Summary

  • FOR LIVE COVERAGE SCROLL DOWN

  • The Finance Committee took evidence on the Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill and on the Scottish Rate of Income Tax

  • This week's portfolio questions focused on finance and the economy

  • Scottish Labour then led a debate entitled Supporting Scotland's Children looking at restoring tax credits cuts

  • The future of the troubled Scottish steel industry was the topic of this evening's member's debate

  1. 'Forecasting is as much an art as a science'published at 11:18

    Ronald MacDonald from the University of Glasgow says forecasting is as much an art as a science.

    Prof Ronald MacDonald

    He says we cannot write results, create a model and get some figures out.

    Professor MacDonald says no duplication is required and either the Scottish government or fiscal commission can lead the model.  

  2. Nobody can predict 'black swan events'published at 11:19

     Dr Jim Cuthbert says there are "black swan events that no-one can predict". 

     Black swan events are negative economic instances that hit rarely with a large impact and are unforseen. 

    Black swanImage source, bbc

    Dr Cuthbert says in the end it does not matter who makes the forecasts.  

  3. SFC could copy OBR model, working closely with government officials - Dr Cuthbertpublished at 11:14 Greenwich Mean Time 4 November 2015

    SNP MSP John Mason says if the SFC is to do its own forecasting it will need much more resource.

    SNP MSP, John Mason

    Dr Cuthbert says the set up should be like the OBR, with many Treasury officials working towards its forecasts. 

    He says the OBR cannot be said to be truly independent of the Treasury, but a similar model could be followed in Scotland. 

  4. Perception of independence of SFC important - Audit Scotlandpublished at 11:12

    Mark Taylor from Audit Scotland says the perception of the independence of the SFC is as important as the independence and the Scottish Parliament should have a say in the appointments to the commission.  

  5. Remit should be broad and resourced appropriatelypublished at 11:09

    Dr Jim Cuthbert says the remit of the commission should be broad and resourced appropriately.

    Dr Jim Cuthbert

      Dr Cuthbert says it should provide forecasts over a long period of time.  

  6. SFC should be making its own forecasts - Prof. Macdonaldpublished at 11:09

    Scottish Conservative MSP Gavin Brown asks about whether the SFC should do its own forecasting as there is nothing in the Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill about forecasting. 

    Scottish Conservative MSP Gavin Brown

    Prof. Macdonald says there should be something about forecasting in the bill. 

    The professor says there are data limitations in Scotland so any forecasting model is going to be relatively small. 

    If the Scottish government is already forecasting, if the SFC did start forecasting it might be very similar says the academic. 

    Prof. Macdonald says in moving forward to be truly independent the SFC should be making its own forecasts. 

  7. SFC must have the confidence of the publicpublished at 11:01

    Mark Taylor from Audit Scotland says it is fundamentally important that the way the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) works must be clear and transparent and have the confidence of the public.

    Mark Taylor, Audit Scotland
  8. ANALYSIS: No Detriment principlepublished at 10:57 Greenwich Mean Time 4 November 2015

    Douglas Fraser
    Scotland business & economy editor

    The 'no detriment' principle is a crucial part of the Smith Agreement

    It's in the Smith Commission report, page nine, section seven, subsection five, and it goes like this: "The package of powers agreed through the Smith Commission process, when taken together, should not cause detriment to the UK as a whole nor to any of its constituent parts".

    It goes on to say the further devolution should cause "neither the UK Government nor the Scottish Government to gain or lose financially simply as a consequence of devolving a specific power".

    The Smith Commission Report enshrines the principle of no detriment
    Image caption,

    The Smith Commission Report enshrines the principle of "no detriment"

    I'm hazarding a guess that you'll probably hear more about this, because if it's interpreted literally, it means that the use of any tax power which gets an advantage over another part of the UK requires compensation to the disadvantaged side.

    Whatever one side gains, to the disadvantage of the other, it has to refund.

    That looks fiendishly difficult to calculate in a way that either side of such negotiations could agree upon, as the impact could be felt over many years.

  9. We have to move away from the Barnett formulapublished at 10:51

    Ronald MacDonald from the University of Glasgow says the no detriment issue has to be taken very seriously.

    Professor Ronald MacDonald, University of Glasgow

    Professor MacDonald says we should move away from the Barnett formula and this may make some of the trickier no detriment issues a bit easier. 

