Postpublished at 17:55 BST 21 June 2024
WinViz now has South Africa on top.
If you're new to WinViz, this means, based on historical data, South Africa would win 57 times out of 100 from here.

South Africa beat England by seven runs to close on semi-finals
England finish on 156-6 in pursuit of 164 in Saint Lucia
They were 61-4 and needed 101 from final nine overs before Harry Brook and Liam Livingstone shared 78
England needed 25 from 18 balls but South Africa close out for win
South Africa raced to 69-0 off seven overs but England rallied well to limit them to 163-6
Quinton de Kock top-scores with 65 and David Miller adds 43
Jofra Archer takes 3-40 and Jos Buttler claims superb catch and run out
Ffion Wynne
WinViz now has South Africa on top.
If you're new to WinViz, this means, based on historical data, South Africa would win 57 times out of 100 from here.
Steven Finn
Former England fast bowler on BBC Sounds
England have shown intent, they have not just looked to knock it around. They haven't quite got the ball away and lost the big wicket of Phil Salt, but are trusting their intuition and not being reckless knowing that the longer you bat on this wicket the better idea they will get of how it plays.
With his confidence high after that catch, here's Nortje with the ball.
He's rapid, but that may not help him today. Variations and slower balls will be the main currency.
Target 164
Two runs and the wicket from Maharaj's over.
Gold dust.
Steven Finn
Former England fast bowler on BBC Sounds
There was no pace on the delivery. It was short and wide, giving Bairstow the opportunity to cut. But because it was so wide he can only toe-end it and the ball spooned up to Nortje, who took a really smart catch.
Bairstow c Nortje b Maharaj 16 (Eng 43-2)
Another screamer!
It's a cracking set up from Keshav Maharaj. Jonny Bairstow tried to reverse sweep the first two balls but found the fielder on both occasions. So the spinner throws it wider and slower, forcing Bairstow to add his own pace on the ball and slices it to Anrich Nortje who takes a diving catch at point.
Steven Finn
Former England fast bowler on BBC Sounds
The pitch is playing slower than we anticipated. It is the whitest strip on the square with a layer of grass on top which might mean the ball is gripping just slightly.
Target 164
Here's Ottniel Baartman with his canny medium pace, which should suit this pitch.
Jonny Bairstow tries to use his feet on a couple of occasions but struggles for timing. Just four from the over, and no boundaries.
That's a pretty good powerplay from South Africa. Perhaps David Miller was right - it doesn't look that easy to time the ball.
At the same stage, the Proteas were 63-0.
But, England should really be two down...
Target 164
Great response from Maharaj.
He doesn't offer any more width and only a couple more come from the rest of the over.
First look at spin from Keshav Maharaj.
And Jos Buttler doesn't hang around. Reverse sweep for four, beautifully timed.
Let's focus on the good catches instead, shall we?
Here's Reeza Hendricks' stunner to get rid of Phil Salt.
Steven Finn
Former England fast bowler on BBC Sounds
It has been good from Kagiso Rabada so far. He's mixing his pace nicely and he isn't letting the batter get used to it. That is what Jofra Archer did wrong to Quinton de Kock in that over of 21 in the powerplay.
Target 164
There's a bit of tension in the middle as Bairstow and Rabada collide while the batter scampers a single, and the bowler charges for the ball.
Both are fiery characters and could be quite the battle, but they laugh it off with a fist bump.
A good over from Rabada but that dropped catch will play on his mind for a while.
Steven Finn
Former England fast bowler on BBC Sounds
Have you ever tried to take one of those, Geoff?
They are hard because Jonny Bairstow has thrown everything at it and it did carry but your perception is that it is always going to fall short.
Geoff Lemon
Test Match Special commentator on BBC Sounds
That was a simple catch. Heinrich Klaasen has had a bad day.
Eng 27-1
Just as we were praising all the good catches!
Jonny Bairstow tries to launch one over cover, but gets a thick edge that flies to Heinrich Klaasen at deep point. He has to charge in, but he gets in a good position with two hands to it but the ball slips through.
A stinker, and Kagiso Rabada is raging.
Target 164
Bairstow gets a thick inside edge through his legs and past the stumps for four.
Not pretty, but it's effective.
Target 164
Marco Jansen starts his over well before gifting Jonny Bairstow a free hit after overstepping.
Henry Moeran
BBC Test Match Special commentator on BBC Sounds
Ahead of each match, every venue has unique on-field entertainment. In St Lucia that includes performers on stilts like this young man, waiting in the wings before heading to the middle through a perilous path past the ground staff. We’re used to fielders at long-leg, less so long-legs heading onto the field…