Thomas Mackintosh
Live reporter

A very good morning to you if you are just joining us as we continue our coverage of who will come out on top in the latest round of Westminster parliamentary by-elections.

We will be with you through the night and into the morning with correspondents at both counts in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth in Staffordshire to bring you the results, reaction and analysis.

Click play at the top of this page to watch a special BBC programme hosted by Jo Coburn who is joined by a panel of guests.

The Dorries effect in Mid Bedfordshirepublished at 00:16 British Summer Time 20 October 2023

00:16 BST 20 October 2023

Ben Schofield
Political correspondent, BBC Look East

Image source, EPA

If you’ve spoken to some of the candidates in Mid Beds, chances are they will have tried to emphasise how “local” they are. How long they have lived in the constituency, where their children are schooled, the council they sit on, or where they grew up.

That local flag-waving may have been paired with a claim about how “hardworking” they would be as the area’s MP.

Why? This was the Nadine Dorries effect. An attempt by candidates to offer more than the former MP here is accused of offering.

While Dorries denies some of the more colourful claims about her performance in office, her legacy - or its perception - has cast a long shadow over the campaign.

But there are other issues here as well. A big one: growth and the growing pains that have come along with it. The constituency has seen rapid housebuilding and increased pressure on local services, especially healthcare.

Stories of the difficulty of getting GP appointments abound and candidates and party big wigs made medical centres stops on their campaign trails.

In a constituency where almost 60% of the vote went Conservative in 2019, the question here will be where that vote has gone. Will enough of it come out blue again, will it stay at home, or find a new political home?

Ione Wells
Political correspondent, reporting from Tamworth

Image source, PA Media

Both parties here in Tamworth seem a little muted. Conservatives in the room have played down their chances.

Their reasons? They say they've picked up a lot of general apathy about voting and politicians on the doorstep, arguing people may not bother to turn out if they think there'll be a general election next year anyway and, yes, the weather has played its part.

The Tories are keen to argue if Labour did manage to overturn their huge majority here, for those reasons that does not necessarily mean Keir Starmer's party is on course for a landslide.

Labour are doing a fair bit of expectation management too. Party figures here stress turnout is expected to be fairly low, and where people turn out will be key.

One thing concerning Labour figures on this campaign - aside from the daunting majority they are trying to overturn - is while they've picked up lots of disaffection for the Tories on the doorstep, they say they haven't seen huge amounts of enthusiasm for them instead.

The worry both sides have is that lots of the "don't knows" or unenthused could have chosen to stay at home.

Thomas Mackintosh
Live reporter

Have the Conservatives done enough to hold constituencies which are considered to be rock-solid Tory seats?

Or is there potential for an upset in either Mid Bedfordshire or Tamworth in Staffordshire despite the Conservatives defending big majorities in both?

Stay with us throughout the early hours as we find out how this all unfolds.

And also we have a BBC News by-elections special programme starting in 15 minutes which you can stream by clicking play at the top of this page.

Amy Holmes
BBC Three Counties Radio political reporter

Image source, Neil Hall/EPA-EFE/Rex/Shutterstock

Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine is here at the count in Mid Bedfordshire.

She says her party's candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay has "run a fantastic campaign. She's a great candidate".

She adds that "lifelong Conservative voters have been coming to us in numbers in Mid Beds".

However, independent candidate Gareth Mackey tells me he's "very hopeful of doing OK, but I think anyone who comes here and tells you that they have any idea how they have done is talking absolute balderdash".

Rob Mayor
Political editor, West Midlands, reporting from Tamworth

Labour say they’ve have a good day on the doorstep in Tamworth and believe they’ve got their vote out.

A Conservative source tells me "it felt good" on the doorstep, but as the rain beats down on this sports centre roof, they admit low turnout is a concern.

We don’t have any official figures yet, but there are some fairly empty looking ballot boxes being emptied onto the counting tables.

Ballot papers are now being counted after polls closed at 22:00 in two by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and in Tamworth, Staffordshire.

As we've been reporting, the seats were held by Conservatives Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher - who both quit Parliament.

Here are the latest pictures coming to us from the counts.

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Helen Catt
Political correspondent, reporting from Shefford

Image source, Getty Images

This is very unusual.

Normally, by this point, the parties would have a bit of a feel for their chances but in Mid Beds they say they’re still pretty much in the dark.

One party told me even one of their most experienced number crunchers hasn’t got a handle on this by-election; they say it’s just been too volatile with votes shifting all over the place.

Once the boxes start being opened and the votes verified we may start to have more of an idea.

Let's have a look at what led to these two by-elections and how tonight's results could shape the political mood for the rest of the year.

Sophie Madden
reporting from Tamworth

Boxes are still coming in to the count here at Rawlett School in Tamworth and we have heard the last one might not get here until 23:20.

Amy Holmes
Political reporter, BBC Three Counties

Historically, the Mid Bedfordshire constituency is regarded as a Conservative seat. It was formed in 1918, as part of the Representation of the People Act, external, which also granted the vote to women over the age of 30 and the vote to all men over the age of 21.

Its first MP was Conservative Max Townley but over the next 11 years changed hands between the Tories and the Liberal Party twice.

