Insaf Abbas
BBC News

Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick has just left his home in Westminster, heading towards Parliament ahead of the Rwanda bill debate due to begin around 12:30.

He refused to say why he was voting against the government - or whether he was trying to cause trouble for the prime minister - when asked by the BBC.

But in an interview with the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme this week, Jenrick accused Rishi Sunak of making a "political choice" to bring back the scheme in a way that was unlikely to work.

He added that he resigned from his post on 6 December because he couldn't ask MPs to vote for a legislation that he deemed "weak".

It's going to be a long day of political wrangling in Westminster, as Rishi Sunak attempts to get his new Rwanda bill through its first vote in Parliament.

The prime minister is currently chairing a cabinet meeting, which started at around 09:30 GMT. Here's a rough guide to the political timings for the rest of the day:

• Now: Labour Leader Keir Starmer is giving a speech in Milton Keynes
• 11:30 - The usual briefing of political journalists by a spokesperson for Sunak will be held
• 12:30 - MPs will begin to debate the Rwanda bill in the House of Commons
• 14:00 - Foreign Secretary David Cameron will give evidence in front of the Commons European scrutiny committee
• 19:00 - Vote due to be held on the Rwanda bill

All the above timings could change, given the shifting nature of Parliament's schedule and the febrile atmosphere among Conservative MPs over this bill.

The government's plan to send people seeking UK asylum to Rwanda has been one of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's main priorities.

But what is the Rwanda vote? Why is this happening now? What happens if it's defeated?

The BBC's analysis editor Ros Atkins answers these key questions below:

Sam Francis
Political reporter

Numbers are hard to pin down but around 100 Conservative MPs have indicated they are at least considering rebelling on the Rwanda Bill. On the face of it, this is more than enough to sink Rishi Sunak’s flagship policy.

Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against, or 57 abstain — or various combinations of both — for the bill to fall.

But under the surface, the parliamentary calculus is a little more complicated.

There is no guarantee all non-Conservative MPs will oppose the bill. The three largest opposition parties – Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems – have all said they will vote against the bill.

But there are 18 independent MPs including some likely to support the bill, some expected to oppose it and some who generally do not vote.

The eight DUP MPs could also play a key role. The group have a track record of siding with Conservative governments in exchange for concessions for their Northern Ireland constituents – like the 2017 deal with Theresa May.

If Sunak does lose the vote the bill is dead. He can’t ask parliament to consider the same bill twice in the same session, and with an election expected next year Sunak is out of time.

Hannah Miller
Political correspondent

After breakfast with the prime minister the potential rebels are yet to deliver their verdict.

One of those invited to Downing Street, Jonathan Gullis, told Talk TV he’s yet to make a decision on how he will vote and wants to get more advice on "legal technicalities".

Downing Street is clearly on the offensive, trying to convince MPs the bill is legally watertight and offers the best chance of getting planes off the ground.

But, with the law always open to interpretation, there will be many conversations happening behind closed doors today.

Image source, Reuters

We've been talking about the New Conservatives group of Tory MPs a lot this morning, and we're expecting to hear their stance on Rishi Sunak's Rwanda bill shortly. But who are they?

The group was formed in May 2023, and has fast become one of the most vocal factions in the Tory party. Its members focus on radical migration measures and generally align with the findings of the European Research Group.

Around 30 MPs are members of the New Conservatives, including deputy Tory chairman Lee Anderson. Most of them were elected in 2019, many in marginal, traditionally Labour, "red wall" seats in the north of England and the Midlands.

• MPs will get their first chance to vote on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's updated Rwanda bill this evening
• The new law was introduced after the previous plan was blocked by the UK Supreme Court last month
• Under the plan, the UK would send some asylum seekers on a one-way ticket to Rwanda - but the judges said there was a risk that they could be sent on to dangerous places
• The new Rwanda bill - and a new treaty with the east African country - aims to guarantee asylum seekers' safety, but nearly all opposition parties are likely to vote against
• This means Sunak will need nearly all Tory MPs to vote in favour, but significant division exists in both the right and the left of the Conservative Party
• Sunak held a breakfast meeting with around 15 MPs from the right earlier, who say the new law does not go far enough
• But MPs from the larger One Nation grouping, generally seen as being more on the left, say it breaches the UK's international law obligations
• We've also heard from Labour's Keir Starmer, who criticised the policy as an "expensive gimmick"
• He told the BBC the money would be better spent on improving efforts to "smash criminal gangs" taking people across the English Channel
• New illegal migration minister Michael Tomlinson confirmed on BBC Breakfast tonight's vote will go ahead - adding that he and Sunak will be working to persuade fellow Tory MPs

MPs go for post-meeting meeting after breakfast with Sunakpublished at 09:37 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

09:37 GMT 12 December 2023

Chris Mason
Political editor

Honesty time: Westminster goes a bit crazy on days like this.

