Summary

  • Analysts from the IFS think tank have given their take on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Budget

  • They say it is difficult to calculate what effect childcare and pension changes will have on the workforce

  • Hunt says extending free childcare to include younger children will make it easier for more parents to work

  • Independent budget watchdog the OBR expects the move will bring 60,000 more people into the workforce

  • Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves earlier criticised the speed at which his plan will be introduced, but did not offer an alternative timeframe

  • On pensions, Hunt says scrapping the £1m tax-free cap on pension savings will keep key NHS staff from retiring - but can't say how many

  • Labour has vowed to reverse the move, saying it only helps the richest in the country

  1. Budgets are about choicespublished at 14:22 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Ione Wells
    Political correspondent

    Budgets are often full of words like “headroom” and what the government “can” and “can’t” do.

    But a better way to think about budgets is that they are about choices. How does the government choose to balance competing contexts like borrowing, spending, debt, and inflation?

    Government budgets, after all, don’t work like household ones.

    So it’s the government’s choices that critics, supporters and analysts alike will be honing in on today.

    The director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies has posed one question for the government already, posting on Twitter, external that “the government has spent months saying it can't find any money to prevent nurses and teachers getting very big pay cuts. He just found £6 billion to cut fuel duties. That's a choice.”

    I think we can expect this to be a choice the unions and opposition parties may well ask the government to justify further.

  2. Analysis

    The pain of higher bills isn't overpublished at 14:19 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Dharshini David
    Economics Correspondent

    The chancellor says the government has achieved its target of halving inflation this year, but it will still be above target at 2.9% by the end of 2023.

    But just as the main cause of soaring prices was global - food, wholesale energy costs soaring due to concerns about the implications of war in Ukraine - so too is the easing of those rises.

    Calming of global supply concerns is easing those costs. Government policy has helped but its not the main cause.

    And remember, inflation of 2.9% still means prices, on average, will be rising - just less rapidly than before. The pain of higher bills isn’t over

  3. When will free childcare changes begin?published at 14:15 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Jeremy Hunt announced an extension of 30 hours of free childcare to one and two-year-olds in England. But the plan is not being implemented immediately.

    Here are the key dates:

    Working parents of two-year-olds will be able to access 15 hours of free care from April 2024.

    From September 2024, 15 hours will be extended to all children from 9 months upwards.

    And from September 2025 every single working parent of under-fives will have access to 30 hours free childcare per week.

  4. Analysis

    The good news and the bad newspublished at 14:08 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Dharshini David
    Economics Correspondent

    The good news is the government’s number crunchers don’t think we’ll facing a recession this year after all.

    The bad news is that this Budget for Growth has its work cut out; we are thousands of pounds per household worse off than we could be if the economy had continued on its pre-pandemic path.

    Lower wholesale gas prices, government support and a more resilient economy means the Office for Budget Responsibility expects the economy to shrink by less this year 0.2% rather than 1.4%.

    But that still means that, strip our taxes and inflation, the majority of households will be worse off than a year ago

    The OBR expects growth to accelerate after that - but at first look is more optimistic on that score than many, including the Bank of England.

    The chancellor may have helped steady the ship - but there may still be a. Way to go before we can say with certainty that prosperity has been turbocharged.

  5. A reminder about our Q&A this afternoonpublished at 14:06 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Emma Owen
    Live reporter

    We're going to be hearing from lots of our correspondents next, but before we get to them, just a reminder that you can send us your questions about the Budget - we'll be answering them at about 16:00GMT.

    Whether you're a parent wondering about childcare costs, a billpayer unsure about energy costs or anyone else with a question or concern, please get in touch.

    You can contact us in the following ways:

    In some cases a selection of your comments and questions will be published, displaying your name and location as you provide it, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published.

  6. So.... what was in the budget?published at 13:59 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Jeremy Hunt walking awayImage source, pa

    Phew, there was a lot in that speech. Here are some of the key announcements:

    On energy:

    • Government subsidies limiting typical household energy bills to £2,500 a year will be extended for three months, until the end of June
    • Energy charges for prepayment meters will be brought into line with prices for customers paying by direct debit

    On childcare:

    • Hunt announced 30 hours of free weekly childcare for working parents is being extended to cover children below the age of three - and will eventually cover all children from the age of nine months

    On pensions:

    • The cap on the amount workers can accumulate in pensions savings over their lifetime before having to pay extra tax - currently £1.07m - will be abolished
    • The tax-free yearly allowance for pension pots is to rise from £40,000 to £60,000 - having been frozen for nine years

    On taxes

    • The 5p cut to fuel duty on petrol and diesel, due to end in April, is to be kept for another year
    • From August, alcohol taxes in pubs to be 11p in the pound lower than the rate in supermarkets

    On disability:

    • Work Capability Assessment abolished and funding for up to 50,000 places on a new voluntary employment scheme for disabled people, called Universal Support

    On businesses

    • The main rate of corporation tax, paid by businesses on taxable profits over £250,000, confirmed to increase from 19% to 25%
    • Companies able to deduct investment in new machinery and technology to lower their taxable profits
    • Tax breaks and other benefits for 12 new Investment Zones across the UK, funded by £80m each over the next five years

    On defence:

    • Commitment to raise defence spending by £11bn over the next five years

    Get all the announcements here - Budget 2023: key points at-a-glance.

  7. Postpublished at 13:59 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Emma Owen
    Live reporter

    Keir Starmer has finished giving his thoughts on the Budget and responding to Jeremy Hunt.

