Summary

  • The latest UK inflation figures show prices have risen 11.1% in the year to October, up from 10.1% the previous month

  • Energy bills and the cost of food - especially basics like low-fat milk, pasta and butter - are the main things pushing up the cost of living

  • The UK is seeing its highest inflation for 41 years, a figure not seen since October 1981

  • But prices are rising even faster for the poorest households - by more than 16% for the families who spend the least

  • The rising cost of living has been driven partly by energy costs and the Ukraine war but also factors such as the cost of raw materials

  • It all comes a day before Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announces tax changes and spending cuts in the Autumn statement, with warnings of a UK recession to come

  • BBC News is in Gloucester today hearing how people are coping with the spiralling cost of living and economic pressures

  1. Summing up today's developmentspublished at 18:11 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    As we sign off at the end of a busy day, here's a look back at the key developments:

    • At 07:00 the Office for National Statistics announced that inflation in the year to October had risen to a 41-year high of 11.1%
    • Price rises were largely driven by rising fuel, energy and food costs
    • Food inflation stands at 16.2%, with the cost of essential items like milk, pasta and butter soaring
    • The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told MPs that the UK economy had been subject to a "series of shocks" since the coronavirus pandemic, but that it expects prices will fall once this winter is over
    • Some analysts said there could be a glimmer of hope with some goods - aside from energy and food - rising at a more stable rate

    You can read more on what we've learned today about inflation here.

    There's sure to be much more discussion about the rising cost of living tomorrow, when Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Autumn Statement. You can join us then for more explanation, analysis and answers to your questions.

    Today's live coverage was written by Rachel Russell and Lora Jones. It was edited by Chris Giles, Andrew Humphrey, and Jasmine Taylor-Coleman.

  2. Your Questions Answered

    Is tomorrow's Autumn Statement aimed at international markets?published at 16:39 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Marjorie also asks whether tomorrow's Autumn Statement from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is likely to be aimed at international markets?

    To a degree, yes. We saw what damage was caused (in terms of government borrowing costs) as a result of the previous chancellor's mini-budget.

    This chancellor will want to restore credibility. That is one reason why the Office for Budget Responsibility is involved.

    Yet, there is more to the Autumn Statement than just market reassurance.

    For example, the government says it is focused on bringing down the rate of inflation. Measures such as, perhaps, a cap on domestic energy prices after April are central to that ambition.

  3. 'Tricky decisions to make'published at 16:32 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Zoe Conway
    BBC employment correspondent

    Stephen Fern, finance director at 200 Degrees Coffee
    Image caption,

    Stephen Fern of 200 Degrees Coffee says business costs are rising but they are still trying to support stuff

    Stephen Fern is a finance director at 200 Degrees Coffee in Nottingham and has been discussing the knock-on effect of rising costs where he works.

    It is a chain of 15 independent coffee shops with an online shop, wholesale and subscriptions business.

    He gave his staff a 5% pay rise in April but thinks it is unlikely he will be able to give further rises this year or next April because of rising costs.

    Instead, there is a support fund that staff can apply to anonymously for a grant of £350.

    The decision is based on their situation, for example if they are lower paid, have seen their mortgage payments increase or have children.

    The company also offers loans to staff.

    "We all know how utilities have gone up, about 200% for us as a business, our green bean costs are up about 25%," he said.

    "There's wage inflation and our other consumables which have gone up between 10% and 15%.

    "Throw that all into the mix and we've got some tricky decisions to make.

    "But as a business we do our utmost to make sure we give our staff the increases they need to live a life where they can afford basics like food and energy costs."

  4. Your Questions Answered

    Why won't MPs and MSPs take a pay cut?published at 16:19 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Robert asks: Since we are supposed to be in this together, why are MPs and MSPs not taking a cut in salary?

    MPs received a 2.7% pay rise in April – although the prime minister at the time, Boris Johnson, and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said MPs should not get a rise. We do not know yet what MPs will receive in April 2023.

    Their pay is actually set by an independent body, which said it should be in line with other public sector workers.

