Kristina Volk
Reporting from CDU headquarters in Berlin

Image source, Reuters

Merz was greeted with cheers when he stepped onto the stage at the CDU headquarters in Berlin.

He was joined by the head of the CSU, Markus Söder, thanked the voters for their trust and proclaimed: "We have won the Bundestag election".

He says it has been "a historic election night" for his conservative party, and that the CDU and its sister party in Bavaria, the CSU, "worked very well together and prepared very well for this election".

Merz adds that he is "aware of the responsibility that now lies ahead" of him.

He tells the crowd that they need to "quickly regain our ability to act so that we can do the right thing at home, so that we are once again present in Europe, so that the world can see that Germany is being governed reliably again".

But that starts tomorrow, he says. Right now, it's time to celebrate.

Who's won and who's lost?published at 18:13 Greenwich Mean Time 23 February

18:13 GMT 23 February

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

There are three winners in this race. That much is clear from latest projections:

• Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU),
• the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD)
• and the Left Party

The CDU are heading for about 29% and Merz says he will get to work on forming a coalition tomorrow morning.

The AfD is hovering at just under 20% and leader Alice Weidel is right in claiming a "historic result" for the party - up by more than nine points on the 2021 election.

The other big winner is the Left, which has surged to well over 8%, partly because of a highly successful social media campaign.

The big losers are the three parties of the outgoing government:

• Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) who are heading for a historically low result,
• the Greens
• and the economic liberals, the FDP, who may well not get into parliament at all

It's too early to say who Merz will try to govern with, but latest projections suggest it won't be easy, and it doesn't look like relying solely on the Social Democrats will be enough.

Image source, Getty Images

More now from Olaf Scholz, who tells supporters in Berlin that "we are fighting for democracy".

"Now we have the far-right - the AfD - and the fact they got such a good election result is something we cannot accept and I will never accept," the Social Democrats (SPD) leader says.

As a reminder, the two exit polls showed AfD receiving the second largest portion of the vote share.

"We need to stick to what we have always said, we mustn't work with the far-right", Scholz says, adding that he hopes other political parties will "keep that promise".

He moves on to say that he wants "a united" SPD that "really makes sure that social democracy remains [an] important political force in the future".

"I am convinced that... our values are important so that our country remains significant," the German chancellor says.

Image source, Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), says the election results are "bitter" for his party, calling it a "defeat".

As a reminder, the exit polls showed the SPD coming in third, with 16-16.5% of the vote.

Speaking to supporters in Berlin, Scholz says it is a moment "in which we have to acknowledge we have lost the election".

In the previous election, he says, the party had a "better" result that he was "responsible" for, adding that this result "is worse, and I am responsible for that too".

Scholz goes on to congratulate Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democrats party.

Friedrich Merz, who is in pole position to become Germany's next chancellor, has been speaking at his party headquarters.

He hailed a "terrific election campaign" but spoke of his "respect for our political opponents".

"Everybody in the world sees that Germany has a reliable and trustworthy government," he said, adding that "now we can also actually party here".

"Tonight we will be celebrating and as of tomorrow we will be resuming our work."

• Read more - Friedrich Merz: Risk-taker who flirted with far right

Dr Jana Puglierin from the European Council on Foreign Relations says she believes the exit poll results are in line with a "broader trend throughout Europe".

"I think Germany has become a bit more normal, we have been an outlier in Europe with relatively small numbers of the far-right," she says, referring to the rise of the AfD.

The senior policy fellow tells the BBC that this is "worrying me greatly", adding that a new coalition government will have to deliver.

It was "crucial" for the leader of the conservative CDU party, Friedrich Merz, to have his party receive 30% or more of the vote share, Dr Puglierin says, adding that below that figure "opens the field for possible competitors".

Here's the first projection from German public broadcaster ARD. Unlike the earlier exit poll, a projection is based on real results, but as you can see, the numbers are very similar.

