form part of the next coalition government.

Weidel was suggesting the next elections may come much sooner than people think. The inference there is that the AfD is going to be as difficult as possible in opposition.

If elections come early, the AfD believes momentum is on their side and that the party is in a really strong position to increase their vote even further.

Because, remember, this time they've doubled their share of the vote compared with the last election.

Here's an initial idea of how today's election may have changed the make-up of German politics. The big section of pale blue indicates how far the AfD has come.

But this image could still change dramatically.

We don't yet know if two of the smaller parties will get into the Bundestag - the populist left BSW and the liberal FDP are currently on 0 seats. But they are both very close to the 5% that they need to have MPs

A projection from Germany's other public broadcaster ZDF suggests the BSW party of Sahra Wagenknecht will get the 5% it needs to get into the Bundestag.

If that's confirmed, the seat numbers will change, and coalition-building for Friedrich Merz will become even trickier.