    Lots of MPs are now leaving the Commons.

    Now... time to catch up and digest everything we've heard. Stick with us.

  8. 'Same old Tory choices' being made, says Starmerpublished at 13:57 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Starmer talks about the government's Energy Price Guarantee, stating that the average energy bill has doubled in the last 18 months, and the average mortgage payment is up £2,000 a year - "a massive hit to living standards", he says.

    He adds that there is still "no real ambition" for industrial strategy from this government, and no real ambition on clean energy that will give people cheaper bills. Nor is enough being done on housebuilding, he says.

    It's the "same old Tory choices" and "sticking plaster politics", he states.

  9. Postpublished at 13:55 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Starmer says the chancellor's "boast" about bringing down inflation is "ridiculous".

    People see their tax burden at the highest level for 70 years, he says.

    He adds that it is the sacrifice of working people who are earning less and enjoying life less that is helping to bring inflation down.

    Turning to Hunt's childcare policy changes, he says "of course more money in the system is obviously a good thing".

    This gets cheers and chants from the Tory benches, to which Starmer quips: "They obviously didn't listen to when he said he's actually going to do it."

    "They won't be here," a Labour MP shouts from behind, presumably referring to the next general election, due in 2025.

    Starmer adds that it's no using having more hours of free childcare "if you can't access them" - and says this pushes the cost to parents "outside the offer".

  10. Postpublished at 13:51 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Starmer asks the Commons - and in turn the public - to judge the Conservatives "by their choices", accusing them of sticking-plaster politics.

    He says the government has failed to lead and that Labour has signalled the way for many of the policies now being adopted, including the Energy Price Guarantee.

    The Tories have run down public services, created chaos in the mortgage industry and missed opportunities for a proper windfall tax, Starmer says.

    Once again, working people will pay the cost, the Labour leader adds to cheers from his benches.

  11. Postpublished at 13:51 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Starmer moves onto Ukraine next.

    He says Labour supports the government's military spending, but adds that what Labour can't accept is using war as an excuse for failure.

    Our economy has weak foundations, he says, adding that the global crisis hit Britain more than other countries, and that wages in this country are lower now than they were 13 years ago.

    "The war didn't ban onshore wind," he says, "they did". He goes on to list the scrapping of the home insulation scheme and gas storage facilities.

    These decisions hurt working people battling the cost of living crisis, he says.

  12. Postpublished at 13:49 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Starmer says the labour market is broken, seven million people are on NHS waiting lists and ill health is on the rise.

    He accuses Hunt of resorting to "classic short-term sticking plasters" and ducking problems today resulting in "pain for working people tomorrow".

    Britain has enormous potential, says Starmer, but adds that the chancellor's announcements "are nowhere near the mark".

  13. Postpublished at 13:47 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Starmer says the figures published today spell out the problems of the economy, with Britain facing a "year of stagnation and "non-existent" growth.

    He says the UK is the worst performing nation in the G7, adding that the country has spent "13 years stuck in a doom loop" under Tory governments.

  14. 'Tory cupboard is as bare as the salad aisle'published at 13:46 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    The Labour leader accuses the chancellor of "dressing up stagnation as stability" and putting the country "on a path of managed decline".

    He says the economy needs major surgery, but the Budget "leaves us in the waiting room with a sticking plaster".

    After today, Starmer adds, we know the Tory cupboard is "as bare as the salad aisle in the supermarket".

  15. Starmer begins his response to Hunt's Budgetpublished at 13:43 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    STarmer

    Sir Keir Starmer takes to his feet and says that for all the hype it's "a budget for growth that downgrades the growth forecast".

    "His opening boast was that things aren't quite as bad now as they were in October last year after the kamikaze budget.

    "The more he pretends everything is fine, the more he shows just how out of touch they are," he says.

  16. Labour leader Keir Starmer is up nowpublished at 13:37 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Emma Owen
    Live reporter

    Well, that was a busy 55 minutes. We've heard a lot of announcements and now we're hearing from Keir Starmer.

    Stick with us - we've got plenty of analysis and explainers coming later, and we'll be teasing out some of the detail we couldn't get to straight away.

  17. Government to fund more wraparound care for school-age childrenpublished at 13:32 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says the government will fund schools and local authorities to increase supply of wraparound care so all parents of school-age children can drop their children off between 8am and 6pm.

    He says the ambition is that all schools will start to offer a wraparound offer, either on their own or in partnership with other schools, by September 2026.

  18. Free childcare to be extended to cover children from nine monthspublished at 13:31 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023
    Breaking

    As trailed, Hunt announces 30 hours of free weekly childcare is being extended to cover children below the age of three. It will eventually cover all children from the age of nine months, he says. It will only apply to households where both parents are working.

    The provision only applies within term-time - so 38 weeks of the year.

    We'll bring you further details of how this will be implemented shortly.

  19. Postpublished at 13:31 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says children in care should be given all possible help to make a normal working life possible when they reach adulthood.

    Often, he adds, they depend on foster families, so he is nearly doubling the Qualifying Care Relief threshold to £18,140 which will mean a tax cut for a qualifying carer averaging £450 a year.

    He is also increase funding for the Staying Close programme to help more care leavers into work.

    Jeremy Hunt delivery budgetImage source, PA Media
  20. Parents on benefits to get more money for childcare upfrontpublished at 13:30 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Parents on Universal Credit will now receive up to £951 for one child and £1,630 for two children per month which will now be paid upfront.