Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, at COP28

Image source, UN CLIMATE CHANGE/KIARA WORTH

As the night deepens here in Dubai, rumours are flying about the new draft agreement text that has been expected since 18:00 local time (14:00 GMT).

The expectation is that this new draft will be the last.

My colleagues have seen ministers and negotiators shuffling and shuttling between rooms as this giant conference centre begins to thin out.

Sultan al-Jaber is meeting with several major country groups, and the most realistic expectation from his team is that a text will drop sometime overnight here.

Delegates will have a couple of hours to get to grips with it, to let it "marinate" as one observer put it, before what's hoped will be the final, huge meeting to approve an agreement. That's likely to begin around 08:00 Dubai time (04:00 GMT).

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter, at COP28

We've just caught a glimpse of the COP28 president as he walked between meetings – he looks quite relaxed.

I asked him if the new draft climate deal is more ambitious. He smiled, but said nothing.

His team say he's been in "extensive consultations" with many groups and nations to ensure everyone is heard, and all views are considered.

They say he'll be in those consultations until 03:00 local time (23:00 GMT).

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter, at COP28

The COP28 president is still talking to nations and groups one-on-one. It looks like there's a long night ahead of us.

I'm waiting in the hall outside Sultan al-Jaber's cordoned off offices.

I just saw UN climate chief Simon Stiell walking in surrounded by his team. He didn't seem in the mood to talk.

And on their way out, I saw Tuvalu negotiator Mervina Paueli, with the rest of the Alliance of Small Island States team. They represent nations most at risk from climate change.

She told me they're hoping for something ambitious from this text, but they will have more to say later.

I interviewed her last week about her long trip here to fight for the survival of her nation and home.

Esme Stallard
Climate reporter, at COP28

US climate envoy John Kerry says the new draft text - which is still being thrashed out - is progressing on fossil fuels.

He was asked by journalists, as he made his way between government meetings, if the language around fossil fuels was stronger.

"Yes it is," he replied.

We're still awaiting a copy of the latest draft as we go beyond 21:00 here in Dubai - countries have been locked in negotiations all day.

This is the first insight we've had into the new deal is shaping up.

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter, at COP28

Image source, EPA

Charities and opposition politicians are angry that UK climate minister Graham Stuart has left the Dubai climate talks as they enter the final hours.

He's flown back to the UK to vote in Parliament tonight - Rishi Sunak is racing to shore up support for his Rwanda bill.

ActionAid called Stuart's departure "a slap in the face to countries urging major polluters like the UK to act".

And Oxfam said: "There can be no more tragic outcome for UK climate diplomacy than this - flying home from talks to avert a climate catastrophe at the most critical moment".

Green MP Caroline Lucas said the government's "last shred of moral authority in tackling the climate emergency has been obliterated".

In the last hour, Stuart reiterated that the UK "will only agree to a statement that agrees to a phase out of unabated fossil fuels to meet our climate goals".

We're trying to find out if that means the UK will turn down any deal without the language.

The government says the UK is still being represented at these talks by their chief negotiator as well as Lord Benyon, who is joint junior climate minister.

Emma Calder
Reporting from COP28

As we continue to wait for movement here in Dubai, one of the negotiators has given us an insight into Monday's late-night talks.

Fiji's lead negotiator on climate change, Ambassador Amena Yauvoli, says he was up negotiating until 02:00 this morning.

Fiji, a low-lying island state in the Pacific, is pushing for global average temperature increases not to breach the key threshold of 1.5C, which scientists say is vital to fending off the most devastating impacts of climate change.

He says there were “some areas of divergences and areas of convergence” in the talks.

“We are hopeful that the presidency is hearing our voices, because it's a collective voice," he says.

Dulcie Lee
Live reporter, at COP28

The sun has set here at COP28 in Dubai, and wandering through the tree-lined boulevards a few moments ago there was a distinct sense of the calm before the storm (that disappeared momentarily when I spilled dinner all over myself).

A handful of people were strolling around in the warm evening air, but the busiest place seemed to be the food court, with the more strategic among us stocking up on snacks ahead of a potentially long night.

It's a waiting game here, as everyone holds their breath (or catches a few moments of shut-eye) ahead of a fresh climate proposal being released.

All 198 countries must agree to the plan, which will outline how the world will tackle climate change.

The COP presidency will hope that this offer lands better. Despite suggesting this morning that the backlash last night - over the removal of plans to phase out fossil fuels - was all part of the strategy, the fierce reaction from some quarters will surely be forefront of their minds tonight.

As we've reported, there was widespread fury when yesterday's draft deal was published - and that anger was apparent in protests at Expo City in Dubai today.

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Justin Rowlatt
Climate editor, at COP28

Uganda is one of quite a few developing countries that opposes an agreement to get rid of fossil fuels - and its energy minister, Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, isn’t remotely embarrassed about it.

