House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer is now making a point of order on the release of the Attorney General’s legal advice to the cabinet, and calls for a statement to be delivered in the Chamber on the matter.

The motion (which was introduced by Labour in a debate) was passed unopposed by the government, he says, and he is "concerned the government do not intend to comply in full and produce the legal documents".

"This was just not an expression of the House, it was an opinion of the House," he adds.

He asks if the Attorney General will come to the house to deliver information about the legal advice on Brexit to MPs so they can be well informed when they vote on 11 December.

The Speaker John Bercow says the shadow Brexit secretary can write to him if he believes the humble address has not been complied with, and it will be for him to decide whether there has been an arguable case that a contempt has been committed.

"I will not linger," the Speaker says.

Image source, HoC

Labour MP Chris Bryant says the economic analysis shows everyone will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios, and that "the poorest in the UK, my constituents, will be the most affected."

He calls for a so-called 'People's Vote' so the people, having this information, can have another say.

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says this is the sixth or seventh time he has fielded questions about a second referendum in the last hour.

Mr Stride says "it would be a betrayal of the will of the British people to go out and say we didn't like the answer you gave the first time, so how about a different answer this time."

House of Commons
Parliament

Lib Dem Brexit spokesman Tom Brake says people are already "scaling back" on medicine doses and stockpiling medicines out of fear of the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

He calls on the government to rule out no deal and give the assurances that people need.

Mel Stride says it's Parliament that decides whether the deal proceeds.

No deal is deeply unattractive, he says.

"We want a deal, we want this deal".

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, DUP

DUP MP Sammy Wilson says economic forecasts have a poor previous history.

"According to economic predictions after the referendum, we should be near a recession," he says.

"This is not worth the paper it is written on, and is certainly not the basis for which we should vote for a damaging deal."

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says the government has carried out "necessary analysis" and will continue to monitor economic analysis alongside the Treasury Committee.

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Conservative MP Peter Bone says he "spluttered over my cornflakes" when he saw the chancellor speaking to the media this morning about something that hadn't first been announced to MPs.

It would have been proper for the chancellor to have made a statement to MPs, he says, not left it to a minister "being dragged" to the Commons by an urgent question.

The forecasts before the referendum didn't match up with reality after, he says, asking why should anyone believe a government forecast for years and years in advance.

Isn't it "just another project fear?" he asks.

Mel Stride says it's not a forecast, it's an impact assessment.

Mark D'Arcy
Parliamentary Correspondent

Image source, hoc

After the PM endured another 45 minutes at the dispatch box, dodging the Brexit crossfire from the opposition and her own party’s various factions, what have we learned?

Theresa May stuck by her line that the government would not release the full text of its legal advice on the Brexit deal – no surprise, really, and it would have been a bit of a surrender and a dangerous precedent, had she agreed.

Instead she said the government’s top lawyer, the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox, could make a statement to MPs, and answer questions.

Did the answer to Labour’s Dame Louise Ellman signal some subtle softening on the issue of a second referendum?

The PM has rebuffed endless requests for a so-called “People’s Vote” over the last few weeks, usually observing that there has already been a referendum, and often adding that the main parties at the last election promised to respect the result.

This time the prime minister did say that it was important to deliver on the decision of the people, but also added that there would not be time to hold a further referendum before Brexit Day – 29 March – as the Article 50 period (the period before the UK left, having given notice of intent to withdraw) would have to be extended.

Random variation of phrase, or a soft signal of some kind? Hmmm.

Jeremy Corbyn enjoyed himself in a target-rich environment, noting that Theresa May once demanded that Tony Blair published his advice on the legality of the Iraq War, and highlighting the opposition to her Brexit deal among her own MPs.

But the real threat to the PM was behind her, on the Conservative benches. Brexiteers Anne Marie Trevelyan, Peter Bone and David Amess all attacked aspects of the deal, and received polite rebuffs.

And the Scottish Conservative Douglas Ross raised the dangers of a fisheries deal which did not meet promises to the fishing industry.

The PM sailed through it all… this was much of a muchness with the questioning in the series of Brexit statements over the last fortnight. And perhaps the sense of déjà vu drained some of the hostility from this latest repeat performance.

Hard Brexiteers to the right of her, Remainers to the left, Labour with its cannons trained on her, and leadership rivals lurking under camouflage, the PM seems to be heading for certain defeat in the Meaningful Vote in a fortnight.

Yet on she goes.

Westminster is, frankly, a bit baffled.

Does she have some masterstroke to deploy? Has she banked the prospect of defeat and based her strategy on a second vote to get through a slightly tweaked deal – with modest concessions from Brussels already prepared and waiting?

Or is she simply hoping against hope that her opponents, internal or external, will somehow retreat at the last moment.

Is it magnificent? Is it politics?

We’ll know in a fortnight.

Remember, Theresa May will be at the dispatch box for PMQs the morning after the Meaningful Vote. Maybe all will be revealed.

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Labour MP Rachel Reeves says however MPs vote, "the people expect us to put our national interest first, and this deal clearly doesn't."

She says MPs are now in a situation where the chancellor and the prime minister are expecting them to vote on a deal "when they know and we all know will mean our economy grows more slowly, something which nobody voted for in 2016".

