First analysis from polling expertpublished at 22:09 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2019
Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert
The variation in the ups and downs in the parties' shares of the vote reflects differences in how constituencies voted in the 2016 referendum.
The Conservatives are expected to advance most strongly and Labour fall back most in areas that voted most strongly for Leave - many of them more working class seats.
In contrast, the Conservative share of the vote is expected to fall back on 2017 in those areas that voted most strongly for Remain, while Labour’s vote is expected to fall back rather less.
However, even in the most strongly pro-Remain seats there could still be a small swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
One consequence of this pattern is that the Conservative share of the vote is expected to fall back slightly both in London and in Scotland, and do little more than replicate the 2017 vote in the South East outside of London.
The party will advance most strongly in the Midlands and the North of England.
The pattern of Labour performance is largely the obverse of the Conservative Party, with the party’s votes falling most heavily in the North and Midlands.