Pastries and persuasion: How the day unfolded with an hour to gopublished at 18:03 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

18:03 GMT 12 December 2023

Chris Mason
Political editor

There are many traditions at this time of year. Hospitality is one of them.

The prime minister invited a group of his MPs in for breakfast first thing this morning. Ketchup and cajoling; pastries and persuasion.

Westminster woke to a day of power, contested. Who holds it, who seeks it, where it lies.

Today the government was reminded it sits in the House of Commons; the prime minister at its mercy, the mercy of his own backbenchers.

Pre-dawn bacon rolls and the climate minister flown back from the COP summit in Dubai garnish this evening’s obvious point: ministers have been fretting about losing. This is the biggest, most perilous whipping operation – persuasion job – of Rishi Sunak’s time in Downing Street.

Image source, No 10/ Flickr

The Rwanda plan and Sunak’s authority dangle just north of the shredder, gravity or the last minute grip of discipline the only options.

The government has maintained a cautious optimism it can win. But victory, while defeat avoided, would only be pain postponed when the bill returns in the new year.

Cancelling or losing the vote are both doom-laden for the prime minister’s political share price – but, while sparking a frenzy of speculation about his future, wouldn’t guarantee any next step – beyond the final annihilation of the Rwanda scheme.

Dominic Casciani
Home and legal correspondent

The head of the UK’s public spending watchdog has said he has seen no evidence to date that the Rwanda scheme is good value for money.

Gareth Davies, the chief of the National Audit Office, has announced his teams will investigate how much the Home Office is spending now and into future years.

His decision is a significant intervention in an ongoing row between MPs and the department over the true costs of the Rwanda plan.

On Monday, MPs on the Public Accounts Committee – which scrutinises whether government is spending money wisely – clashed with the Home Office’s top official over how much it was spending.

So far, £290m has either been handed over to Rwanda, or will be soon, but the Home Office Permanent Secretary Sir Matthew Rycroft refused to say how much more would be spent, saying the detail was commercial confidential.

This afternoon the National Audit Office said it would now investigate and report its findings back to Parliament.

“I do not think it possible to conclude on value for money at this stage, given that this rests on the deterrent effect of the scheme,” Davies told MPs in a letter.

Dame Diana Johnson and Dame Meg Hillier, the chairs of the Home Affairs Public Accounts Committee respectively, said in a joint statement that they welcomed the NAO’s intervention because Parliament needed to know the true costs.

The NAO report is expected to be “factual”, meaning it won’t judge whether the cash has been wasted.

Iain Watson
Political correspondent

The various Tory tribes on the party's right have assembled ahead of the key vote to discuss tactics.

The attendance spans generations - from John Redwood (who challenged John Major for the leadership in the 90s) to some of the more recent intake, such as Jonathan Gullis and Miriam Cates.

The former Home Secretary Suella Braverman is in attendance too but frankly there are almost as many journalists outside the meeting room as there are politicians inside.

If Downing Street indicates that it won't make substantial changes to the legislation, the former immigration minister Robert Jenrick has suggested he'd be prepared to vote against - rather than abstain on - the bill.

The question is how many of the attendees will follow suit.

As we've been hearing, Robert Jenrick, who resigned as immigration minister last week, has been addressing MPs during the debate on the Rwanda legislation.

The test of the policy will be "will it work", he said.

Parliament will vote on the bill this evening, and you can watch Jenrick's comments in the Commons below:

Sammy Wilson, an MP for the Democratic Unionist Party, says "we cannot support" the Rwanda bill.

"The bill is fatally flawed and will not achieve the objective it has been drafted to resolve," he writes on X, formerly Twitter.

"There is a real danger that Northern Ireland will become a gateway for illegal immigration if this bill were to become law."

The DUP has eight MPs in Westminster and a track record of supporting Conservative governments in exchange for concessions for its constituents.

Neither the party, nor its leader Jeffrey Donaldson, has said whether it will be abstaining or voting against the bill later.

Vicki Young
Deputy political editor

Image source, EPA

It's getting much busier in Parliament as different groups start to gather ahead of the votes.

Santa and the elves have also made an appearance although I’m told this is for a kids' Christmas party, not a delegation to the PM.

The Chief Whip is holding meetings with individual rebels hoping to persuade them to back the bill.

I’ve seen cabinet ministers stalking the corridors looking for any MPs who need convincing.

The main concern on government side seems to be abstentions. If they climb too high the bill gets defeated almost by accident.

