Summary

  • Labour has overturned huge Conservative majorities to win Thursday's two by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth

  • "It's history in the making," hails party leader Sir Keir Starmer, saying the results were extraordinary but he won't get carried away

  • Tories have blamed it on low turnout and their voters staying at home - with Education Secretary Gillian Keegan saying there's "no real love for Labour" on the doorstep

  • Labour emerged victorious in Mid Beds - Nadine Dorries' former seat - which the Tories have held for more than 90 years and had a majority of more than 24,000

  • The result shows “nowhere is off limits", said new MP Alistair Strathern, a former maths teacher

  • The Conservatives were also defeated in Tamworth, where Labour's Sarah Edwards overturned a majority of more than 19,000

  1. Starmer on way to second victory rally in Tamworthpublished at 11:07 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    In the next few minutes we're expecting to see Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer arrive in Tamworth.

    It's the second stop for him today, and he'll meet the area's new MP, Sarah Edwards, as well as party members. We'll update you on what he says.

  2. You can feel Labour's confidence growingpublished at 10:49 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Nick Eardley
    Political correspondent

    Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks to the media at the Forest Centre in Marston Moretaine, Bedfordshire after newly elected Labour candidate Alistair Strathern won the Mid Bedfordshire by-election.Image source, PA Media

    Keir Starmer is getting used to these victory rallies.

    I was with him a couple of weeks ago in Rutherglen, where Labour declared itself back in business in Scotland. He's off to Tamworth shortly.

    This morning in Mid-Beds, he was trying desperately not to get ahead of himself.

    He told BBC Breakfast: "I don't want to get carried away - I know there's a long way to go."

    But despite that, you can feel the confidence in the Labour Party growing. Starmer described the result as a gamechanger.

    He said Labour now had a confidence it could compete everywhere - and win seats in parts of the country they'd never won before. This was, he concluded, "history in the making".

    There's a long way to go until the general election.

    But there is a pattern of sizeable swings to Labour at key by-elections.

    That is good news for Starmer - and could be a nightmare for Rishi Sunak.

  3. How low was voter turnout?published at 10:33 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Tories have blamed the landslide Labour victory on low voter turnout - saying many people stayed at home.

    In Tamworth, 36% of constituents turned up to vote at this by-election. To put that into context; in the last 2019 election, there was a 64.3% voter turnout in that constituency.

    Mid Bedfordshire had 44% voter turnout this time around, compared to 73.7% in 2019.

    However turnout is always lower in by-elections.

  4. Don't underestimate smaller parties: How they may have helped Labour winpublished at 10:13 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Amy Holmes
    Political reporter, BBC Three Counties

    Gareth Mackey
    Image caption,

    Independent Gareth Mackey finished in fourth place taking nearly 2,000 votes

    The role of the smaller parties in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election shouldn’t be underestimated when you drill down into the end results.

    Independent Gareth Mackey finished in fourth place overnight (1,865 votes), whilst Dave Holland from Reform UK (1,487 votes) ended the evening in fifth spot.

    With Labour’s Alistair Strathern winning by a majority of 1,192, it could be argued that if either of those two hadn’t stood, then perhaps those votes might have been enough for a Conservative hold for candidate Festus Akinbusoye.

    The bad news though for all the candidates outside the top three is that they won’t get their deposits back. The threshold to retain your £500 deposit to stand is 5% of the vote, with Mackey coming closest to that mark, but missing out, with 4.6%.

  5. Very few people actually switched their vote, says government ministerpublished at 10:10 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    British Secretary of State for Education Gillian Keegan leaves Downing Street after a cabinet meeting in London, Britain, 17 October 2023. Cabinet meeting of the British Government, London, United Kingdom - 17 Oct 2023Image source, EPA

    More reaction to the by-election results now from a high-ranking Conservative.

    Education Secretary Gillian Keegan says by-elections are "always tricky" for serving governments, but on the doorsteps very few people were switching and there was "no real love for Labour".

    She adds that the government has to deliver on its key priorities, to demonstrate to the Tory voters who stayed at home that it's worth them turning out.

    Away from the by-elections, Keegan announces she will set minimum service levels in schools and colleges for future strikes, to protect children and parents from their impact.

