Summary

  • Analysts from the IFS think tank have given their take on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Budget

  • They say it is difficult to calculate what effect childcare and pension changes will have on the workforce

  • Hunt says extending free childcare to include younger children will make it easier for more parents to work

  • Independent budget watchdog the OBR expects the move will bring 60,000 more people into the workforce

  • Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves earlier criticised the speed at which his plan will be introduced, but did not offer an alternative timeframe

  • On pensions, Hunt says scrapping the £1m tax-free cap on pension savings will keep key NHS staff from retiring - but can't say how many

  • Labour has vowed to reverse the move, saying it only helps the richest in the country

  1. Postpublished at 12:51 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says, due to the government's leadership, the UK can expect a "slightly lower tax burden" compared to what the OBR predicted in its Autumn forecast.

    To cheers from his own benches, and laughs from those opposite, the chancellor adds: "Other parties run out of money but a Conservative government is reducing borrowing and improving public finances."

  2. Postpublished at 12:50 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says at the autumn statement he said public sector net borrowing must be below 3% over the same period.

    He says the OBR today confirmed we are meeting that rule with a buffer of £39.2bn and our deficit falls in every year of the forecast, borrowing falling from 5.1% in 2023-24 to 1.7% 2027-28.

  3. Hunt turns to issue of government debtpublished at 12:47 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says the government is on track to reduce debt. Underlying debt will be 92.4% of GDP by next year, falling every year after until 2027-28.

    The chancellor says they are "meeting our plan" to have debt falling by the fifth year of forecast and that debt as proportion of GDP remains lower than Canada, US, Italy, Japan

    Hunt adds that underlying debt in three years' time is forecast to be lower than it was in the autumn of last year.

  4. Duty on a pint 'frozen'published at 12:45 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023
    Breaking

    Hunt says from 1 August the duty on draught products in pubs will be up to 11p lower than the duty in supermarkets, "a differential we will maintain as part of a new Brexit pubs guarantee".

    This is in addition to changes already due to come into effect in August.

    "British ale may be warm, but the duty on a pint is frozen," he adds.

    Media caption,

    'British ale is warm but the duty on a pint is frozen' - Hunt

  5. Fuel duty to remain frozen and 5p cut will staypublished at 12:44 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023
    Breaking

    Fuel duty will be frozen and a 5p reduction will be maintained for a further year.

    This will save the average driver £100 next year.

  6. Voluntary sector gets cash to help with suicide preventionpublished at 12:44 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt announces he will assign £10m for the next two years for the voluntary sector to stop families experiencing suicide.

    He says it will play an even bigger role in "stopping families facing that intolerable heartache".

  7. Hunt promises cash for leisure centrespublished at 12:43 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt talks about the "risk to swimming pools" and other community facilities of rising costs, to much uproar in the Commons as MPs make their feelings known.

    The chancellor goes on to lay out a £63m fund to "keep our public leisure centres afloat".

  8. Postpublished at 12:40 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt is now talking about prepayment metres which concerns over four million UK households.

    He says they're often the poorest households but currently pay more than comparable households on direct debit charges.

    Hunt confirms that today, he'll bring their charges in line with comparable direct debit charges.

    Media caption,

    Hunt: 'Energy premiums paid by poorest households coming to an end'

  9. Energy Price Guarantee will stay at current levelpublished at 12:40 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt confirms the Energy Price Guarantee will remain at £2,500 for the typical household for the next three months.

    He says this will save the average family a further £160 on top of support measures already announced.

  10. Postpublished at 12:39 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says "high inflation is the root cause" of the strike action currently affecting many industries in the UK.

    The government will continue to work hard to settle those disputes, he tells the Commons, "but only in a way that does not fuel inflation".

  11. Inflation set to fall to 2.9% by end of yearpublished at 12:38 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023
    Breaking

    The rate of price rises, or inflation, is forecast to fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    The pace of price rises is set to slow by more than expected this year.

    The rate of price rises - known as inflation - is currently 10.1%. It should actually be closer to 2%, which is the target that the Bank of England aims for when it is setting interest rates.