Since 1931 though, it’s been blue, meaning the party can point to more than 90 years of success. In that time it’s had just five members of Parliament, but hasn’t been without its controversies.

It was held from 1983 to 1997 by Attorney General Nicholas Lyell.

Jonathan Sayeed replaced him, but was forced to retire in 2005 due to ill health, following a row over allegations he had profited from his private educational tours of Parliament and a resulting de-selection attempt by the constituency party.

He was replaced by Nadine Dorries who held onto the seat across another four elections, until her formal resignation in August, doubling her majority in that time.

She had the Conservative whip removed in 2012 for six months after appearing on reality TV show I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, but in the three polls after that, she still picked up more than 50% of the votes and in the last contest in 2019 had a majority of 24,664.

Rob Mayor
Political editor, BBC Midlands Today

The last time there was a by-election in this part of Staffordshire was in 1996, when the seat was called South East Staffordshire and went the way of Labour, predicting the landslide victory for Tony Blair a year later.

The Conservatives have held the seat since the general election in 2010. Some voters in Tamworth may well be glad it’s finally over. For weeks they’ve been bombarded with leaflets and politicians at the door, asking for their support.

Many have told us the cost of living is the number one issue here, whilst others say regardless of party, they just want a more visible MP - Chris Pincher hadn’t spoken in the House of Commons for well over a year.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have thrown the kitchen sink at this race, with visits from Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer among other big names.

People in Tamworth haven’t just had the chance to choose a new MP, but also to steer the narrative about which party is on top as we head towards a general election.

Sophie Madden
reporting from Tamworth, Staffordshire

Here at the Rawlett School in Tamworth the first of the boxes containing votes has arrived.

A reminder - we aren't expecting the result until around 04:00 tomorrow morning.

Image source, PA Media

A flurry of political reaction is coming in, with Pat McFadden, the party's national campaign coordinator, praising both candidates in the Tamworth, Staffordshire, and Mid Bedfordshire seats.

“Our campaigns have focused ruthlessly on the issues that matter to local people: tackling crime, bringing down NHS waiting lists and addressing the cost of living," he says.

"We’ve spoken to thousands of local people who are fed up with this chaotic, distracted Tory Party that does nothing but lurch from crisis to crisis.

“But we have known all along that winning these seats would be a long shot, with huge majorities to overturn. The fact that we are even on the pitch is a sign of how far the Labour Party has changed.

"We are making real progress in all corners of our country and showing that with Labour, we can get Britain’s future back.”

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, PA Media

Commenting on the polls closing in the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, Staffordshire, by-elections, Liberal Democrat Cabinet Office spokesperson Christine Jardine MP gives me her thoughts.

“Whatever the outcome," she tells me. "It is clear that the Lib Dem vote has surged in true blue villages across Bedfordshire, as former lifelong Conservative voters choose to send this government a message.

“I am bursting with pride at the campaign Emma Holland-Lindsay has run, which has offered Mid Bedfordshire a positive and inspiring vision for change.

"Emma has rolled up her sleeves, ran constituency surgeries whilst the absent Conservative MP was nowhere to be found, and already begun the work of helping local people who have felt badly let down.

“Both Emma Holland-Lindsay in Mid Bedfordshire and Sunny Virk in Tamworth have stood up for their communities against this out of touch Conservative government.

"They have done our party and our country’s democracy proud.”

Chris Mason
Political editor

A Conservative Party spokesman tells me: "These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don't win them.

"We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short-term political gain first.

"It is clear that we have to maintain our focus on people’s immediate priorities whilst taking long-term decisions which will lead to the change this country needs.”

It’s the question on all our lips - but it’s not an exact science.

Our thinking is we may get a result around 01:30-02:00 for Mid Bedfordshire and around 03:30-04:00 in the Staffordshire seat of Tamworth.

But that doesn't take into account the possibility of recounts if the results are close.

We’ll be here all night, and from 00:15 you will be able to watch a BBC News special from the counts without leaving this page.

Chris Mason
Political editor

These by-elections are interesting for a simple reason.

They were rock-solid safe Conservative seats, but both of these contests have been super competitive.

To put it another way, the Conservatives could do badly tonight, and still actually win in both places.

The race in Mid Bedfordshire has a couple of extra curiosities thrown in: the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are competitive.

And so safe a Conservative seat has it been that none of the parties have very much data about local voting habits, and folk there are not used to being courted so enthusiastically by a range of parties.

The race in Tamworth in Staffordshire is a traditional scrap between the Conservatives and Labour.

The Tories were even further ahead of everyone else in this part of Staffordshire at the last election than they were in Mid Bedfordshire.

It is a two-way tussle, where the Conservatives had been expecting their share of the vote to collapse.

But are folk who might be fed up with the Tories willing to switch to Labour?

Here goes – it should be a fascinating, if rather long night.

The time is 22:00 BST and the polls have closed in the by-elections which have been held today in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, Staffordshire.

There are less than 15 minutes to go until polls close in the two by-elections we're covering tonight.

Strict rules for broadcasters will be lifted at 22:00 and from 00:15 you will be able to stream the BBC's by-election special programme at the top of this page.

Until then, stay with us as we get ready to bring you all the latest.