We're about to hear from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - a body of independent experts that effectively marks the government's homework.

Earlier on, it published its latest economic forecast - the key lines from which we've reported on further down this page.

Its chair, Richard Hughes, and committee members Prof David Miles and Tom Joseph are giving a news conference in central London.

We'll bring you updates and analysis - stay tuned.

While MPs discuss the Spring Statement in Parliament, a protest against cuts to welfare is going on directly outside.

Here are some of the latest images from the demonstration:

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

The Department for Work and Pensions' estimate of the impact of the cuts to welfare benefits – just published – is much larger than expected.

Overall, it estimates that by 2029/30 there will be 3.2 million families – some current recipients and some future recipients - who will financially lose as a result of this package, with an average loss of £1,720 per year once inflation is taken into account.

It suggests however that more people will win financially, with 3.8 million families - some current recipients and some future recipients – set to be on average £420 per year better off, after taking into account the impact of inflation.

Let's take a closer look at that growth forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (an independent group of economists and analysts which, basically, marks the government's homework).

In short, it revised its forecast down for this year, but revised it up for the next four years.

Here's how the OBR's October forecast compares to its forecast released today:

2025: down from 2% to 1%

2026: up from 1.8% to 1.9%

2027: up from 1.5% to 1.8%

2028: up from 1.5% to 1.7%

2029: up from 1.6% to 1.8%

Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter

The UK's tax share - which means how much HMRC brings in compared to the size of the overall economy - is forecast to hit its highest level since the end of World War Two, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts.

In its report, the forecaster reckons it will reach 37.7% of the economy by 2027/28.

This is partly because of the increase in employers' National Insurance contributions the government announced in October's Budget.

That figure, however, is highly speculative.

In totting up its calculations for the future, the OBR assumes that the government will implement a 5p rise on fuel duty - something previous governments have been loath to do.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

The additional changes to the welfare reforms that were announced last week do mean less in benefits than some may have anticipated.

For example, the government had said there would be a rise in the standard allowance for universal credit for 6.5 million people. That rise will now be £1 a week lower than previously billed.

The health element of universal credit (which reflects a limited capability to work) was going to be halved for new claimants to £50 a week in 2026-27, then frozen.

Now ministers have said that, in addition, existing claimants will see their entitlement frozen at £97 a week until 2029-30.

Reeves scores a win with the OBRpublished at 13:53 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

13:53 GMT 26 March

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

Image source, Getty Images

Rachel Reeves has had the awkward task of fronting a halving of growth forecasts calculate by the OBR for this year.

But the chancellor scored a victory by persuading them to assimilate an expectation of the results of her planning reform policies in their longer-term forecasts for growth.

That took some negotiation but added £15bn to the expectations of the economy’s income over 10 years - an assumption that eases some of the challenges for the public finances.

But, as ever, remember that forecasts are uncertain.

• Growth forecast halved: The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised down the UK's growth forecast for 2025 from 2% in the autumn to 1% today – a number Reeves says she’s “not satisfied with”. Longer term, however, the OBR says there will be GDP growth year on year until 2029/30
• Surplus forecast: Reeves said Labour is abiding by its self-imposed fiscal rules and moving from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025/26 to a surplus of £9.9bn by 2029/30 - adding that the Treasury will hit its target of bringing in more than it spends "two years ahead of schedule"
• Headroom restored: The OBR says Reeves has restored the government's headroom- which gives the chancellor leeway to cut taxes or increase spending in the future - by setting out cuts and reforms in today's statement
• Tories attack Reeves's record: Today’s numbers confirm that the UK is “poorer and weaker”, shadow chancellor Mel Stride told the Commons

• Welfare changes: Reeves said “it can’t be right” to write off an entire generation who are out of work and improperly using Personal Independence Payments (Pips)
• Defence spending: The government will spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027, which will be achieved by reducing overseas aid spending to 0.3% of gross national income. Reeves confirmed a £2.2bn funding boost for the Ministry of Defence from next year
• Inflation to tick up before falling back: The OBR predicted inflation would rise to an average of 3.2% next year, before the rate starts to fall. It is expected to reach the Bank of England's 2% target from 2027 onwards

While many countries are still waiting for US President Donald Trump to make up his mind about tariffs, the OBR has had a go at predicting what it would mean for the UK economy - and it's not pretty.

It says that if "global trade disputes escalate to include 20 percentage point rises in tariffs between the USA and the rest of the world", it could reduce economic growth by as much as 1%.

The OBR says that would more or less wipe out the surplus the government is predicted to have by 2029-30, reducing it "to almost zero".

Debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is set to fall in five years’ time, a report by the OBR says.