The Christian Democrats (CDU) are set for about 211 seats in parliament according to this calculation. If these numbers are borne out then they might be able form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), despite their poor performance.

But that depends on whether the yellow party - the economic liberal FDP - gets into parliament. If the FDP doesn't get in, then the arithmetic works in the CDU's favour.

Under 5% and the FDP won't get in, but it's too early to say.

There are 630 seats in the new parliament.

Image source, Reuters

The leaders of the far-right AfD have just spoken and reacted to the exit polls which show their party in a comfortable second place.

Party co-chairman Tino Chrupalla says he is "very proud of our party".

"We were united, our campaign was targeted and we were disciplined," he says, standing alongside co-chairwoman Alice Weidel.

"We can really bring about a epochal change," he says, adding "we are always open to negotiations".

"We have received the confidence of the voters and that should be something everybody else accepts as well," he adds.

Other parties have been adamant that they will not form a coalition with the AfD.

But Chrupalla says his party has been "given a mandate to bring about political change".

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

Image source, Getty Images

Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democrats have an unassailable lead, according to both exit polls.

So he will be in the box seat to form a new government. But if these numbers are borne out, it is not clear-cut if he can form a coalition with just one other party, the Social Democrats. It may all depend on whether one of the other parties gets into parliament or not.

If he needs to find a third party, it could take time, and he's a man in a hurry.

But the other big story is that the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is set to become the second biggest force in German politics. Four years ago they polled just 10.4% and now they're on course for 19.5%-20%, according to the exit polls.

Their message appears to have cut through with millions of Germans in the west as well as the east.

Exit polls are based on surveys of voters who have just cast their ballots at hundreds of representative polling stations. They tend to be relatively accurate, but we won't need to wait long before we get projections which will be based on initial results.

Here is another set of exit poll results, this time from German broadcaster ARD:

• CDU - CSU - 29%
• AFD - 19.5%
• SPD - 16%
• Greens - 13.5%
• Die Linke - 8.5%
• FDP - 4.9%
• BSW - 4.7%

Image source, Getty Images

The exit poll from the ZDF broadcaster has just arrived:

• CDU - CSU - 28.5%
• AFD -20%
• SPD - 16.5%
• Greens -12%
• Die Linke - 9%
• FDP - 5%
• BSW - 5%

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Getty Images

It has just gone 18:00 in Germany, and polls have officially closed. Here's what happens next:

• We are expecting exit polls very soon. These are based on anonymous and voluntary surveys carried out at 560 (out of 80,000) polling stations. In 2021 they were relatively accurate
• At about 18:30 local time (17:30 GMT) we're expecting projections based on first counts of votes cast. These may be a bit different from the exit polls, because the exit polls don’t take into account postal voting. The projections do and they will improve as they update during the evening
• Official results are expected early on Monday and coalition talks are likely to start soon after

With just a few minutes until polls close, there is an energetic - and very busy - atmosphere at the Berlin headquarters of the Christian Democrats, where the BBC's Jessica Parker is reporting from.

"There’s a lot of media here because this is the party that expects to come top of the polling," our correspondent says, adding that the beers are flowing.

Jessica Parker & Kristina Volk
Reporting from Ilsede, Lower Saxony

Mika, a 23-year-old who we met at a social democratic (SPD) campaign event in Lower Saxony, said he’s worried the far-right AfD could gain more influence over the coming years.

Surveys and polls suggest that the AfD’s becoming increasingly popular among men of Mika’s age – which he believed is partly the fault of other parties.

“Especially the centre-left or left parties, they did not address young men in the past years, maybe in the past decade, because they are very into feminism.“

He said he personally has nothing against feminism but thinks the mainstream parties have failed to reach out to young men.

“I think it's very sad that there are so many young men voting for the AfD, but they are addressing them and they say, we know your problems, we can solve them. Of course they cannot, but they say it. And I hope that the other parties would say that as well.”

Nick Beake
Europe Correspondent

AfD supporters are arriving at their election night HQ in northern Berlin.

