Who will triumph in tight Championship promotion race?

Just two points separate Leeds United, Sheffield United and Burnley with 10 games of the season remaining

Daniel Farke has been around the block marked 'Championship promotion race' enough times to know that as significant as Leeds United's win over Sheffield United on 24 February may have felt in the moment, it was, as he rather unromantically said, "just three points".

Common consensus at the time was that victory would lead to the Whites gradually starting to break away from the Blades and Burnley.

But two weeks later, without those three points, they would now be third.

While Leeds have drawn with West Bromwich Albion and lost at Portsmouth, Sheffield United and Burnley have enjoyed back-to-back wins, so automatic promotion is now a matter of just two points between the three sides.

Not forgetting Sunderland as perennial dark horses (cats) in the final straight, but such has been the consistency of those above them, it would take a catastrophic collapse from two of them for Regis Le Bris' side to sneak in.

The Championship is rarely a league where it is particularly smart to make predictions on forecasts of what definitely will happen. Sometimes it is just best to take in the chaos and unpredictability of it all and hope your team comes out on the right side it.

The margins between immediate passage to the Premier League and the potential pain of the play-offs means no-one involved can be so relaxed - and there is a palpable sense of pressure around each and every game now.

Over the past 48 hours, both Leeds boss Farke and his Sheffield United counterpart Chris Wilder have used the phrase "to the wire" in terms of how this promotion race is going to go, and you would imagine Burnley manager Scott Parker will be following them pretty soon.

BBC Sport has examined some of the statistical markers of relevance to the top four in the Championship as we enter the final 10 games of the 2024-25 campaign to decide who will be playing top-flight football next season.

What do their respective run-ins looks like?

Leeds United

Based on the respective league positions of their opponents, Leeds have a far more agreeable run-in among than their automatic promotion rivals. On current standings, the highest-placed team they have to face are Bristol City, in seventh, at Elland Road in the penultimate game of the season.

As a side point, the Robins have not won at that particular ground since 1979, so while they may be the 'best' team Leeds are still to play, the hosts have the considerable weight of history as well as the carrot of Premier League football.

• Millwall (H)

• QPR (A)

• Swansea (H)

• Luton (A)

• Middlesbrough (A)

• Preston (H)

• Oxford (A)

• Stoke (H)

• Bristol City (H)

• Plymouth (A)

Sheffield United

The play-off seeking Robins are the visitors to Bramall Lane on Tuesday, followed by the Steel City Derby this weekend - which is shaping up to be a pretty defining few days for the Blades.

Not to mention the arrival of Coventry City after the international break, with Frank Lampard's side having won nine of their past 10 to thrust themselves into play-off contention.

That trip to Turf Moor on Easter Monday also looks pretty seismic given the small margins that exist between these teams and the potential for that win to separate Sheffield United from the Clarets, and potentially vice versa, of course.

• Bristol City (H)

• Sheffield Wednesday (A)

• Coventry (H)

• Oxford (A)

• Millwall (H)

• Plymouth (A)

• Cardiff (H)

• Burnley (A)

• Stoke (A)

• Blackburn (H)

Burnley beat Sheffield United 2-0 on Boxing Day

Burnley

Of the automatic promotion contenders, the Clarets have by far the toughest schedule, with three top-six teams to play – starting with West Brom – and matches against four others who would consider themselves to be in the play-off hunt.

• West Brom (H)

• Swansea (A)

• Bristol City (H)

• Coventry (A)

• Derby (A)

• Norwich (H)

• Watford (A)

• Sheffield United (H)

• QPR (A)

• Millwall (H)

Sunderland

The Black Cats have it all to do. But with the lack of expectancy and pressure, it could lead to them creeping up the table and applying further stress on those above them.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on your viewpoint, they don't face any of the three teams above them – which could enable them to take points off their rivals – but they do take on Coventry and West Brom before the end of the season, who occupy the places immediately below them.

• Preston (H)

• Coventry (A)

• Millwall (H)

• West Brom (A)

• Norwich (A)

• Swansea (H)

• Bristol City (A)

• Blackburn (H)

• Oxford (A)

• QPR (H)

How are they expected to finish?

Anger giving way to anxiety and angst may have abided among Leeds fans following their defeat at Portsmouth, but according to Opta's prediction model they are still forecast to come out top of the Championship pile at around 14:30 GMT on May 3.

Also of note is that while there are sure to be some fluctuations in positioning, based on current calculations the top six right now will be the same order when the regular season draws to a close in just under eight weeks' time.

What's the magic number?

Based on the past 10 Championship seasons, the average points of those securing a place in the top two has been 92.4, or 93 should you wish to round-up for simplicity and peace of mind.

Leeds and Sheffield United are 17 points shy of that mark, and require 1.7 points per game over the remainder of the campaign to get there, while Burnley are 19 adrift and need 1.9, and Sunderland 25 and 2.5 – further emphasising the turn of events that needs to transpire for the Black Cats to get over the line.

For reference, Leeds have averaged 2.11 points per game this season, and Sheffield United 2.16 (taking into account their two-point deduction) - the Whites 2.3 over their past 10 and the Blades 2.4. Burnley are on 2.05 for the campaign overall and 2.2 taking in their previous 10.

West Brom secured their place in the top flight in 2019-20 with just 83 points, as the lowest number within this sample size, whereas at the other end of the scale, Ipswich Town stormed over the line with 96 among second-placed teams.

Of course, that isn't necessarily what's required to make it, because ultimately all a runner-up needs to do is finish above the side in third by means of one point or even just goal difference - pertinent given how tight things currently are.

The average points recorded by third-placed teams over the past 10 seasons has been 85.1, which leaves 86 as a potential number to rubber-stamp promotion, but so close are the contenders in 2024-25, that seems a dangerously low target.

The highest points haul for a third-placed team in the Championship in the 21st century was Leeds last season with 90. There's every chance that will be exceeded this term.