    That highlights a critical issue that the government will need to address – public sector pay rises. With inflation so high, what kind of salary increase should nurses, teachers and the armed forces receive?

    Ministers receive recommendations from pay review bodies, external, but there is an expectation of ongoing, widespread pay disputes.

  5. Your Questions Answered

    What was the cause of high inflation 41 years ago?published at 16:07 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Young people protesting youth unemployment in London in 1981Image source, Getty Images
    Image caption,

    Young people protesting youth unemployment in London in 1981

    Susan says politicians all claim that it's the aftermath of the pandemic and the Russian war on Ukraine that's causing the highest inflation for 41 years. She wants to know what caused the high inflation 41 years ago.

    Would you believe the inflation rate was actually on its way down in 1981?

    Oil shocks and wage demands had pushed up prices in the late 1970s and into the 1980s.

    In 1981, interest rates were very high, as was unemployment, and the UK was in recession.

    Do we have a specific set of issues this time? Yes.

    Are there lessons to learn from back then? Probably so.

  6. Your Questions Answered

    How high could interest rates go in the UK?published at 15:54 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    John asks how high interest rates could go in the UK, and if they could make matters worse if costs are going up because of factors outside of the Bank of England's control.

    I won’t be making any forecasts, but the Bank of England has suggested that interest rates could peak at about 4.5% next autumn.

    Remember, the Bank rate went up to 3% earlier this month. The good news is that that is lower than the 6% markets had recently forecast it could eventually go up to.

    The more it rises, the more expensive many people’s mortgages, loans and credit card repayments become.

    John has absolutely nailed the tricky balancing act needed here. The Bank does not want to slow the economy too much and extend the recession.

    You can read more about how interest rates affect the cost of living and people's finances here.

  7. Your Questions Answered

    How does raising interest rates help fight inflation?published at 15:42 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Marjorie asks how the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates helps fight inflation, when it is largely being driven up by the costs of basic goods such as food and energy bills going up.

    There is a lot of debate about this very point.

    Inflation is certainly being driven by costs – particularly energy – rather than booming demand from consumers.

    Yet, it is being tackled by conventional means, like rising interest rates to make borrowing more expensive and dampen demand.

    But the Bank of England has relatively few weapons in its armoury, which is why tomorrow’s Autumn Statement from the government – and the policies that are in it - are so important.

  8. Your questions answeredpublished at 15:38 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    As we all grapple with the cost of living, the BBC's experts are providing support and advice on saving money.

    We're now joined by cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey who will be answering your questions on rising prices.

    We'll also be answering your questions tomorrow after the Autumn Statement.

    Get in touch by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk, external or WhatsApp us on +44 7756 165803.

    BBC Your Questions Answered graphicImage source, .
  9. Could inflation fall back soon?published at 15:30 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Interest rates have risen sharply as the Bank of England continues to use its powers to tackle soaring prices.

    Speaking alongside his deputy and two independent members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Governor Andrew Bailey has told MPs that he expects to see interest rates fall dramatically, once this winter is out of the way.

    "Once we get through this winter, because of the way the gas price effects are going to work through this winter, there should be quite a pronounced fall in inflation thereafter," he says.

    He adds that the Bank's forecast says that inflation, which measures how the cost of living changes over time, shows that it will even drop below its target of 2%.

    Read more about how the Bank of England uses interest rates to control the cost of living here.

  10. Why is the UK struggling more than other countries?published at 15:09 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Andrew Bailey tells the Treasury committee that, unfortunately, "it is not a good story" on where the UK ranks in terms of economic growth in comparison with other big countries.

    The UK is the only major economy in the G7 group of countries not to have recovered in full the chunk of the economy lost during the pandemic.

    UK economic growth compared with other G7 countries

    He says there are a few factors behind the "dramatic difference", like how various countries have decided to provide help on energy bills.

    The fact that there are, historically, a very high number of job vacancies in the UK while the unemployment rate remains low is also contributing, he says.

    Read more from our Economics Editor Faisal Islam on what's behind these figures here.