    Last November, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that the average inflation rate for 2023 would be 7.4%. It now expects 2.9% by the end of 2023.

  12. Postpublished at 12:37 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says his budget will achieve growth by "removing obstacles that stop businesses investing; by tackling labour shortages that stop them recruiting; by breaking down barriers that stop people working; and by harnessing British ingenuity to make us a science and technology superpower."

  13. Postpublished at 12:37 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Hunt says the government has protected families with one off support and the energy price guarantee.

    "Today we deliver the next part of the plan, a budget for growth", he states.

  14. Postpublished at 12:37 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    The chancellor says the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that because of changing economic factors and the measures he takes, the UK will not now enter a technical recession this year.

    "They forecast we will meet the prime minister's priorities to halve inflation, reduce debt and get the economy growing."

    We'll hear from the OBR later.

    Media caption,

    Hunt: British economy proving the doubters wrong

  15. Postpublished at 12:36 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    He says he's reporting today on a "British economy that is proving the doubters wrong".

    Following difficult decisions to deliver stability in the Autumn, he says, government borrowing costs have fallen, mortgage rates are down and inflation has peaked.

    The chancellor says the IMF have said the UK economy is on right track, but the government will remain vigilant and won't hesitate to take any steps for economic stability.

  16. UK will avoid a recession this yearpublished at 12:34 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023
    Breaking

    The UK is expected to avoid a technical recession in 2023, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, Jeremy Hunt tells the Commons.

  17. We're hearing Jeremy Hunt's 'back-to-work Budget'published at 12:32 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Ione Wells
    Political correspondent

    The prime minister has made “growing the economy” one of his key priorities.

    More money and services being produced in the UK, means more tax being paid too.

    While the economy did expand in January, it fell sharply in December - and ONS figures show the economy stagnated overall in November to January.

    We can expect lots of the measures announced shortly by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to be accompanied by claims of how they will try to achieve this goal.

    It’s been dubbed the “back-to-work” Budget as lots of the measures will be aimed at getting working age people who are not working, back to the workplace.

    It’s expected this will include incentives for over 50s to not retire early, support for people who are disabled and out of work, and perhaps most significantly extra childcare support for working parents of 1 and 2-year-olds to encourage more parents to return to work.

  18. Hunt up at the despatch boxpublished at 12:31 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Emma Owen
    Live reporter

    Hunt

    Right, that's Prime Minister's Questions finished, but the House of Commons chamber remains extremely busy.

    That's because Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is now standing at the despatch box, about to deliver his Budget.

    We're due to hear a wide range of financial announcements, including confirmation of an extension to energy bill support and moves on childcare and pensions.

    We'll bring you all the latest from his speech. You can also watch the action live by pressing the Play button at the top of this page.

  19. Analysis

    Growth, growth, growth - but how to achieve it?published at 12:31 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Simon Jack
    Business editor

    The problem the chancellor is trying to solve today is economic growth.

    For that to happen, businesses need to... grow.

    Two big impediments are a lack of investment and lack of workers. On the first, the chancellor will try and offset an increase in corporation tax by offering continued tax breaks for companies that invest. On the second, a combination of carrot (pension boost) and stick (skills boot camps) policies to get people back in the workforce.

    Expect to hear the word "supercharge" at least once today. The chancellor is expected to commit to new investment zones which will offer government funding and favourable business rates to stimulate growth in economically challenged areas.

    But business leaders have told the BBC that the UK lacks a clear industrial strategy and the tens of millions on offer in investment zones is dwarfed by the hundreds of billions in subsidies being provided in the US and expected to be copied by the EU.

    Many will also point to the fact that the government's flagship levelling-up investment - HS2 - has been delayed to reduce its annual cost.

  20. What is the government doing about hospitals?published at 12:28 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Next there is discussion about the state of hospitals.

    Labour's Karen Buck speaks of the government's aim of building 40 new hospitals three years ago, and the PM's recent declaration of his intention to proceed with the plan.

    But she says hospitals in disrepair are still waiting to be allocated money to fund building works.

    Sunak responds by saying he is committed to the new hospitals programme, adding that the government has committed record sums to it, and that conversations are happening across country regarding it.