Summary

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies is warning that the chances of Reeves meeting her fiscal rules are "a coin toss"

  • The think tank says that more tax rises might come in the Autumn Budget, with director Paul Johnson saying: "there's a good chance that economic ... forecasts will deteriorate"

  • The warning comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK is speaking to the US to try and make a deal that would avoid the implementation of 25% tariffs on cars and car parts

  • Earlier, the government's forecaster halved its growth projection for the year to 2025 and warned Reeves that UK and global economic uncertainty could derail her plans

  • The chancellor says there will be a £9.9bn surplus in day-to-day spending in five years but the OBR says it is a "very small margin" and risks are heightened by "significant uncertainty" in the UK and global economy

  • How could the Spring Statement affect you? Our cost of living correspondent breaks down the changes

Media caption,

Rachel Reeves asked if she has concerns about Trump's car tariffs

  1. Chancellor touts Labour's planning reformspublished at 13:06 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves says the planning system that Labour inherited was "far too slow".

    She says that the OBR has assessed that Labour's planning reforms "will lead to housebuilding reaching a forty year high".

    Changes to the national planning policy alone, she adds, will help build over 1.3 million homes in the UK within the next five years.

    This will take Labour within "touching distance" of its promise to build 1.5 million homes in England this parliament, she says.

    reevesImage source, UK Parliament
  2. OBR says planning reforms will grow economy - Reevespublished at 13:05 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Growth will take hard yards, Reeves says.

    In her first week as chancellor, she announced the government was pursuing the most ambitious set of planning reforms in decades.

    Reeves says the OBR has today concluded these reforms will permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30 - which amounts to an additional £6.8bn in the UK economy - and by 0.4% over the next 10 years.

    Reeves says this is the "biggest positive growth impact that the OBR have ever reflected in their forecast, for a policy with no fiscal cost".

  3. Chancellor outlines plans for defence spending increasepublished at 13:03 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Following her announcement on defence spending, the chancellor outlines the actions the government will take with this additional investment.

    She says she wants the "whole country" to feel the benefits.

    A minimum of 10% of the Ministry of Defence's equipment budget will be spent on new technologies including drones and AI-enabled technology, Reeves says

    Areas like Glasgow, Derby and Newport will see advanced manufacturing production with new business opportunities and creating more demand for skilled jobs.

    She confirms plans for investment in Barrow - a town in north-west England where the UK's nuclear submarines are maintained - in order to create thousands of jobs in the area.

    reevesImage source, UK Parliament
  4. Reeves confirms £2.2bn boost for defence next yearpublished at 13:01 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March
    Breaking

    A changing world presents challenges and new opportunities, Reeves says.

    The chancellor announces she will provide an additional £2.2bn in spending for the Ministry of Defence next year, because they have to act quickly in a "changing world".

    We already knew the government planned to ramp up defence spending, but now Reeves has set out what that will look like in the short-term.

  5. Chancellor insists 2% inflation target will be reached by 2027published at 13:01 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Turning to the impact of uncertainty on the economy, Reeves says the government must work closely with the Bank of England.

    She says this means working with the independent Monetary Policy Committee "in their work to meet the 2% inflation target".

    Having peaked at 11% under the Tories, Reeves suggests that inflation will hit its 2% target by 2027.

    She says this will give the economy "the stable platform it needs to grow".

    reevesImage source, UK Parliament
  6. Capital spending gets average boost of £2bn a yearpublished at 12:59 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves says she is increasing capital spending by an average of £2bn a year compared to the autumn.

    She says that is needed to drive growth in the economy and to meet vital defence commitments.

  7. Analysis

    Growth halved for 2025published at 12:59 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Simon Jack
    Business editor

    As expected, the chancellor says the OBR has slashed its growth forecast for the coming year in half from 2% to 1% - still more optimistic than Bank of England at 0.7%.

    Interestingly, she didn't list the growth numbers for rest of the period as chancellors usually do.

    We will have to wait for the OBR release in a few minutes but cutting next year in half should mechanically make later years easier to grow.

  8. OBR revises down UK growth forecast to 1% - Reevespublished at 12:57 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March
    Breaking

    The OBR has revised down the UK's growth forecast for 2025 from 2% in the autumn to 1% today.

    "I am not satisfied with these numbers," she says - but she adds the government is "serious about taking the action needed to grow our economy".

  9. Chancellor announces £3.25bn boost to public service reformpublished at 12:57 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves says she is bringing forward £3.25bn of investment to deliver reforms to public services via a new so-called transformation fund.

    It will bring down the costs of running the government by the end of the decade, she says.

    Reeves tells the Commons the first allocations from this fund will go to voluntary exit schemes to reduce the size of the civil service.

    It will also be used to invest in AI tools, technology improvements for the Ministry of Justice's probation services and up-front investment to support children in foster care.

    Ultimately, this work will help deliver a further £3.5bn of day-to-day savings by 2029-30, Reeves says.

  10. Analysis

    Unexpected freeze to benefit claimantspublished at 12:56 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Dearbail Jordan
    Business reporter

    Reeves has confirmed that welfare benefits will be cut by £4.8bn but it looks like the government has had to find other areas to reduce costs.

    The chancellor has said that the Universal Credit Health element will be cut by 50% and then frozen for new claimants - last week, we were not expecting that freeze.