  11. Governor would 'politely decline' a pay risepublished at 14:57 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Andrew Bailey

    Next up, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is asked by MPs about the prospect of a "spiral" created by big increases in salaries to meet rising prices pushing up costs even further.

    He previously drew criticism for suggesting that workers should not be asking for big pay rises to try and stop high prices from becoming "ingrained".

    He says speaking to businesses up and down the country, he's hearing that they are often using one-off payments to help workers deal with the rising cost of living, instead of permanent pay increases.

    He is also asked how much pay is being increased at the Bank of England this year. Although he says this is still being settled, he says he wants lower-paid staff to get more help.

    He adds he would "politely decline" a pay rise if he was offered one, as he did in previous years.

    According to the Bank of England, external, the governor received more than £597,500 in the 2021-22 financial year, including his base salary and payments for things like pension contributions.

  12. With hindsight things might have been different - Bank of Englandpublished at 14:39 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is currently answering questions from MPs on the Commons Treasury Committee.

    The Bank of England has a target of keeping inflation to 2% and politicians have pointedly asked: "What’s gone wrong with your forecast modelling?"

    Bailey argues that making predictions on where the cost of living would go one year ago, when the furlough scheme was coming to an end and the impact on jobs was unclear, was very difficult.

    He points out that the UK economy has suffered several "supply shocks", including supply chain issues in the fall-out from Covid, a very tight labour market in the UK and the war in Ukraine.

    "It was a very difficult call to make this time last year... with the benefit of hindsight, obviously things would have been different."

    He added: "If we had only had one supply shock, I think the response to that would be very different, where we’ve had this series of supply shocks."

  13. 'Business is better for us because people are shopping locally'published at 14:20 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Sarah Dickins
    BBC Wales Economics Correspondent

    Melanie Jenkins
    Image caption,

    Melanie Jenkins suggests rising costs have meant customers have been shopping more locally at her branch

    The rising cost of petrol means customers are shopping more locally in a bid to save cash, according to CK Foodstores, based in Llanelli in south west Wales.

    Many of its 33 stores are in smaller towns like Pontyberem, where Melanie Jenkins is manager.

    "I thought people are struggling, prices are going up for everything, but for us it's better," she told BBC News.

    "Our takings are up because a lot of local people would rather shop locally than drive to Llanelli or Carmarthen to buy from the big stores because its costing them more petrol."

    She says she is also getting more job applications for vacancies at the stores because applicants are conscious of transport and petrol costs going up.

  14. Martin Lewis: Inflation dropping does not mean prices droppingpublished at 14:09 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Martin Lewis, campaigner and founder of Money Saving Expert, has been on Radio 5Live this afternoon explaining an important point - that when inflation does eventually go down, that does not mean prices will go down too.

    "Inflation is the measure of price increases, so let's take some very simple numbers," he said.

    "If you bought something that cost £100 a year ago, and you got 10% inflation, that means it will cost £110 this year.

    "If inflation drops to 5% it means next year the same item will cost £115.50."

    Talking about tomorrow's Autumn Statement, he predicted that fiscal drag - freezing tax thresholds so people pay more - would be one of the main measures.

    He also said he expects governmental department spending cuts and he will be listening for an update on the government's energy price guarantee, which is due to end in April.

  15. 'You can't cut back on nothing'published at 13:57 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Jane in Pershore, Worcestershire, is a single mum to four children, having left a domestic violence situation, and says she's finding the cost of living "really difficult".

    Speaking to Radio 5 Live, Jane says she previously owned her own business but is currently not able to work because one of her sons is disabled and her wage wouldn't cover the cost of his care.

    The family have already cut their costs as much as possible, using solar lights and adding extra duvets to beds instead of turning on the heating.

    When asked if she is able to cut back any more, Jane says: "You can't cut back on nothing.

    "We've cut back to the bare basics and have done this for the last 12 months... Sometimes I can't afford to drive my car to hospital appointments for my son, so we're missing those at the moment."