It means the chancellor will meet a key rule aimed at providing financial stability.

What are these self-imposed rules? One is that the government’s day-to-day costs are paid for with tax revenues, which means it cannot borrow to pay for running departments.

The other is that debt measured as a percentage of the economy is falling in the five years ahead.

As we mentioned a little earlier, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its fiscal outlook just as the chancellor finished delivering her Spring Statement.

Included is its altered prediction for the pace of prices rises in the UK from the autumn Budget.

Basically, it now thinks inflation will be higher in 2025 due to a peak in wholesale gas prices and higher oil prices.

But then inflation will be lower "as energy prices drop, food price inflation falls, and wage growth eases back," the OBR says.

The forecaster now thinks inflation in 2025 will average 3.2% before "falling rapidly" to 2.1% in 2026, and reaching the Bank of England's 2% target from 2027 onwards.

The OBR had previously said inflation would be 2.6% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027, finally falling to 2% in 2029.

Back now to shadow chancellor Mel Stride in the Commons, who asks how voters can "believe" the chancellor, ending his response to the Spring Statement by strongly criticising Reeves.

He accused the chancellor of reneging on promises not to increase borrowing or put up National Insurance, as well as to not hold more than one fiscal event a year.

The shadow chancellor says we are all "poorer" and "weaker" because of Reeves's policies, adding that she has made all the "wrong choices".

With that, Stride concludes his statement and sits down.

We'll bring you a recap of all the key moments from the Spring Statement shortly, before we turn to our crack team of correspondents for their quickfire analysis on what we've heard.

As Mel Stride continues to deliver his response, the government's official forecaster - the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - has published its fiscal predictions, some of which we've already heard from Rachel Reeves.

The OBR says the chancellor has restored the Treasury's “headroom” - which, in short, means how much leeway the government has to cut taxes or increase spending while still sticking to its self-imposed rules.

It says the £9.9bn surplus it generated in the autumn Budget would have been more than wiped out by interest payments on government debt, leading to a £4.1bn deficit by 2029/30.

But policy changes, including welfare reforms and cuts to day-to-day departmental spending, will “restore it to the £10bn surplus the chancellor had in October”, the OBR says

However, borrowing and debt are expected to be higher than previously forecast.

• Earlier, we explained what the OBR is, what it does and why it matters.

Image source, UK Parliament

Stride says Reeves has "tanked the economy" and claims the government fabricated the £22bn blackhole ministers say they found in the public finances when they took office.

Reeves is not ramping up taxes today, but Stride says this is "cold comfort" to people across the country.

He says people will still be "buckling" under taxes, which will be rising "to the highest tax burden... in the history of our country" due to previous policy announcements.

Stride asks Reeves to assure the country that she will not ramp up taxes further in the autumn.

Stride now turns to this morning's new inflation figures, which showed the rate at which everyday prices are rising fell to 2.8%.

He says the current level is twice what it was forecast to be under the Conservatives, and blames Reeves. Households and businesses will pay the price, he adds.

Stride says the OBR also says unemployment is forecast to rise despite the government's plans to get people back to work.

• For context: While the inflation rate of 2.8% is still above the Bank of England's 2% target, this morning's announcement was cautiously welcomed by ministers as some analysts expected it to increase.

Image source, UK Parliament

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride responds to the Spring Statement for the Conservatives.

He says that Reeves promised to bring "stability" to public finances, but this speech amounts to an "emergency budget".

Stride says the UK was once growing at the fastest rate in the G7 but growth forecasts have been halved - "cut in two as a consequence of decisions and choices" by Reeves, he adds.

The world is changing, Reeves says again.

"We can see that and we can feel it. A changing world demands a government that is on the side of working people," she goes on.

She says the government's plan to get Britain building will drive growth in the economy and put more money in people’s pockets.

And that's a wrap on her Spring Statement - over now to shadow chancellor Mel Stride for his response. Stay with us.

Reeves now says that the OBR has confirmed that real household disposable income will grow "at almost twice the rate" that had been anticipated in the autumn.

The independent analysts say households will be on average £500 better off under this government, Reeves tells the Commons

Reeves says "this is just the start" and that the OBR has upgraded its growth forecast next year and "every single year thereafter".

The Commons is filled with noise at this announcement.

The figures she outlines are as follows: GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029.

By the end of the decade, the economy is expected to be larger than had been predicted by the OBR's when it produced forecasts ahead of the Budget last October.

On education, Reeves says that earlier this week the education secretary announced more than £600m to train up to 60,000 more construction workers.

This includes 10 new technical excellence colleges across every region of the country, she adds.