Ms Reeves asks if Mr Stride understands why so few MPs will be voting for this deal in 13 days time.

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says: "We have secured a deal which safeguards our economy, jobs, the economic future of all our constituents but also delivers on crucial other free areas such as ending free movement and not sending vast amounts of money to the EU."

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, Labour MP Meg Hillier, says the government has rushed into Article 50 without a clear plan for Brexit.

She asks whether there will be any information available that will "properly" allow MPs to make an informed decision in the meaningful vote, without being "blindsided".

Mel Stride says this is the purpose of the information being discussed. It's incumbent upon all MPs to now go away and digest that information at great detail, he says.

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Tory MP Anna Soubry says she tabled an amendment to the Finance Bill which called for "precise economic analysis based on models but to also include the government's political declaration".

Ms Soubry says an assurance was made by Treasury ministers that this would be provided, and therefore the amendment was not pushed to a vote.

"If it had been voted on, it would have passed," she says.

She adds that "the assurance was that the analysis would include a WTO scenario, an FTA scenario and a modelled analysis of the government's proposed deal."

She asks why this "solemn promise has been broken".

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says "I don't believe any promises have been broken here - this is an analysis of the deal and a spectrum of possible outcomes."

An official forecast finds that the most likely forms of Brexit will mean a big hit to the economy.

Image source, Getty Images

Commenting on the Government's economic analysis of the EU withdrawal deal on the UK, the CBI's chief economist Rain Newton-Smith, says: "These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no-deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal.

"It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy."

She adds: "This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it’s clear to business that while the Government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future."

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg - who chairs the ERG group of Brexiteer Tory MPs - says the minister will recall the "wild inaccuracy" of the economic forecasts published before Brexit.

He says global trends have not been modelled and ignore that growth is expected from outside the European Union, so the analysis is "therefore worthless".

Mel Strides says "this is not a Treasury report as such", as the report outlines discussion across government. Future trade deals are included, he says, with assumptions made about trade deals with the US, China and India.

House of Commons
Parliament

Speaker John Bercow defends the order in which he selects MPs to ask questions, something he has previously been criticised for.

(When she got up, Nicky Morgan pointed out that she was called after two male MPs, neither of whom were on the Treasury Committee.)

Mr Bercow points out that it was not always the case that every MP got to speak in response to urgent questions, "that didn't used to happen. It almost always happens with me."

If people were patient, rather than thinking they deserve to speak before others, everyone would be able to get in, he says.

"The chair decides who to call and when, and I will always ensure that everybody gets an opportunity.

"I'm doing my best and I always will."

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, HoC

Chair of the Treasury Committee Nicky Morgan says "this economic analysis has been published at the behest of the Treasury select committee."

Ms Morgan says she was "very clear" in a letter she wrote to the chancellor on 27 June which said that the economic analysis should consider the long term economic and fiscal impact of implementing the withdrawal agreement and the terms of the future framework.

"It is clear that is not what has been published today," she says, noting that "if it is impossible to analyse the withdrawal agreement and terms of the future framework, that should be explained to this House."

She urges MPs to read the full withdrawal agreement and political declaration documents, to read thoroughly the analysis from the Bank of England due at 4.30pm this afternoon, to take note of the Treasury select committee's hearing next week "and to then make our decisions on how we vote on the 11 December".

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says Nicky Morgan is "entirely right" about the importance of all members reviewing all the documents and analysis before the so-called meaningful vote on 11 December.

"People must not make the mistake of dismissing our deal without even having read a word of it," he adds.

House of Commons
Parliament

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable says Brexit will leave the country substantially poorer, with no Brexit dividend.

He adds that "relatively optimistic" forecasts are based on a smooth exit, whilst the reality is potentially a great deal worse.

Mel Stride says there is currently economic uncertainty, and that's why agreeing a deal and getting it to stick will be a huge shot in the arm for the UK economy.

House of Commons
Parliament

Tory MP and former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the Treasury, the OBR and the Bank of England produce many economic forecasts every year "but when was the last time any of them got one right?"

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says "in the history of highly detailed economic forecasts that deal with many variables, there is probably not one that has been entirely correct, but it is sensible to conduct analysis."

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, hoc

SNP spokesperson Kirsty Blackman says her party have always said Brexit would damage the economy, but they have compromised by saying that remaining in the single market is the best option.

The Brexit deal will leave Scottish people worse off, with the economy weaker and public sector net borrowing higher, she says.

"In what alternative reality is that a good deal?" she asks.

Mel Stride says the SNP is arguing to remain in the EU, which would not respect the will of the British people. Few things would have a worse impact than Scotland becoming independent, he adds.

House of Commons
Parliament

Image source, hoc

Labour MP Hilary Benn, who announces he is celebrating his birthday today, says the government "is unable to analyse the political declaration because no one has the faintest idea what economic relationship with result from it".

He questions the purpose of modelling the economic analysis on the Chequers plan which "has already explicitly been rejected by the European Union".

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride says "the political declaration does not specify a specific outcome as that is to be negotiated as we go forwards, however the analysis provides a sensitivity of analysis around the Chequers agreement to reflect that there are a spectrum of scenarios."