  11. State can be 'leaner, more agile' under Labour planspublished at 12:55 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves says in recent months the government has "begun to fundamentally reform the British state" to make it more efficient and productive.

    She outlines previous policy announcements, such as plans to abolish the arms-length body NHS England, which ministers say will allow them to improve the health service more quickly.

    She says the government is taking forward work to "significantly reduce the costs of running government" by 15%, or £2bn, by the end of the decade. These are the civil service cuts we've heard about in recent days.

    The state can be "leaner and more agile", Reeves adds.

    ReevesImage source, UK Parliament
  12. Reeves confirms defence spending boost and aid cutpublished at 12:54 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    The chancellor confirms two steps we've known for several weeks the government was going to take.

    Defence spending will increase to 2.5% of GDP - a hike which will be acchieved by cutting overseas aid to 0.3% of gross national income.

    Reeves says the aid cut will save £2.6bn in day-to-day spending in 2029-30, allowing the government to invest in defence spending.

  13. Welfare reforms to save £3.4bn, Reeves confirmspublished at 12:53 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves says welfare spending as a share of GDP will fall between 2026-27 and the end of the decade.

    The total savings from the package will be £3.4bn, she says, citing a forecast from the OBR.

    As we've been reporting this morning, the Treasury originally indicated these changes would save £5bn, but the OBR said those calculations were overly optimistic.

  14. Reeves announces changes to Universal Credit paymentspublished at 12:51 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Media caption,

    Reeves: Labour is the party of work

    Labour is the party of work, Reeves says. She goes on to say that if you can work, you should - and if you can't you should be supported.

    She then refers to the OBR statement today which estimates her package will save £4.8bn in the welfare budget.

    The chancellor adds that the Universal Credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in the financial year 2025/26 to £106 per week by 2029/30.

    However, the Universal Credit health element will be "cut by 50% and then frozen for new claimants".

  15. Chancellor announces further tax evasion crackdownpublished at 12:49 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    As both sides of the the Commons either cheer or jeer, Reeves moves on to pledging a further crackdown on tax evasion.

    She says there will be no tax increases as a result, but adds that when working people are paying their taxes, it is not right others are avoiding doing so.

    The Treasury will set out plans today that will "increase the number of tax fraudsters charged each year by 20%".

    Reeves says these changes will take the total revenue raised from reducing tax evasion to £7.5bn, figures the chancellor says have been verified by the OBR.

    reevesImage source, UK Parliament
  16. 'Investment rule' will also be met two years early - Reevespublished at 12:47 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves says the OBR has forecast that her investment rule is also met two years early.

    Net financial debt is forecast to be 82.9% of GDP in 2025-26 and 83.5% in 2026-27, before falling to 82.7% in 2029-30, she says.

    That provides headroom - in other words, spare cash the government can spend on other priorities at a later date - of £15.1bn by the end of the decade, she says.

  17. Reeves outlines a £14bn 'repair job' after borrowing costs hit Treasurypublished at 12:46 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Faisal Islam
    Economics editor

    The chancellor has announced that the key fiscal rule would have been missed by £4bn due to the rises in what it costs for the government to borrow money.

    Her measures reverse that and reinstate the room for manoeuvre - which, at the time of the Budget last autumn, was forecast to be £9.9bn.

    So the total correction - or repair job - in this statement is about £14bn by the end of the Parliament in 2029/30.

  18. Increased borrowing costs put budget rules at risk - Reevespublished at 12:44 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves continues to speak about her own fiscal rules and repeats that changes in the global economy have altered the picture since the Budget in October.

    She says that, according to the OBR's forecast, the current budget would have been in deficit by £4.1bn in 2029-30. Last autumn, it was forecast to be in surplus by £9.9bn in the autumn.

    The chancellor says that due to her steps today she has "restored in full our headroom" - in other words, she has found a way to save the money which was being eaten up by the rising cost of borrowing money.

    She says this means moving from a deficit of £36.1bn in 2025-26 to a surplus £9.9bn by 2029-30. The forecasts indicate the budget will be in surplus two years ahead of schedule, Reeves adds.

    reevesImage source, UK Parliament
  19. Analysis

    Chancellor has practical support from party - but some unhappy with her cutspublished at 12:42 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Damian Grammaticas
    Political correspondent

    As the chancellor stands to speak she’s flanked by all the holders of the "Great Offices of State".

    There’s the prime minister, who was of course here for PMQs, the home secretary, and the foreign secretary. On top of that we have the deputy prime minister, the work and pensions secretary and others.

    Moral support definitely. But also practical support too from the Labour backbenches who cheered as Keir Starmer says he has full confidence in his chancellor.

    Some Labour MPs, however, are unhappy at the welfare cuts she’s pursuing, and the fact this statement today will go even further than what was announced last week.

    The government insists this is important not just to make sure the welfare system is sustainable in future and but also as it’s right to who can into work.

    And the chancellor is arguing, the world is presenting new challenges, which she has to rise to.

  20. Reeves reminds Commons of her own budget-setting rulespublished at 12:41 Greenwich Mean Time 26 March

    Reeves tells the Commons again that she's sticking to her fiscal rules - the guidelines she has pledged to stick to while deciding how to spend taxpayers' money.

    The first is balancing the budget by 2029/30, so that day-to-day spending is met by tax receipts, she says. In other words, that the government can pay its regular bills without having to borrow money,

    The second is that net financial debt falls by the end of the forecast period to 2029/30.