  6. What's the latest?published at 09:56 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Andre Rhoden-Paul
    Live reporter

    If you've just joined us, it's been a busy night and morning with Labour seizing two very safe Conservative seats in by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth. Here's the latest:

    • Big wins: It's been an outstanding night for Labour who overturned two huge majorities to win both seats. The result in Mid Bedfordshire is the biggest majority to ever be overturned at a by-election - Nadine Dorries won by 24,664 just four years ago - and Labour has never won it. The Tories have held it for more than 90 years. The result in Tamworth, meanwhile - triggered after Chris Pincher resigned - saw Labour's Sarah Edwards overturn a majority of 19,634. It is the second biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since World War Two
    • In Mid Beds: Labour's Alistair Strathern - a former maths teacher who is the new MP there - said it showed "nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party"
    • In Tamworth: New MP Sarah Edwards said a lot of voters had switched to Labour for the first time and pledged "I will not let you down"
    • Starmer celebrates: On a victory visit to Mid Beds this morning, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called the double by-election win historic. He claimed the results were a "gamechanger" and showed "a confidence now in this changed Labour Party" to win seats they haven't won before
    • Tories react: Conservatives have sought to portray the by-elections as mid-term blips, exaggerated by difficulties surrounding the previous MPs and also low voter turnout. Tory chairman Greg Hands said the results were "disappointing" but that the "biggest problem was Conservative voters staying at home" - and that people weren't necessarily energised by Labour
    • What does this mean for a general election? Elections expert Prof Sir John Curtice said the two results were "extremely bad news" for the Conservatives and shows they're in deep trouble. But he says we cannot presume that the Conservatives would do so badly if there were a general election anytime soon - but PM Rishi Sunak needs to deliver a dramatic reversal of a public mood

  7. Conservative ex-chancellor predicts electoral Armageddonpublished at 09:26 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Rob Watson
    BBC political correspondent

    These are historically bad results for the governing Conservatives.

    They suggest the party is heading for a heavy defeat - or electoral Armageddon as Tory former Chancellor George Osborne put it - at the next general election, due some time in the next 12 months or so.

    The Conservatives still hope they can turn things round - but no party has recovered from such defeats and poor opinion polling since the Second World War.

  8. Watch: Starmer says voters crying out for changepublished at 09:23 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Media caption,

    'Voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government' - Sir Keir Starmer

  9. The government must do better - Fabricantpublished at 09:17 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Some more Tory reaction coming in - writing on X, external, formerly known as Twitter, Conservative Michael Fabricant sent his congratulations to his new fellow Staffordshire MP Sarah Edwards, as well as Alistair Strathern in Mid Bedfordshire.

    But, like other Tories this morning he also blamed the low turnout, saying it meant there was "little evidence of Conservative voters switching to Labour unlike under Blair".

    "HMG must do better!" he added.

  10. Truss and Johnson legacy to blame, says Tory chairmanpublished at 09:09 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Turning away from Labour's celebrations for a moment, let's have a look at how the Conservatives are reacting.

    “Legacy issues” from the chaotic end of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson’s terms as prime minister were to blame for last night’s by-election defeats, Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands has said.

    Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, Hands reiterated that the results were due to a disillusioned Conservative vote base staying at home.

    He pointed out Labour, despite winning, made limited gains in actual votes cast. It “wasn’t like Tony Blair with people switching to Labour with any degree of enthusiasm,” he added.

    “The by-elections were about legacy issues,” Mr Hands said, whereas the next general election will be a real test for the prime minister and will be contested on “giving a full term to Rishi Sunak”.

  11. Starmer: We're not getting carried awaypublished at 08:49 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    But Starmer tells the BBC's Nick Eardley he won't get carried away - there's still a "long way to go".

    He says this is a "gamechanger" which shows there is now a "confidence in this changed Labour Party" and shows they can win seats they've never won before, like Mid Beds.

    But he cautioned against complacency, saying “we know that we have to earn every vote, people have put their trust and confidence in us and we thank them for that, but we still have to go on from here earning the vote across the country.”

    Every vote is precious and needs to be earned, he says, so Labour will go forward "humbly".

  12. Let this result persuade others to vote for us, says Starmerpublished at 08:43 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Starmer says he hopes this "incredible result" will persuade other people to vote Labour - the "party of national renewal", he adds.

  13. Starmer: History in the makingpublished at 08:43 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Now speaking to the BBC, Starmer calls the two results extraordinary and a "very good night" for Labour.

    "These are two very, very important victories for us.

    "Each of these results is extraordinary, it’s history in the making, and I think that reflects the fact we are a changed Labour Party, that we are putting a positive case for change to the country - and after 13 years of failure and decline under this Conservative government, I think people are looking for change.”

  14. We're taking the victory humbly - Starmerpublished at 08:39 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Starmer calls the result an "incredible night in politics".