She isn’t a climate denier. She says climate change is already causing problems in her country and she expects them to get worse.

And Uganda already has an ambitious plan to roll out renewable energy - even nuclear power - in the effort to go green.

But she says that transition can’t happen without the profits Uganda expects to earn from its fossil fuel reserves.

"The transition is not cheap," the minister tells me. "You’re not just going to kneel down and pray to God and see a transition. It takes money."

The current plan is to use some of the $47 billion she says Uganda’s oil and gas reserves are reckoned to be worth.

And she’s worried those reserves won’t be worth anything near as much as that if the world signs up to a deal to phase the stuff out.

That’s why "phasing out is completely out" for Uganda, she says.

Unless, she suggests, rich countries are willing to step up and help out with the finance - but there is no sign of that happening at the moment.

The developed world got rich by burning fossil fuels and they created the climate crisis in the process, runs the powerful logic of most of the developing world.

Surely it is only fair that rich countries now chip in to help poorer countries avoid doing the same?

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

As negotiations in Dubai reach ther final stages, the EU's climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has weighed in on the state of play.

Hoekstra says the EU wants this year's COP "to mark the beginning of the end of fossil fuels" and his delegation will continue to push for that.

In a statement on X, Hoekstra says the EU and other negotiating parties - including the High Ambition Coalition (HAC), the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and the Umbrella Group - are working together.

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter at COP28 in Dubai

Image source, Getty Images

Earlier in the talks, a row over climate science threatened to overshadow negotiations.

COP28 chief Sultan al-Jaber rowed back his comments that there was no science behind phasing out fossil fuels in order to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C.

So is the draft deal - published on Monday to widespread fury - attentive to the science?

Sitting in the main hall, I found Prof Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, the former vice chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the global authority on climate science.

This is his 27th UN climate summit - so he's certainly seen deals come and go.

"In 21 pages, there are 100 usages of words like acknowledging, noting, recognising.... but the verb 'decide' is there just four times," he says.

"The atmosphere doesn't understand that. It only understands real emissions or real cuts or real carbon absorption."

If governments leave COP with this draft agreement, the world will continue to warm "because there won't be any significant reduction in emissions," he says.

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter at COP28 in Dubai

As we've been reporting, there's a big row here at the COP summit in Dubai over ending fossil fuels. Let's have a look at the trouble-making words in the draft agreement:

• Could include - the text gives countries a loose menu of options for cutting greenhouse gas emissions (those gases that warm the planet), instead of strictly laying out that fossil fuels must be cut and how to do that
• Reduce consumption and production of fossil fuels - this is instead of "phasing out fossil fuels", the phrase repeated over and over again as code for slashing use and eventually mostly ending coal, oil and gas

• Emphasises that finance is critical - fairness and money are big sticking points. Many less developed nations want more help moving their economies away from fossil fuels into green energy. Without that money, they call rich nations that got rich off fossil fuels "hypocritical" for asking poorer countries not to also benefit
• Emphasises protecting nature - nature is essential if countries are to meet their climate goals, but the new text has dropped the stronger language of "calls upon"

Why the US are so keen for a big win in these climate talkspublished at 14:38 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

14:38 GMT 12 December 2023

Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, at COP28

Image source, Reuters

US special envoy John Kerry celebrated his 80th birthday yesterday, but he certainly didn't get the present he was hoping for.

Kerry and the US team have been on mission to secure a big win here in Dubai, haunted by the prospect of another Trump presidency undoing their work.

President Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement in June 2017 – he’s promised to “drill, drill, drill” if re-elected in 2024.

But the draft agreement released yesterday afternoon failed to meet the US ambition for a phase-out fossil fuels that doesn't use tech to capture their carbon.

Speaking in a closed meeting earlier, Kerry stated this was the "last" chance to keep the 1.5C temperature threshold in reach.

"Many of us have called for the world to largely phase out fossil fuels," Kerry was reported to have told ministers.

"I think most of you here refuse to be part of a charade."

Getting some form of strong agreement here is not just critical for the world, the US delegates say, but key to the re-election of Joe Biden as president.

Young voters, energised by concerns over climate, were a critical constituency for Biden in 2020.

Many of these have soured on Joe, mainly over Gaza, but also because he’s permitted oil drilling on public lands.

We've been prowling the hallways for the latest information here in Dubai. And the latest whispers suggest that the COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber is going to try and get the deal done tonight.

We're told it's a "more ambitious" text - a change on the current wording that many countries are so unhappy with. Is it is closer to the previous wording that pledged to phase out fossil fuels? We'll have to wait and see.

But a source says the president is confident that more nations are going to agree this time.