Sam Francis
Political reporter

It's just over two hours to go until Rishi Sunak faces one of the most important votes of his premiership. So how could this evening play out?

1. The bill passes at second reading Sunak's best-case scenario involves his charm offensive working and the bill passing. The battle is won but war is not over. In January, when MPs return, opposition MPs alongside the warring factions within the Tory party will try to amend the bill and bend it to their preferred outcome. The proposals will also have to pass through the House of Lords, where the government do not have a majority meaning the bill's passage is even less secure.
2. The government prevents a vote Sunak's allies say this option is off the table. But if Downing Street see they don’t have the numbers to win the vote, the whips' office could choose to pull the vote. This is a short-term solution as the bill would need to be voted through to ever become law.
3. A Tory rebellion brings down the bill If enough Tory rebels abstain or vote with Labour the bill in its current form is dead. Parliamentary rules, external mean Sunak can’t ask MPs to consider the same bill twice in the same session. Sunak may want to fillet out some of the key proposals and ask MPs to pass them individually, but with an election expected next year time is against him.

Rwanda rejects Starmer's '100 asylum sekeers' claimpublished at 16:31 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

16:31 GMT 12 December 2023

While we're talking about Labour, let's look back at some comments from party leader Sir Keir Starmer earlier.

He told the BBC’s Today programme: “The Court of Appeal earlier this year was very clear: there’s only room for 100 people on this Rwanda scheme.”

He was talking about a judgement made by the court in June 2023, on the legality of the government’s plans.

Based on evidence provided by the Rwandan government, the judgement says, external: “Those removed will arrive at Kigali and be accommodated at the Hope Hostel… that has a capacity of 100.”

However, it adds that there are “plans for further sites to be identified”.

The Rwandan government told us: “The partnership is uncapped and we’re prepared to receive numbers in the thousands.’’ The Home Office also confirmed that the scheme is uncapped.

The UK-Rwanda treaty signed on 5 December 2023, external doesn’t give details on specific accommodation, but it says it would be “adequate to ensure the health, security and wellbeing of the Relocated Individual”.

Ione Wells
Political correspondent

In the Commons, some rare praise for the government from a Labour MP - Clive Efford.

He points out that small boat crossings are down 30%.

And that some schemes - like a returns agreement with Albania - have worked.

But he criticises the government for its "incompetence" in dealing with asylum claims and criminal gangs orchestrating small boat crossings.

The problem for the government is their plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda - which currently hasn't yet worked - has had far more airtime than the plans that have started to make an impact.

There are some Conservatives who are frustrated that their own party aren't devoting more energy to shouting about those things.

Ione Wells
Political correspondent

Image source, PA Media

Miriam Cates MP, the co-chair of the New Conservatives, has joined Danny Kruger in saying she can't back this bill.

Writing in an article for the Telegraph newspaper, external, the MPs say - on the fourth anniversary of the 2019 election - that the inability to tackle small boats shows that "we have yet to take back control of our borders".

They also argue the bill fails to make the UK sovereign over immigration policy or block off the right to individuals' appealing being sent to Rwanda.

A potential olive branch though? They say if the government comes forward with amendments to the bill they could.

But in the meantime they won't be voting for it.

Ione Wells
Political correspondent

Oof. That's not what Downing Street want to hear. Danny Kruger - the co-chair of the New Conservatives group of Tory MPs who had breakfast with Rishi Sunak this morning - just said he can't support the bill.

Now, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily vote against it. He could abstain.

But if enough do the same, that could still spell trouble for Rishi Sunak.

It suggests the charm offensive - bacon baps or otherwise - didn't work this morning.

Unless Downing Street agrees to accept changes to it in the meantime...

Ione Wells
Political correspondent

We've just heard from David Jones MP, a former solicitor who is the deputy chairman of the European Research Group of Tory MPs.

He's reiterating that group's concern that the bill doesn't put restrictions on legal challenges, and that it may - in their view - not be "sufficiently watertight".

He's clear he and others feel strongly that it needs to be amended.

It's not yet clear though if - and how - the government might consider amending the bill.

The government is also in a bind. If it amends it as this group of Tory MPs want it to - ministers risk turning other groups of Tory MPs against it.

Like a different Tory MP lawyer, Sir Robert Buckland, who we heard from below.

The key question is whether Tory MPs like David Jones will back it for now, and try change it later down the line, or vote it down or abstain now.

While James Cleverly was defending the Rwanda bill in the Commons, shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper told MPs that the debate was less about fixing the "broken asylum system" and more about "total Tory chaos."

She said millions of taxpayers' money had been spent, without a single person being sent to Rwanda.

As we've been reporting, Home Secretary James Cleverly has been defending the Rwanda legislation during this afternoon's debate in the Commons.

Rishi Sunak is trying to persuade Tory MPs to support the bill, ahead of a key vote in Parliament this evening.

You can watch the home secretary outline his support for what he calls an "innovative and humane solution" to illegal migration below:

We've been hearing politicians discussing the Rwanda plan all day, but what do members of the public think?

Our colleagues at BBC Radio 5Live have been taking calls on the policy - here's a flavour of what listeners have to say:

For Devon from London, the frustration is MPs don't appear to be working together to prevent small boats. She asks how many people will die at sea or "get in illegally" if the situation isn't resolved:

Claire in Bedford believes many arriving on small boats are "fleeing horrific conditions that many in the UK have never experienced", asking how people escaping persecution, war or famine can seek asylum legally here:

While Tony from Billericay says that while the Rwanda scheme may not be the "best idea", he thinks it is a good one and will act as a deterrent to "stop immigrants coming over":

Ione Wells
Political correspondent

The former Conservative Justice Secretary Sir Robert Buckland has raised a concern that a number of MPs have raised privately too.

Namely, that if the government starts telling domestic courts what it can or can't do - what precedent would this set for the future, if one day there was a leader or government in charge who the (now) governing party didn't agree with?

That's a concern a number of the more centre-right Tory MPs have.

Even some who in theory support the Rwanda plan aren't happy with the precedent.

Dominic Casciani
Home and legal correspondent

Parliament’s Joint Committee on Human Rights - made up of MPs and peers from all sides - has now warned that the Rwanda Bill breaches international law and could create an unprecedented constitutional clash between ministers and the British courts.

This is an important intervention from the committee chaired by Labour veteran Harriett Harman because its role is to advise MPs on how legislation could interfere with basic rights and the legal checks that prevent ministers abusing power.

The highly critical preliminary report, external says Rishi Sunak’s proposal to order courts to treat Rwanda as safe, even though the Supreme Court says it is not, “is a remarkable thing for a piece of legislation to do”.

It accepts that Parliament has the right to make the claim but then adds: “[It is] the role of the courts to assess evidence and come to a conclusion upon it.

“More fundamentally, effectively reversing by statute a Supreme Court judgement... undermines the constitutional role of the judiciary, arguably jeopardising both the separation of powers and the rule of law.”

Why does this matter?

Well all modern well-functioning democracies have independent courts capable of holding government to account on the most difficult matters of the day.

Secondly, the One Nation Conservative MPs have seemingly accepted assurances the that the package is lawful.

Some of their own colleagues in this expert committee are now saying otherwise.

Image source, UK Parliament

Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick has just spoken in the debate, less than a week after resigning from his role and heavily criticising Rishi Sunak's Rwanda bill.

Speaking in the Commons, he said the issue of immigration was not going away and the number of people coming to the UK is "not sustainable".

Jenrick said the government has to introduce the "strongest possible deterrent" for people getting on to small boats.

He goes on to say there are "big flaws with this bill", including it failing to stop claimants being able to challenge their removal from the UK in court on an individual basis - like on the grounds of being a victim of modern slavery.

However, he does not indicate either way whether he will abstain or vote against the bill later. He has already said he won't be supporting it.

• Rishi Sunak is attempting to stamp out a Tory rebellion over his flagship Rwanda bill, which MPs are due to vote on at 19:00 GMT
• The PM hosted a breakfast meeting in No 10 this morning with 15 MPs from Conservative right

• Our political editor Chris Mason was told that, during this meeting, the co-chairman of New Conservatives group gave Sunak given three options on the legislation
• Our correspondent Henry Zeffman said Sunak told MPs he was open to "tightening up" the bill
• And the prime minister has more meetings to come, including with the One Nation group (to the left of the parliamentary party)

• Labour leader Keir Starmer has predicted the bill will pass tonight amid "shouting and screaming"
• And, in a sign that every vote counts, energy security and net zero minister Graham Stuart has left COP28 in Dubai so he can fly back to London and take part
• We also know at least two Conservatives had a trip to the Caribbean cancelled - talk about bad timing...

Yvette Cooper said in her speech that - since the Rwanda policy was announced in 2022 - more home secretaries have been sent to Rwanda than asylum seekers.

With no asylum seekers sent there so far, she is right.

Image source, Reuters

Image source, PA Media

Image source, Reuters