Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

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Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee - and until recently an economic adviser to the Labour Party - tells Today that a rate cut today would be “an opening act”.

“The question is really what will happen to the data after this? So the MPC will make a start – probably cut rates, probably do some quantitative easing and they’ll be looking at the data.

“But there are some similarities to 2008. The data worsened quickly after the MPC acted and then the Chancellor of the Exchequer acted about six weeks later so [it was], if you like, a double whammy or fiscal and monetary policy working together. But everybody’s going to be watching the data and hoping that it doesn’t worsen but if it does this will be the start of a number of episodes of action.”

Professor Blanchflower said he would not rule out the Bank of England announcing a negative interest rate, like the European Central Bank, but adds: “It won’t happen at this meeting”.

He says that if economic data worsened, Chancellor Philip Hammond should announce a “stimulus Budget” that could include a cut to VAT: “I’ve actually argued that Hammond should cut VAT by 5% not least because it acts very quickly and it is highly progressive when you cut a regressive tax.”

During the financial crisis, the then Chancellor, Alistair Darling, cut VAT from 17.5% to 15% to encourage consumer spending and boost economic growth.

Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter

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Britain’s love of dogs and cats has helped Pets at Home, external increase like-for-like sales by 2.2% in the first quarter to 21 July - better than the 1.7% rise for the same period last year.

Pooch primping and fancy pet foods - as well as online shopping - have helped deliver growth at the chain, which opened three Vets4Pets practices, four new stores and six Groom Room salons in the period. 

It now has 431 stores across the UK as well as 391 veterinary practices.

However, Brexit remains a concern. Chief executive Ian Kellett said: “Whilst the consumer outlook is uncertain, we remain confident in our long-term strategy and are reassured by the historical resilience of the pet market in times of economic downturn.”

Pets at Home shares are 1.6p higher at 240.5p - but have fallen 12% this year.

More on the behind-the-scenes glamour of breakfast television from Ben Thompson:

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The FTSE 100 is up 9 points at 6,643 points, with RSA Insurance the top riser - up 2.5%, while SABMiller is the laggard, down 1.5%.

On the FTSE 250, investors have welcomed the positive news today from Serco, which is 12% higher, while Ladbrokes shares are up more than 5%. Insurer Hastings Group is the biggest faller, down 4%.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

However, shadow chancellor John McDonnell tells Today:

Duncan Weldon, head of research at Resolution Group, tweets:

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Johnston Press, external, which now owns the i newspaper as well as titles including the Scotsman and the Yorkshire Post, said adjusted pre-tax profit fell 27% to £12.3m in the 26 weeks to 2 July.

That figure is somewhat better than the statutory pre-tax loss of £183.7m, which reflects writedowns of £183.6m on its titles and print assets.

Johnston blamed lower job, property and car advertising for a 9.7% fall in revenues to £113.9m despite acquiring the i earlier this year. 

The company also said it was too early to assess how the Brexit vote would affect it.

Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter

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The London Stock Exchange’s merger with Deutsche Borse might be heading in the right direction, but the company pulls no punches on the potential impact of Brexit.

Reporting a 9% rise, external in interim revenue to £721.9m and a fall in pre-tax profit from £176.2m to £164.1m, the LSE warned: “The results of the vote could also lead to market speculation regarding possible similar referendums in other EU countries and uncertainty regarding the future composition and direction of the EU.”

While the LSE says it is “well diversified”, the company admits the Brexit vote could lead to higher client attrition. 

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Toyota said quarterly profit fell 15%, hit by a sharp rally in the yen and falling North American sales, while it also trimmed full-year profit and sales forecasts. The world's biggest car maker posted a 552.5bn yen ($5.4bn, £4bn) net profit in the three months to 30 June, down from 646.4bn yen last year, while revenue fell 5.7% to 6.59 trillion yen. 

The results underline the effect of a stronger yen on Japanese exporters. The currency has rallied since the start of the year amid volatile equity markets and the uncertainly caused by the UK's Brexit vote.

Toyota blamed the stronger yen for cutting its annual profit from 1.5 trillion yen to 1.45 trillion.

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Some more results today to mention: 

- Ladbrokes, external reported a better-than-expected 34% rise in first-half operating profit, helped by some bookmaker-friendly sporting results. The bookmaker, whose £2.3bn merger with rival Coral was approved last month, posted group operating profit of £52.3m for the six months to 30 June on a 13% jump in revenue to £661.8m. 