This will run through the night if necessary, we're told. We'll be here throughout bringing you the latest.

Dulcie Lee
Live reporter, at COP28

As the clock strikes 18:00 here in Dubai, COP28's climate talks are officially overrunning.

Earlier in the week, the top team seemed quietly confident of getting everything sewn up by now - but there's still a fair way to go before all 198 countries can agree on what to do next about climate change.

What's the issue? Representatives from dozens of countries kicked off yesterday after a draft deal ditched a proposal to end fossil fuels. Some countries, though, support the latest text - see my colleague's previous post.

What next? The COP28 team, run by Sultan al-Jaber, are putting together a new text - and will show that to countries. Another bloc of countries may also be preparing their own versions. Latest estimates we're hearing on the ground suggest it will be later tonight.

It's not unusual for these talks to overrun - in fact, every single COP since 2004 has done so.

The conference centre continues to empty out - people are packing up and empty drinks trolleys are being wheeled away - but not before some kind baristas gave my colleague a free drink to see her through the night...

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter, at COP28

Image source, Getty Images

The draft climate deal here at COP28 is controversial with some nations because it deletes a promise to "phase out fossil fuels".

But others see that as a win. Opec - a group representing oil nations - warned their members on Saturday to strongly oppose such language.

So I've tracked down some Opec member states to ask them why.

First, I went to Saudi Arabia's zone - no comment.

And Libya? No sign of them at their office.

Then I found Iraq's office, where I spoke to Yousif Muyad Yousif, director of the climate change department.

He showed me the following pictures of the impacts of climate change in Iraq, where rivers run dry and people are forced to spend $80 a month on buying clean water., external

By 2030, Iraq is forecast to be the third largest contributor to global oil supply. But it's a poor country reliant on that income.

Yousif said nations must respond to the climate crisis in ways that reflect their national circumstances.

"We want to focus on emissions, not the source," he says.

And a lack of financial support is crucial in their objections, he tells me.

"We need to increase our resilience to climate change - how can we do that without finance?"

It highlights just why there's so much disagreement here in Dubai.

Any deal in Dubai must satisfy oil-rich nationspublished at 13:03 Greenwich Mean Time 12 December 2023

13:03 GMT 12 December 2023

Justin Rowlatt
Climate editor, at COP28

Image source, Getty Images

There is a uneasy calm here in Dubai. The climate talks still hang in the balance.

Countries negotiated through the night. Then, late this morning UAE-time, the discussions were suspended while the country's COP28 team drew up a new draft agreement.

We’re expecting the latest text in less than an hour.

That will give us a much better idea of how ambitious the final deal is likely to be. The aim is to come up with a compromise that all the nations of the world can agree on - quite a challenge.

It needs to find a path that signals that the world recognises fossil fuel use must be curbed to control climate change - but which is also acceptable to the oil rich nations who have been blocking a deal.

And it also needs to demonstrate that richer countries accept they need to find more cash to help developing countries with climate action.

And don’t forget, success depends on consensus - all 198 countries need to sign up.

It is a tricky tightrope and whatever we get is very unlikely to satisfy everyone.

Chris Mason
Political editor

As we've been reporting, UK climate minister Graham Stuart is flying back from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai to vote in Parliament tonight.

We now have a bit more to share with you.

A source has told the BBC: "The UK's chief negotiator Alison Campbell continues to lead negotiations for the UK, and the UK government continues to be represented at a ministerial level at COP28 by Lord Benyon."

The source added: "Lord Benyon and Alison Campbell remain in constant contact with minister Stuart, who is responsible for the final decision on key issues and retains responsibility for UK negotiations overall."

Dulcie Lee
Live reporter, at COP28

As negotiators from almost 200 countries work to salvage a climate deal this afternoon, there's no shortage of inspirational messaging for them here in Dubai.

Almost every surface of Expo 2020's huge conference space has been draped in calls to action and reminders of the task ahead.

Head to the vegan food vans, and you’ll find the carbon footprint of each meal laid out below the price.

Wander down the vast, air-conditioned halls and you'll find messages such as "let's think without limits" hanging from the ceiling in both English and Arabic.

And head to the (slightly less glamorous) media centre, and you’ll find messages of “hope inspires action” emblazoned on the entrance to the toilets.

Georgina Rannard
Climate reporter, at COP28

Image source, EPA

Last night, the UK said the latest climate deal on the table here at COP28 was "disappointing", as they wanted a "phase out of unabated fossil fuels".

Now we've had it confirmed that UK climate minister Graham Stuart has left the talks in Dubai and is heading back to London.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a key vote in Parliament today on his flagship immigration bill, which seeks to send some UK asylum seekers to Rwanda. We've got live coverage of that in our other page here.

We've asked the government for more details - we'll let you know if we hear more.