There’s food, drinks, music and laughter - all of which you might expect from a party which is forecast to double its percentage of votes on last time and finish as the second biggest party. There is particularly tight security all around the venue with police cordoning off nearby streets.

All of the big parties will have similar arrangements but the AfD is uniquely divisive. Critics say it is a racist and dangerous threat. Supporters here believe they speak for an increasingly larger number of Germans and have clear policies which put Germany first.

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

We are now less than 30 minutes away from polls closing in Germany.

A key thing to watch out for in this election is what kind of parliamentary majority can be mustered together?

As the exit polls roll in, everyone will be crunching the numbers to see if the frontrunner to be the next Chancellor, conservative CDU leader Friedrich Merz, has the option of forming a two-party coalition.

Or will he face the prospect of trying to form a three-party deal?

That’s absolutely what he wants to avoid. He's aware of the bickering that has plagued current-Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tri-party coalition. That, of course, collapsed, sparking this snap poll.

Merz’s pledge to deliver a stronger administration in Berlin hinges, to some degree, on the mathematical possibilities that Germany’s electorate delivers.

Kristina Volk
Reporting from Germany

The AfD and its followers have long been dominating social media.

The far-right party’s leader Alice Weidel has around 2.9 million followers across various platforms and about 893,400 followers on TikTok alone.

In the last month, it's the party Die Linke though that has been increasing their following on- and offline.

The party’s co-chair and candidate in this general election, Heidi Reichinnek, now has around 559,300 followers on TikTok. A sharp increase in followers came after her speech about the “Brandmauer” (firewall) - a policy of non-cooperation with the far right - went viral on social media.

According to Die Linke, they've had a flood of new party members in recent weeks, with their total number reaching an all-time high of 81,200 members.

Mid-January, the opinion polls showed Die Linke at around 3%. In Germany, 5% of the vote is needed to make it into parliament. Now, according to some polls, the party is at around 7%.

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

The AfD have their eye on Hohenschönhausen, on the fringes of north-east Berlin. They came top in this area in last year's European elections with 17.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating the left-wing populists. The big three mainstream parties did not even come close.

The AfD's number one candidate in Berlin, Beatrix von Storch, ended her campaign at the big shopping centre here yesterday, while hundreds of anti-far-right protesters tried to drown her out.

The posters on the lamp-posts add to the sense of a battleground between left and right, and a similar message comes from voters leaving a polling station tucked away near some communist-era blocks of flats.

One woman, Cyndi, complained that too many immigrants had moved into the area and she was voting AfD because of that and cuts she had received to her welfare benefits.

Another woman, Barbara, was more concerned about the economy and the minimum wage. As for the Afd: "They're too right-wing and racist."

Katya Adler
BBC Europe editor, reporting from Berlin

No party has won an outright majority in Germany since the end of the Second World War.

The political system here is geared towards coalition-building, which takes time. But voters we met in Berlin’s Mauerpark market told us there was no time to waste.

Germany urgently needed a new government to deal with pressing issues, they said. However, the voters cite different priorities - most frequently, the economy but also migration, welfare, climate change, European defence and Ukraine.

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

He is the man tipped to be Germany's next leader: an antidote to Europe's crisis of confidence, say his supporters.

Friedrich Merz, 69, is a familiar face for his conservative party's old guard.

Politically, he has never come across as exhilarating. And yet he promises to provide Germany with stronger leadership and tackle many of his country's problems within four years.

His explosive bid to tighten migration rules with the support of far-right votes in parliament reveals a man willing to gamble by breaking a major taboo.

It also marks yet another clear break from his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party's more centrist stance under his former party rival Angela Merkel.

Famously sidelined by Merkel before she became chancellor, he quit parliament entirely to pursue a lucrative series of corporate jobs and was written off as yesterday's man.

But there is a sense of inevitability that this 69-year-old comeback kid might be on the cusp of clinching the job he has coveted for so long.

• Read more about Merz's long, winding journey to get to this point