  10. SFC could help the economic relationship between the Scottish and UK governmentspublished at 10:49

    Dr Jim Cuthbert says the SFC may have a role in trying to untangle the relationship between the Scottish government and Westminster after the Scotland Bill is passed.

    Dr Jim Cuthbert

    Dr Cuthbert says the relationship may become a "yah boo exercise" on economic issues and the SFC may be able to play an arbitrational role.   

  11. The second evidence session begins with the principle of no detrimentpublished at 10:46

    Mark Taylor from Audit Scotland says the Scottish Fiscal Commission will play a strong role.

    Mark Taylor, Audit Scotland

    Mr Taylor says there may be a degree of forecasting so the SFC may have a role in checking that.

  12. That concludes the first evidence session on the SFC, but don't go away...........published at 10'36

    The second evidence session begins shortly as the committee will continue to take evidence on the Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill, external

    MSPs will quiz Professor Ronald MacDonald from the University of Glasgow; Dr Jim Cuthbert and Mark Taylor from Audit Scotland.   

  13. Economic forecasting is 'not a spot the ball competition'published at 10:34

    Mr Chote says it will not be easy to tell which methodology underpinning the forecasts is better, as many years of data will be required.

    He adds: "It is not a spot the ball competition."

  14. Shared methodology between forecasts of OBR and the Scottish government useful but not essentialpublished at 10:32

    Mr Chote from the OBR says his organisation produces forecasts, whereas it will be the Scottish government not the SFC that will be producing the economic forecasts.

    Robert Chote, OBR

    He says in an ideal world the OBR and the Scottish government would have a shared methodology underpinning their forecasts, but it is not essential.

  15. Disagreement with the government will increase the view of SFC independencepublished at 10:25

    Mr Chote says the view of the independence of the SFC will be strengthened when it disagrees with the forecast of the Scottish government. 

    He says on an occasion when the prime minister misled, by accident or design, in relation to an OBR forecast, he wrote an open letter and it ended up leading on the Ten O' Clock news. This increased the view the OBR was independent.

    David Cameron
  16. The independence of the Scottish Fiscal Commissionpublished at 10:22

    SNP MSP John Mason raises the issue of the independence of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) from the Scottish government. 

    Mr Chote says the OBR makes a distinction between the interaction with UK government ministers formally, but it also makes sure there is a good day to day relationship with officials from both sides.

    Robert Chote, OBR

    He says without this the OBR would not be adding more than the Institute of Fiscal Studies. 

    It will be different in Scotland, as the SFC will check the Scottish government's economic forecast after the publication of the draft budget, says Mr Chote. 

    The OBR representative says because his organisation produces the forecast it is different than the situation the SFC will face, where it is only checking the reasonableness of the Scottish government forecast. 

  17. 'No need to worry' if OBR forecasts are different from the Scottish government forecasts.published at 10:00

    SNP MSP Mark Macdonald says the forecasts for LBBT from the UK government and Scottish government were at variance. 

    Going forward the Scottish government's forecasts will be checked by the SFC for reasonableness, how will that relate to the OBR forecasts.

    Mark MacDonald

    Mr Chote from the OBR says when devolved forecasts the Scottish government and the SFC will "be in the room, albeit via telephone".

    He says he does not think there is any need to worry if the OBR forecasts vary from the Scottish government.

  18. Scottish Fiscal Commission's relationship with the Scottish governmentpublished at 10:08

    Robert Chote says it is the for the UK government to respond to the OBR forecasts, not for the OBR to respond to the UK government. 

    Robert Chote

    Mr Chote says that is the opposite of the relationship the SFC will have with the Scottish government. 

  19. Background: Finance Secretary John Swinney says he will not interfere with Fiscal Commissionpublished at 09:58

    Scotland's finance secretary told MSPs he will not interfere with the work of the new Fiscal Commission in September. 

    John Swinney came before members of the finance committee the day after the Scottish government made public its plans for the coming year.

    John Swinney

    The commission will scrutinise new tax and borrowing powers heading to Holyrood from Westminster and will check the reasonableness of the Scottish government's economic forecasts.

    Mr Swinney said he had "no control" over the "independent" body. 

  20. SFC access to informationpublished at 09:55

    Labour MSP Richard Baker asks if SFC access to information should be on the face of the bill.

    Richard Baker, Labour MSP

    Robert Chote says it does not have to be on the face of the bill but the memorandum of understanding is important. 

    From the OBR point of view it is even more important, he says. 

    It is different for the SFC as they are not doing the forecasts, but the memorandum of understanding will be very useful.