Summary

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies is warning that the chances of Reeves meeting her fiscal rules are "a coin toss"

  • The think tank says that more tax rises might come in the Autumn Budget, with director Paul Johnson saying: "there's a good chance that economic ... forecasts will deteriorate"

  • The warning comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK is speaking to the US to try and make a deal that would avoid the implementation of 25% tariffs on cars and car parts

  • Earlier, the government's forecaster halved its growth projection for the year to 2025 and warned Reeves that UK and global economic uncertainty could derail her plans

  • The chancellor says there will be a £9.9bn surplus in day-to-day spending in five years but the OBR says it is a "very small margin" and risks are heightened by "significant uncertainty" in the UK and global economy

  • How could the Spring Statement affect you? Our cost of living correspondent breaks down the changes

Media caption,

Rachel Reeves asked if she has concerns about Trump's car tariffs

  1. Reeves is 'taxing the living daylights' out of people, Stride tells BBC Breakfastpublished at 08:46 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Mel Stride, in Westminster, looks to camera wearing a dark blue jacket

    Next up, shadow chancellor Mel Stride is speaking to hosts Charlie Stayt and Nina Warhurst from Westminster.

    It is put to him that Reeves says her vision will work in the long term.

    Stride says this is what Reeves said back in October 2024, and since then she has been "taxing the living daylights out of people", talking down the economy, borrowing and spending vast amounts of money and stoking inflation.

    "She's actually killed growth stone dead... it's Britain that's paying the price of the chancellor's decisions."

    He says he isn't convinced that the UK is in a strong, resilient enough position to build the economy back up.

  2. Shadow chancellor to speak to BBC Breakfastpublished at 08:36 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    The chancellor has been on a rapid media circuit this morning to discuss her Spring Statement. But shortly, we're going to hear from the opposition.

    Mel Stride, the Tory shadow chancellor, is about to speak on the BBC's Breakfast programme.

    We'll be following his comments here - but as a reminder, you can click watch live at the top of the page to listen in yourself.

    mel strideImage source, PA Media
  3. Does change under Labour mean cuts to the poorest?published at 08:33 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Robinson asks his final question.

    "You came in promising change on the Labour manifesto. Was it our mistake not to understand that change under Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves meant cuts to benefits for the poorest?"

    He also asks what "change" really means.

    Rachel Reeves responds by listing what the government has done: she says NHS waiting lists have fallen for five months, free breakfast clubs have been introduced for primary schools, and defence spending is increasing to 2.5% of GDP.

    With that, the interview ends.

  4. Tariffs 'probably the biggest problem you've got' - Today programme to Reevespublished at 08:33 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Host Nick Robinson describes the US tariffs as "probably the biggest problem you've got".

    The Office for Budget Responsibility say it could make the forecast "completely meaningless", and earlier its head said Reeves only has a "tiny cushion" to cope if things go wrong.

    Reeves is asked if she will be back in October with further cuts and tax rises.

    "There's always risks, but there's always opportunities," the chancellor says.

    Reeves says what keeps her up at night, and what she got into politics for, is to go further and faster on delivering economic growth and getting "more money in people's pockets".

  5. 'Intense negotiations' ongoing with US on tradepublished at 08:32 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    There are a few days left of "intense negotiations" left between the UK and the US, before Trump's tariffs on care exports comes into force on 2 April, Reeves says.

    Nick Robinson asks about specific car manufacturers. Will Jaguar, Rolls Royce, Aston Martin and Lotus be affected? And, he adds. the British government currently gives a lot of money to Tesla at the moment. It's received £200m in grants since 2016. Might the government use that in its trade talks?

    Reeves replies that she doesn't want to "get into a trade war, but we are looking at the zero emission vehicle mandate, which is I think why some of that money goes to Tesla".

  6. Pocket money analogy 'clumsy' - Reevespublished at 08:28 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Reeves is asked by Nick Robinson if her Deputy Treasury Minister Darren Jones was right to imply that what is being lost is "pocket money"?

    Reeves says no, he was clumsy in his analogy. She adds that Jones has apologised for that "and rightly so".

    "Of course it's not pocket money," she says.

    Reeves says "we want people to be better off" through more support to get into work.

    rachel reeves speaks to media
  7. What response does the chancellor have to people hit by cuts?published at 08:26 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Robinson asks Reeves for a response to disabled people affected by her benefit cuts yesterday.

    Reeves points to carer's allowance and says evidence shows that with more support and a higher national wage, people will have greater security and better pay in work.

    "We need to ensure the welfare system is sustainable and there for the long run," she says.

  8. 'I don't want people to lose money' - chancellorpublished at 08:24 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Nick Robinson pushes Reeves, telling her "you are making things worse" for people.

    Reeves disputes this.

    Reeves is then played a clip with comments from Steve, who has a brain injury. He says he will be £900 worse off, telling the BBC "that will be me homeless, there's no softening this blow", adding "that's quite terrifying."

    His comments are put to Reeves, who says when he is reassessed for Pip payments she wants him to be seen in person.

    At the moment, only one in 10 Pip claimants are seen in in person, and through seeing them in person they can assess his needs better, and people like Steve "will absolutely" get support.

    Robinson pushes back, again stating people will be losing money.

    "I don't want people to lose money," she says, which is why the government is pushing to get people back to work.

    reeves speaks to media
  9. What response does the chancellor have to disabled people facing cuts?published at 08:23 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    The chancellor is asked by Robinson about her choices: what would she say to around 370,000 disabled people who will lose on average £4,500 per year because of her plans for welfare cuts?