    He says: "It is clear the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government.

    "They've had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change - positive change that the Labour Party can bring them."

    But Labour is taking the victory humbly, he adds.

  15. Starmer: We've made history herepublished at 08:38 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Newly elected Labour MP Alistair Strathern (centre) is congratulated by Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer at the Forest Centre in Moretaine, Bedford after winning the Mid Bedfordshire by-election. Picture date: Friday October 20, 2023. PA Photo. The contest was triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP Nadine DorrieImage source, PA Media

    Now speaking, Sir Keir Starmer says Strathern was "a fantastic candidate".

    "He has not only won here, he's made history here over the past 24 hours. An incredible achievement already."

    "This was such a hard fight, such a big majority, it was a three-way fight" he says.

  16. No one in Mid Beds will ever take Labour for granted again, says new MPpublished at 08:38 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Winning Labour canfdidate Alistair Strathern pays tribute to party activists for helping him take Mid Bedfordshire.

    He says no one in Mid Beds will ever take Labour for granted again. He then introduces leader Sir Keir Starmer to the stage.

  17. Starmer arrives in Mid Bedspublished at 08:33 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Starmer and Strathern

    The Labour leader has arrived in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency - stick with us to hear what he has to say.

  18. Voters who switched from Conservative say change was 'only option'published at 08:32 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Louise Parry
    BBC News Online - East

    Chris Daglish, outside a train station in FlitwickImage source, Louise Parry/BBC
    Image caption,

    "I don’t think they’re [Conservatives] working for the local population," says traditional Tory voter Chris

    As we wait for Keir Starmer to arrive in Mid Beds, I've been speaking to voters here. Chris Daglish, 43, was historically a Conservative voter, that is until yesterday when he switched allegiance to Labour - helping them storm to victory in Mid Bedfordshire.

    "I felt my only option was to vote for Labour, I’ve historically been a Conservative voter but I felt they didn’t warrant to have my vote.

    He tells me the Conservatives have "let us down". He points to the new housing being built, which he says is without the infrastructure to back it up. His example is that he's not been able to get a dentist appointment for over a year and the local post office is shut.

    Alan Williams, 67, is another voter who changed allegiances at this election from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.

    “They [Conservatives] got what they deserved", says the healthcare worker from Shefford. He tells me a big issue for many will have been the "Nadine Dorries situation".

    But come a general election he's undecided on where his vote will go, “let’s see what happens”, he says.

    Alan Wiliams, wearing a blue padded jacket and glasses. He has a white beard and is wearing glasses, standing outside Flitwick Railway Station.Image source, Louise Parry/BBC
  19. Starmer to arrive in Mid Beds shortlypublished at 08:20 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    We're expecting Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to arrive in Mid Bedfordshire in the next two minutes - the first of two victory visits he's making today.

    The result in Mid Bedfordshire breaks the record for the largest numerical majority overturned at a by-election - and Starmer earlier called the two wins phenomenal.

    Stick with us and we'll bring you the latest.

  20. One of worst nights any government has enduredpublished at 08:17 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

    Professor Sir John Curtice
    Polling expert

    The results from Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire represent one of the worst by-election nights that any government has had to endure.

    There are disturbing echoes for the Conservatives in the results of by-elections in the parliament of 1992 to 1997, at the end of which the party crashed to defeat.

    In the last three years of that parliament, there were four by-elections in which there was a swing of more than 20% from Conservative to Labour. Now we have had three in just three months.

    Of course, swings against the government are often an exaggerated reflection of the current national mood. Indeed, the swing in both by-elections was rather less than the 14 or 15 point swing currently being registered by the national polls.

    We certainly cannot presume that the Conservatives would do so badly as they did on Thursday if there were a general election anytime soon.

    However, the fact Labour are now matching what the party achieved in by-elections 30 years ago strongly corroborates the message at the polls: that the Conservatives are in deep electoral trouble.

    True, turnout fell heavily - by around 30 points - in both seats. That led Conservative spokespersons to argue the results were evidence of discontent with the Conservatives, whose supporters thus stayed at home, rather than enthusiasm for Labour. Consequently, they suggest, the party could still turn things around by the time of the next election.

    However, turnout fell just as heavily in those by-elections in the 1992-1997 parliament that recorded high swings to Labour.

    In short, it looks as though Rishi Sunak will have to achieve what John Major proved unable to deliver before 1997 - a dramatic reversal of a public mood that is inclined to turf the Conservatives out of office. He now knows that will not be easy.

    Read more from John