  16. Could outlook for businesses be more rosy?published at 13:33 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Some experts have suggested that the latest official figures on prices appear to show two stories under way in the UK economy.

    Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said that because of the rising cost of essential items, less well-off families are "unfairly getting hit much harder, with the inflation gap between high and low-income households reaching the widest since March 2009".

    We reported earlier that the poorest households are seeing inflation up to 16% - much higher than the 11.1% average.

    However, Scholar suggests that the picture for businesses looks more "rosy".

    Producer input prices rose by 19.2% in the year to October, down from 20.8% the month before, as the rising costs of raw materials started to ease, and leading to some manufacturers raising their own prices at a slower rate.

    She described it has, hopefully, the beginning of "an encouraging trajectory", with the price rises for metals, crude oil and chemicals slowing down.

  17. 'It feels like I can only live and eat'published at 13:19 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Jamie Moreland
    Reporting from Gloucester

    Kye Bourne
    Image caption,

    Kye wants to save enough money to train as a pilot

    With prices going up and wages not keeping pace with the cost of living, many young people around the UK are having to make sacrifices.

    BBC News has been hearing from under-25s in Gloucester, in south west England, about managing their money - and staying positive.

    Kye Bourne is a 20-year-old care leaver looking for work. He's currently trying to find his own place to live too, but says he is worried about how he is going to pay the bills when he does.

    "It feels like I can only live and eat. I've stopped drinking alcohol and stopped using Netflix and Spotify subscriptions," he says.

    "I also answer surveys on the internet for a bit of extra cash. It helps a huge amount, an extra £40 a month."

    But he's feeling optimistic overall, with dreams of becoming an airline pilot once he has saved enough to find his licence.

    "It's kind of rough but I've got hope," he adds.

    Read more from Jamie Moreland on how young people in Gloucester are coping with the rising cost of living here.

  18. Cost increases 'go down the chain'published at 13:04 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Peter Ruddick
    Business reporter

    Richard Cornock
    Image caption,

    Richard Cornock is a dairy farmer in Gloucestershire

    Milk prices were one of the biggest risers in today’s food inflation figures but it doesn’t necessarily mean good news for producers.

    I spoke to Richard Cornock, a dairy farmer in Gloucestershire, and he told me the price he gets for milk is determined by his major buyer.

    At the same time he’s having to contend with much higher diesel and fertiliser prices - all costs that he has to absorb.

    “I can’t go to [my milk buyer] and say I need another 5p a litre because they’ll just go, ‘well, we haven’t budgeted for that.'"

    He added: "They have been quite responsive to the increase in costs but that’s why the public see massive increases in dairy products when they go to the supermarket: because of the increased costs to me which then go down the chain.”

  19. Matter of timing for saverspublished at 12:52 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    We tend to discuss savers a lot when the Bank of England makes its decisions about interest rates.

    However, it is well worth considering the impact of rising prices on savings too.

    Money set aside in savings accounts loses some of its buying power when inflation is high. In other words, when it comes to spending money which has been saved, then it buys less.

    While interest rates paid by providers have been rising to the highest levels seen for years, they still do not match the rate of inflation.

    Savers wanting to lock money away for a longer period will also want to get their timing right. Of course, there is never any certainty about knowing when savings rates have peaked.

  20. Cost of inflation felt at the supermarket tillpublished at 12:41 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Colletta Smith
    Cost of living correspondent

    Aldi basket contents

    I’ve been conducting a very unscientific experiment for Radio 4’s PM programme by buying the same 10 basic items in Aldi almost every month since May, and yesterday’s bill was another increase.

    My shopping list of exactly the same bread, pizza, chips, loo roll, eggs, potatoes, sugar, oats, cornflakes, and nappies has gone up from £14.20 in May to £16.29 yesterday. That’s a 14.7% rise in just six months.

    It gives a real sense of what we’re all facing at the tills, wherever you shop, and also gives a little glimpse into what the November figures will show us when they are published next month. If anyone was hoping for a reduction in food inflation then it doesn’t seem like it’s happening just yet.