    Reeves responds that the welfare system isn't working properly, adding she wants to make sure sick and disabled people who want to work are supported to do so.

    "We've increased national living wage so that work pays... and yesterday we announced tailored support system to get people back into work," she says.

  10. Tax rises were necessary to address 'black hole', Reeves sayspublished at 08:21 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Reeves is asked about the £25bn in tax rises she introduced in the last Budget - has there been no impact? She says yes, a change to tax would have consequences.

    But there was "a blackhole" in the public finances, the chancellor says.

    Reeves says she had to make difficult decisions to put the public finances on a firm footing.

    They have reduced NHS waiting lists and there are thousands more appointments. That would not have been possible without tax rises, she says.

  11. Did your Budget lead to economic problems?published at 08:20 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Nick Robinson asks Reeves if her Budget last year has led to problems in the economy, making her pay the price for her own decisions.

    Reeves says there are global economic factors at play, including higher borrowing costs, which France and Germany are also feeling. She adds that European countries now have to spend more on defence, which also affects the economy.

    Robinson presses her on whether she believes her Budget has had no impact on the economy.

    She admits tax changes have consequences but urges Nick to consider the "cost of irresponsibility". She argues that if there is "an economic black hole", everyone will see the UK's finances on shaky ground, which would have serious consequences for the economy.

  12. Changing world 'eroded fiscal headroom'published at 08:16 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Reeves, who is joining the Today programme from Cardiff, is first asked: "What's gone wrong?"

    Reeves says nobody thinks the welfare state is working as it should be.

    She says her actions are about reforming the system, to get more people into work. Reeves says the world has changed since the autumn Budget and "eroded fiscal headroom".

    She says she has always been clear that she won't "play fast and loose with public finances," and says the government have restored headroom so they can be confident about the money they have to spend on public services.

  13. Next up from Reeves...published at 08:11 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves is about to speak on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, as she continues to face questions about her Spring Statement.

    Stay tuned, we'll bring you the key lines.

  14. UK negotiating 'intensively' on trade with US over the coming days, Reeves sayspublished at 08:03 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Media caption,

    Rachel Reeves UK in talks with US to carve out trade deal

    Reeves is pushed by Charlie on what a US tariff announcement means for the UK. Yesterday, the US announced that it would place 25% tariffs on any foreign-built vehicles imported to the country.

    An escalation of tariffs would be bad for the UK and the US, Reeves says. However, she says that the UK is in talks with the US to carve out a new deal. "Our economies are so closely intertwined", she says.

    She says the UK is negotiating with the US on trade "intensively" over the next few days, to secure a deal that will work for both countries. With that, her appearance on the show ends.

    We're expecting to hear more from Reeves on the Today programme soon. Stick with us.

  15. Chancellor says 'plan beginning to work' despite lower growth predictionpublished at 07:57 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Charlie Stayt says that growth is not as good as the chancellor had wanted to see, with it now expected to be just 1% this year.

    Inflation is also expected to go up this year, he says.

    The chancellor says that the world is changing, "but we're stepping up to the challenges." She says that the "Bank of England has had the confidence to cut the interest rates rates three times" since Labour formed government, with inflation data down last month and wages rising above inflation.

    "So our plan for change is beginning to work", she says.

    rachel reeves
  16. Supporting people to go back to work will 'make a difference', Reeves sayspublished at 07:53 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Reeves is asked what is the evidence she has that her plans will work the way she wants them to.

    She says that there is evidence that when people are supported to go back to work "we can make a difference".

    The chancellor says when people move from welfare to work they're twice as likely to come out of poverty, "and we need to make sure that happens".

    She says she doesn't want to deny people the opportunities to help their families make a good living.

  17. When will people start to feel better off?published at 07:47 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Asked when people will start to feel better off, Reeves says that wages are rising at twice the rate of inflation.

    The cost of living crisis is continuing to bite, she says, but she is focused on growing the economy to make people better off.

    She says that the forecasts show disposable incomes will rise.

    Media caption,

    Rachel Reeves: I'm not complacent about family finances

  18. Chancellor challenged on poverty numberspublished at 07:47 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    Reeves

    It's put to Rachel Reeves that "the government's own impact assessment says there will be 250,000 put in relative poverty by 2029, 50,000 of those children".

    "Those are your own figures," says BBC Breakfast's Charlie Stayt.

    Rachel Reeves says those figures are based on no changes with regard to people going back to work - she the government's investing £1bn into personalised tailored support to help people back into work.

    She says the government will work with the OBR ahead of the Budget to show how the plans to get people into workforce will work.

  19. The welfare system is not working, Reeves sayspublished at 07:41 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    The chancellor tells BBC Breakfast the government has increased taxes on the wealthy since being in power but the welfare system is not working.

    It is not encouraging people back into work, Reeves says.

    She points to one in eight young people being out of work, education or training. She says she is not willing to write them off, and will support them to get back into work.

  20. Coming up...published at 07:26 Greenwich Mean Time 27 March

    The BBC has been speaking with experts and politicians throughout the morning, as we continue to unpick the Spring Statement.

    At about 07:30 GMT, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will speak on BBC Breakfast. We'll be following her comments here, but you can follow along at home by clicking watch live at the top of the page.

    After that, we expect to hear from shadow chancellor Mel Stride on the programme around 08:30.

    Elsewhere on the BBC, Helen Whately, the Conservatives' shadow secretary of state for Work and Pensions, will speak on Radio 4's Today programme at 07:30. Directly after, the show will hear from Nadia Whittome, Labour MP for Nottingham East.

    The chancellor will speak to Today at about 08:10.

    rachel reevesImage source, PA Media