College Green, the patch of grass just over the road from parliament, was just a hive of journalistic activity.

Cameras and reporters, a clump of microphones and a sense of anticipation.

We were waiting for some of the MPs who had been to Downing Street for breakfast to come to talk to us.

But, their news conference isn’t happening.

Instead they’ve gone for a "post-meeting meeting" as it was put to me. So they’re working out what to say.

Image source, Getty Images

We're hearing that the breakfast meeting Rishi Sunak had with those 15 or so Tory MPs earlier featured a menu of smoked salmon and pastries.

Will that be enough to convince them to vote in favour of the PM's bill tonight? We're expecting to hear from the New Conservatives group shortly, and will bring you their verdict.

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Image source, PA Media

Home Secretary James Cleverly, who has to try to find a way to get this legislation through, went into No 10 Downing Street a short while ago.

About 10 minutes before he went in, the 15 or so Conservatives MPs who had breakfast with Rishi Sunak, left in a sort of solemn procession - single file one-by-one.

We're expecting to hear from them this morning about whether the prime minister has won them round. If he hasn't, it really is a serious problem for Sunak.

It's not at all certain he will lose this vote tonight, if he did that would be extraordinary.

Even if Sunak wins with a large minority of the Conservative right angry with him about this legislation, that would spell trouble for him after Christmas and deep into next year.

In case you missed it earlier, Sir Keir Starmer appeared on BBC Breakfast and dismissed the Rwanda plan as a "gimmick" and piece of political "performance art".

The Labour leader said his party would use the money "being wasted on the Rwanda scheme" to step up cross-border policing to tackle human trafficking gangs.

Speaking ahead of a speech in Milton Keynes today, Starmer vowed his party would also speed up asylum claim processing, with those refused permission to stay sent back to their country of origin.

Every vote counts as MPs cancel Caribbean trippublished at 09:01 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

09:01 GMT 12 December 2023

Harry Farley
Reporting from Westminster

The arm twisting, the cajoling, the promises and the threats are fully under way to try and get Conservative MPs to back the government’s bill.

I’ve spoken to two MPs on the International Development Committee who had been due to travel to the Caribbean this week.

The committee was supposed to be making an official visit to Barbados and Dominica to explore development and the effects of climate change on the islands.

But, at the last moment yesterday the visit was cancelled. I’m told some MPs were already on their way to the airport when they were summoned back to Westminster.

The government is worried today’s vote could be very tight. So they cancelled the trip to make sure as many MPs as possible are there tonight.

The government is trying to get its MPs to vote for its new Rwanda bill. But what is the legislation?

The policy was first announced in April 2022, aiming to deter people from crossing the Channel in small boats by sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Last month, the Supreme Court ruled that the plans were unlawful and there had not been a proper assessment of whether Rwanda was a safe country for asylum seekers.

The new bill, the government says, addresses the court's concerns about the legality of it and makes clear in UK law that Rwanda is a safe country for asylum seekers.

Asylum seekers would still be able challenge their removal to Rwanda based on their personal circumstances.

But the bill would allow ministers to ignore emergency orders from the European Court of Human Rights to suspend a flight to Rwanda while an individual legal case was still being heard.

We've got an explainer here with more details.

Keir Starmer has just been speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, where he has confirmed he would repeal the Rwanda bill if it becomes law and Labour win the next election.

He describes the policy as a "very expensive gimmick" and says he would rather use the money to "put more resource into a police unit that could work across borders" to prevent small boat arrivals in the first place.

Starmer says instead of flying around 100 people to Rwanda to claim asylum, where the UK would also be paying their upkeep, the government should spend £290m on better enforcement and bolstering security agreements with other countries to "break the gangs" bringing people to the UK.

"We have done this with terrorist gangs, I do not accept the proposition that this is too difficult. The boats currently being used are bigger than they're used to be.