- Inmarsat pre-tax profits fell , external£11.5m for the half year to £154.4m despite a slight rise in revenues to £629m. Rupert Pearce, chief executive, said: "Our markets continue to be challenging and the outlook is becoming much harder to call as the macro economic environment worsens."

- Outsourcer Serco has raised its 2016 profit forecast for the second time and expects to make underlying trading profit of at least £80m - £15m higher than its previous forecast. Serco posted a reported profit, external of £46.4m for the six months to 30 June compared with a loss of £91.7m for the same period last year. 

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First-half operating profit at insurer Aviva, external is up 13% to £1.32bn as general insurance premiums rose 7% to £3.99bn. The interim dividend is also up by 10% to 7.42p a share.

Chief executive Mark Wilson said Aviva was expanding despite challenging market conditions.

"We are growing in the UK, we are investing in the UK. We like the UK. And we are also benefitting from Aviva's diversity, with 42% of our earnings coming from outside of the UK," he said.

Shares in aerospace and defence company Cobham have already fallen 40% this year after profits were hit by delayed shipments in its wireless business and lower demand from oil and mining customers in Australia. That sparked a £500m emergency rights issue in April.

The stock could well sink further today after the company reported a 36% fall in profit, external to £102m for the six months to 30 June, although it said it is on track to meet full-year expectations.

Business presenter Ben Thompson has got the sticky back plastic out today in the Midlands.

Half-year profits at private healthcare firm Bupa, external have fallen 45% to £139.6m after being hit by reduced revenues in the oil and gas sector and a one-off charge on redeeming debt.

However, revenue was up 7% to £5.3bn with Bupa, which operates globally, benefiting from the fall in sterling. Underlying pre-tax profits were up 2% to £261.7m in the six months to 30 June.  

Chief executive Evelyn Bourke said: "Corporate oil and gas contracts have suffered as a result of the falling oil price, resulting in reduced revenues and profits. While oil and gas firms still see the benefit of having cover for employees, they are reducing some of the benefits." 

Bupa covers 32 million customers in 190 countries, running hospitals, care homes and health insurance schemes.

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Interesting move by the Australia government today: it plans to bring its biggest banks before parliament's economics committee each year to provide a full account of their affairs. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced the move amid calls for a public inquiry into the banking system.

Mr Turnbull blasted banks yesterday for refusing to fully pass on the central bank's 0.25 percentage point cut in interest rates this week, demanding top executives appear in public and explain themselves.

Australia's "Big Four" banks - National Australia Bank , Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and ANZ - have faced calls for a broader Royal Commission since the beginning of this year. 

A series of scandals involving improper financial advice, interest rate rigging and insurance scams have added to the perception that banks need to be more accountable to customers. 

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

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Erik Britton, director of Fathom Consulting, tells Today that an interest rate cut has less to do with the economy and more to do with the Bank of England keeping its credibility after making it clear it would take action in July or August.

He says a cut would not have a “material impact” on the economy and that the Bank had “tied itself up in knots”.

Poor productivity was a bigger problem for Britain and that reducing the main rate from 0.5% to 0.25% could end up hampering activity, Mr Britton adds. 

Richard Hunter, head of research at Wilson King, also says a rate cut will have “little impact on the market” when the decision is announced at midday.

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Some lucky small business owners will be taking a trip to Downing Street this afternoon to meet Prime Minister Theresa May. She'll be using the event to tell the UK's 5.4 million SMEs that she wants to help them take advantage of the opportunities provided by the UK's Brexit vote. 

The June 23 Brexit vote has raised serious questions about the future of the world's fifth largest economy, with some surveys indicating a recession, a hit to consumer confidence and a possible fall in investment.

"From dynamic start-ups to established family firms, our small and medium-sized businesses are the backbone of our country," Mrs May said ahead ahead of the meeting. "I want to build an economy that works for all, and that means working with, and listening to, smaller firms."

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Dame Kate Barker was a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee when it made the last interest rate cut seven years ago. 

She hopes the Bank will not do what almost every economist expects it to do today: cut rates.

Her argument is that such action will not help the real economy – and may force some savers to dip into their capital or cut spending: “The case for a rate cut is really very weak.”

Dame Kate says the world is very different now compared with 2009 in the midst of the financial crisis and that tax cuts would boost incomes in the short term and thus bolster the economy.

She tells Wake Up to Money that the Bank should focus on ensuring lending carrys on flowing: “It’s not about keeping powder dry – this is a question to which a rate cut is just not the answer.”  

Business presenter Victoria Fritz tweets: