Summary

  • Use play icon at top of the page to watch live coverage from the Lusail Iconic Stadium in Lusail, Qatar

  • Saudi Arabia would progress to the last 16 with a win

  • A Mexico win would see them through if Poland beat Argentina

  • If that games finishes in a draw or Argentina win, Mexico would need to win by at least four goals

  1. 'Lewandowski deserves more coverage'published at 18:47 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Alan Shearer
    Former England striker on BBC One

    Lewandowski and Messi are two giants of the game who have taken goalscoring to different levels. If it wasn't for Messi and Ronaldo, I'm pretty sure Lewandowski would have got a lot more coverage, he probably deserves a lot more coverage.

  2. Sutton's predictionpublished at 18:45 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Saudi Arabia v Mexico (19:00 GMT)

    Chris SuttonImage source, BBC Sport

    I have been really disappointed with Mexico so far and, even if they win this game, they will be hoping Poland do them a favour and beat Argentina.

    Saudi Arabia are in control of their own fate but maybe their best day at this World Cup has already happened.

    Mexico have created so little so far, it is quite hard to make a case for them to win this game but I think they will find a way. They have to show something in attack at some point, surely.

    Sutton's prediction: 0-1

    Chris Sutton's predictions for the final round of World Cup group games

  3. Matching Maradonapublished at 18:43 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Banner showing Diego Maradona and Lionel MessiImage source, Getty Images

    Lionel Messi has scored in six successive appearances for Argentina in all competitions, his joint-longest scoring run for his national side (also 6 between November 2011 - September 2012).

    He now has as many World Cup goals as Diego Maradona (8), with only Gabriel Batistuta (10) netting more for Argentina at the tournament overall

    Messi is set to make his 22nd World Cup appearance this evening, overtaking Maradona (21) as the outright most capped Argentinian in World Cup history.

  4. Postpublished at 18:42 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Andy Cryer
    BBC Sport in Qatar

    Everywhere you go outside the stadium here is blue and white, number 10 Argentina shirts.

    Some say Messi, some say Diego.

    I don’t fancy being the next Argentine number 10.

  5. Brazil favourites, but England growingpublished at 18:41 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    World Cup predictorImage source, BBC Sport

    England have climbed to third favourites to win the World Cup following a 3-0 victory over Wales last night, according to a prediction model from Opta.

    After topping their group and setting up a last 16 clash with Senegal on Sunday, the model predicts that Gareth Southgate's team have a 12% chance of lifting the trophy.

    Brazil were the favourites before the tournament got underway and two impressive group stage wins have increased expectation that the Selecao can go all the way.

    In fact, the data from Stats Perform suggests they have a one-in-four chance of going home from Qatar with a sixth World Cup.

    Argentina was the second favourite just behind Brazil before the tournament started, however an opening game shock defeat to Saudi Arabia saw their probability of winning the World Cup drop from 13% to as low as 7%, before rebounding after their crucial win against Mexico.

    Germany's likelihood of winning the World Cup is down to 3.4% after their defeat against Japan 2-1 and a draw with Spain 1-1.

    The prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome - win, draw or loss - by using betting market odds and Opta's team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model then considers opponent strength and the difficulty of their path to the final by using match outcome probabilities.

  6. Postpublished at 18:40 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

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  7. Previous World Cup meetingspublished at 18:40 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Mario KempesImage source, Getty Images

    This is the third World Cup meeting between Poland and Argentina – Poland won 3-2 in 1974, while Argentina won 2-0 en route to winning the trophy for the first time in 1978.

    Mario Kempes (above) scored both goals in the latter game.

    The last meeting between these two came in June 2011, with Poland winning 2-1.

    Robert Lewandowski (number nine) challenges for the ball with Christian Ansaldi (centre)Image source, Getty Images
  8. 'Messi always produces the goods'published at 18:39 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Rio Ferdinand
    Former England defender on BBC One

    The numbers tell you how reliant Argentina are on Messi. if he scores today, it will be the seventh consecutive game that he has scored in. He's got 12 goals in his last six games so the reliance on him is as big as ever.

    But this is a guy who is used to that. He's used to winning, he's used to being the main centrepiece of every team he plays in.

    He always produces the goods so he'll be looking to do that today and carry his country into the next round.

  9. 'Big win needed for Argentina'published at 18:39 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Pablo Zabaleta
    Ex- Man City and Argentina defender on BBC One

    It's been three long days. The win against Mexico was a sigh of relief for everyone but we still need a big win tonight, we want to go through, it's not going to be an easy game but hopefully the lads can put in a good performance tonight.

  10. Postpublished at 18:39 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    As a result of the early games in Group D, we know that the winners of tonight's group will face Australia in the last 16 on Saturday.

    The runners up have the unenviable task of taking on France on Sunday.

  11. Postpublished at 18:37 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Saudi Arabia v Mexico (19:00 GMT)

    Mexico are unbeaten in five previous meetings with Saudi Arabia, winning four and drawing the other.

    Those five meetings all came between 1995 and 1999 - in the Confederation Cup and friendlies.

  12. Postpublished at 18:37 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Saudi Arabia v Mexico (19:00 GMT)

    If Mexico fail to win tonight, we are going to see a very strange sight next week.

    The last time Mexico didn't feature in a World Cup knockout stages was in 1990 - when they weren't at the tournament.

    Almost impressively on each of those seven occasions they went out in the last 16.

    You'd have to go back to 1978 for the last time they exited in the group stage.

  13. Postpublished at 18:35 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Saudi Arabia v Mexico (19:00 GMT)

    Shamoon Hafez
    BBC Sport at Lusail Stadium

    Lusail is barely full but it is soooo loud in here already.

    The Saudi fans are making a deafening noise, it's going to leave my ears ringing for the rest of the week.

    When I went to watch Fenerbahce v Galatasaray a couple of years ago, that was LOUD but this is something else.

  14. Messi or Maradona?published at 18:34 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Former Argentina defender Pablo Zabaleta sits down with BBC Sport's Liam Loftus to answer your questions about the World Cup and his career...

    Media caption,

    World Cup 2022: Pablo Zabaleta answers your questions in Pundit Q&A

  15. 'Why Lionel Messi is Argentina’s true leader now'published at 18:32 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Pablo ZabaletaImage source, BBC Sport

    Nothing is done for Argentina or Lionel Messi yet.

    You all saw the tension and anxiety we suffered during our game against Mexico until we scored, and also the relief at the final whistle after our 2-0 victory.

    There was so much pressure on us after we lost to Saudi Arabia and that relief was for everyone - for the whole team and all our fans here, but especially for Messi.

    It would have been a terrible and painful end to see Argentina eliminated in the group stage in what is probably his last World Cup.

    We are not in the last 16 yet, though. Now we have to win again - this time against Poland - to be sure we make it.

    It won't be easy, and the team still needs to improve a lot, but hopefully we have some confidence after beating Mexico.

    And we always have Messi, of course. We have relied on him so many times in the past, and we know we can rely on him again in Qatar.

    It will hard for us to go far in this tournament, we know that. But at least we can dream about this Argentina team again - and that is because of him.

    Read more here.

  16. Postpublished at 18:30 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Andy Cryer
    BBC Sport in Qatar

    There is around half an hour to go until kick-off and this place is already bouncing.

    The Argentina fans are in the mood. But will their team be?

  17. Postpublished at 18:30 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Saudi Arabia v Mexico (19:00 GMT)

    SaudiImage source, .

    This is Saudi Arabia's sixth World Cup. Their shock win over Argentina was their fourth win in the tournament's history - with two coming in 1994.

  18. Can Poland shock the world?published at 18:28 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Poland v Argentina (19:00 GMT)

    Andy Cryer
    BBC Sport in Qatar

    Poland fansImage source, BBC Sport

    They may be massively outnumbered but it a huge night for Poland and Robert Lewandowski.

    Beat Argentina and they are through. It would be huge!

  19. Postpublished at 18:27 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Simon Gleave
    Head of sports analysis, Nielsen Gracenote

    Nothing has been decided in Group C. Gracenote's number two Argentina (78% chance) and 21st ranked Poland (77%) are favourites to progress. Saudi Arabia have 33% chance of reaching the last-16 and Mexico are the outsiders with 12% chance. Argentina have 61% chance of finishing first and facing Australia in the next round. Poland have 33% chance of finishing as group winners and Saudi Arabia 6%.

  20. Postpublished at 18:25 Greenwich Mean Time 30 November 2022

    Saudi Arabia v Mexico (19:00 GMT)

    BBC Monitoring
    The world through its media

    Asked for a prediction on tonight's match against Saudi Arabia, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said the team will win 4-0., external

    Such a margin of victory will be essential to Mexico securing qualification to the last 16, having lost to Argentina and drawn with Poland in Group C.