"They're being made effectively to order, they're being stored in warehouses and then brought to the coast."

He adds that "this is not rocket science" and the government can do something about it "if we focus on practical solutions".

Persuasion over a cuppa for Tory MPs ahead of Rwanda debatepublished at 08:29 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

08:29 GMT 12 December 2023

Chris Mason
Political editor

I am typing this in the Today Programme studio in Westminster - and here’s how the day looks:

Around 15 Conservative MPs are currently in Downing Street having breakfast with the prime minister and the chief whip – persuasion over a cuppa.

Once they have had their Shredded Wheat, we are expecting to hear from some of those MPs.

The debate gets underway in the House of Commons at lunchtime. Home Secretary James Cleverly is expected to open it for the government.

There will then be debate throughout the afternoon, concluding with a last-minute pitch – beg – by the new Illegal Immigration Minister Michael Tomlinson.

As things stand the vote is expected early this evening.

Image source, PA Media

Image source, PA Media

One potential Tory rebel is former minister Sir Simon Clarke and he has been telling the BBC this morning he is yet to make up his mind as to whether to back Rishi Sunak's policy.

"It depends on the talks we will have with the government today," Sir Simon tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme as he adds his concerns about judicial risks over the bill and potential clashes with the European Court of Human Rights.

"We all want the government to succeed on stopping the boats and we want this legislation to be the tool for stopping that.

"We believe the best solution here is the government should pause this legislation today, we should come back with a new bill which would obviously need to be different in scope and affect to pass parliamentary rules but that could be drawn up.

"It could include safeguards to this affect, but it would need to do so purely as a reference to statute.

"This boils down to the supremacy of the British parliament and that is critically important. As we have seen, if you leave the door open to the Strasbourg case law in particular then this bill will be frustrated."

Sunak's flagship legislation is in perilpublished at 08:04 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

08:04 GMT 12 December 2023

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Image source, PA Media

Wandering around Westminster yesterday I couldn’t move for people proclaiming it feels like the Brexit years again - when Theresa May went through chaotic efforts to get her Brexit deal through.

They’re right. It's mostly the same characters.

When Mark Francois, the chairman of the European Research Group (ERG), emerged from Parliament yesterday to tell the prime minister he should withdraw his bill, I felt almost nostalgic.

I’m sure Rishi Sunak has other words for it.

Because make no mistake, his flagship Rwanda legislation is in peril. And the fact we are even saying that is extraordinary.

No government has lost a vote at this stage of the legislative process since 1986.

There are two key questions today - how many MPs will rebel and in what way will they rebel?

The breakfast meeting this morning is a critical attempt for Rishi Sunak to win over the number of potential rebels. He will argue that this is the only way to get the Rwanda policy off the ground.

But, if Sunak cannot win them round he will hope that rather than voting against the government tonight they decide to abstain, making it much less likely the government loses.

Suppose the government wins, though, and the same problems return early in the New Year at the next stage of the legislative process, and then in the House of Lords, and then in the House of Commons for more votes.

The same arguments litigated by the same people over and over again: yes, this really does feel like the Brexit years.

And they did not end well for Theresa May.

Image source, PA Media

Several Conservative MPs have arrived at 10 Downing Street ahead of a meeting with Rishi Sunak.

A group of them walked in together just before 07:30, including Tory Party deputy chairman Lee Anderson.

Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger, co-founders of the New Conservatives group, entered Downing Street a little while after for Rishi Sunak's breakfast meeting.

The MPs, prominent members on the right of the Conservative Party, did not reply when asked by reporters how they intend to vote.

Tomlinson is asked if anyone who votes against the bill will lose the whip, given how central the policy is to Rishi Sunak's priorities as prime minister.

He says he doesn't agree with that, noting the bill is responding to the UK Supreme Court's judgement on the bill and it's his job to persuade his colleagues to vote with the government.

"The government disagreed (with the Supreme Court), and it's tabled this legislation and that's a debate we're going to have this afternoon."

Tomlinson is asked if the Rwanda legislation squeaks over the line, will the government accept it is not a great look for Rishi Sunak.

"What happens if there is a narrow win, then the bill goes through the committee stage and we go through it line by line," Tomlinson responds on BBC Breakfast.

"Governing is hard, to govern is to choose and the prime minister has chosen this as a priority to stop the boats.

"We have seen people die taking these crossings. What I haven't heard enough of is that moral case of stopping the boats."