Summary

  • The latest UK inflation figures show prices have risen 11.1% in the year to October, up from 10.1% the previous month

  • Energy bills and the cost of food - especially basics like low-fat milk, pasta and butter - are the main things pushing up the cost of living

  • The UK is seeing its highest inflation for 41 years, a figure not seen since October 1981

  • But prices are rising even faster for the poorest households - by more than 16% for the families who spend the least

  • The rising cost of living has been driven partly by energy costs and the Ukraine war but also factors such as the cost of raw materials

  • It all comes a day before Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announces tax changes and spending cuts in the Autumn statement, with warnings of a UK recession to come

  • BBC News is in Gloucester today hearing how people are coping with the spiralling cost of living and economic pressures

  1. Economic stability and confidence at heart of government agenda - Sunakpublished at 08:50 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    The PM goes on to say that his government is pursuing policies to return the UK - and other global economies - to growth, by instilling "economic stability and confidence".

    Sunak says the Autumn Statement tomorrow will provide a plan to "get the country on a positive trajectory, put the public finances on the right footing and get debt falling".

    And he goes on to say he will build a global platform "to enable the United Kingdom to thrive" and give people in the country "the certainty they need".

  2. Households across the world hit by punishing price rises, says Sunakpublished at 08:41 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022
    Breaking

    Rishi Sunak

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is addressing UK inflation in a news conference from the G20 summit in Bali.

    Sunak blamed Russia's invasion of Ukraine for global inflation, saying two-thirds of G20 countries had seen yearly price rises in excess of 7%.

    This, he says, is part of the "cruel and unrelenting reality of Putin's war" leaving people around the world "hit by punishing price rises and facing an uncertain future".

  3. What is inflation like in other countries?published at 08:39 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    It's not just us - other countries around the world are also experiencing a cost of living squeeze.

    The annual inflation rate for European countries that use the euro has provisionally been estimated as 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% in September.

    Many of the reasons are the same - increased energy costs in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, shortages of goods and materials, and the fallout from Covid

    In Germany, Europe's biggest importer of Russian gas, the Federal Statistical Office recently said prices had reached a high not seen since reunification in 1990.

    Meanwhile in France, food prices pushed its inflation rate to 6.2% in October.

    In the US, the rise in the cost of living dropped to 7.7% in October, which was lower than economists expected and a welcome sign that prices might have started easing there.

    Read more on what exactly inflation means and how it is measured here.

  4. 'No stretch left' in people's budgetspublished at 08:23 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Woman shopping at supermarketImage source, Getty Images

    One charity, which runs the National Debtline, has warned that many people have "no stretch left" in their budgets with prices rising and wages not going up as fast.

    Joanna Elson, the boss of the Money Advice Trust, called on the chancellor to "support those most in need this winter" and commit to increasing benefits with the rising cost of living.

    “These difficulties are not going away any time soon, however, and it is likely that support for the hardest hit will need to continue beyond the next few months. It is also vital that people are able to access the advice and support they need at this time," she said.

    If you want to find out more about what help you can get with bills, or how to save money on your food shop, you can visit our dedicated Cost of Living page here.

  5. Analysis

    Things will remain tough in the coming monthspublished at 08:09 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Faisal Islam
    Economics editor

    October was always going to be a very tough month for figures on the cost of living.

    Despite the Energy Price Guarantee, inflation at 11.1% is at a 41-year high. Without the guarantee, which limits the rise of typical bills to £2,500, it could have been more like 13%.

    But consumers don’t need to be told how wide ranging this is, with food price inflation up again to the highest rate in 45 years, driven by the cost of things like milk and cheese.

    Things will remain tough in the coming months, with the full social effect of these energy bills not yet seen because of a mild winter so far.

    And yet in global markets there are the smallest signs that the initial reasons behind the spike in inflation a year ago, post-pandemic supply chain problems, are starting to turn. The more relaxed approach to China’s "zero Covid" lockdowns has also meant there is some light at the end of the tunnel about prices.

    This figure should be the peak, but we have been at this point before.

    Energy remains tough, but much will depend on tomorrow's announcements from the chancellor at his Autumn Statement. So prices will stay very high for a few months at least, as it takes some time for these global factors to feed into everyday prices.

    BBC graph showing inflation soaring since 2021Image source, .
  6. 'Sometimes I've not eaten all day to cut the cost'published at 08:00 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Jamie Moreland
    Reporting from Gloucester

    Charlotte Louise Latouche

    Charlotte Louise Latouche lives in shared accommodation in Gloucester, in south west England, and receives benefits.

    The 29-year-old has autism, mental health issues and physical disabilities.

    “My biggest concern is food because if I don’t lose weight, I’ll die earlier than normal," she explains.

    Charlotte says having a healthy diet is expensive and she’s had to use food banks.

    “It makes you feel degraded and embarrassed. I know I look big, but sometimes I’ve not eaten all day to cut the cost”, she says.

    She uses a smart meter to track her bills but struggles to keep it on budget.

    “I can’t afford to heat the house. I’m using the air fryer and putting on warmer clothes, but the meter still goes into the red and I don’t understand.”

    With winter coming, she worries about costs rising more.

    “This Christmas I’m not able to get anyone anything, it makes me feel like a failure. I would love to have a full-time job, but I can’t because of my disabilities”, Charlotte says.

    “Even when I’ve paid my bills and look on my bank balance, this is unfair. Why is this happening to me? Why am I being punished?”

  7. Why prices continue to soar - explainedpublished at 07:56 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the Office for National Statistics, has been explaining how inflation has risen quite so much.

    “Rising gas and electricity prices drove headline inflation to its highest level for over 40 years, despite the Energy Price Guarantee," he said.

    “Over the past year, gas prices have climbed nearly 130% while electricity has risen by around 66%.

    “Increases across a range of food items also pushed up inflation."

    He added: “These were partially offset by motor fuels, where average petrol prices fell on the month, while the price for diesel rose taking the disparity in price between the two fuels to the highest on record."

  8. What is inflation?published at 07:51 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    As we're talking about inflation this morning, let's remind you how it all works. Inflation is the increase in price of something over time.

    For example, if a loaf of bread costs £1 one year and £1.10 the next year then that would mean bread inflation is 10%.

    In the UK, this is worked out by the Office for National Statistics, which notes the prices of hundreds of everyday items, known as the "basket of goods", external.

    The ONS releases its inflation figures each month, showing how much these prices have risen since the same date last year. This is known as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).

    Every month a figure is released, estimating how much prices are rising overall - it was 11.1% in the 12 months to October, a big rise from September's 10.1%.

    The Bank of England is expected to keep raising interest rates to try to control it.

    You can read more about inflation here.

  9. Families incredibly worried about latest figures - Labourpublished at 07:47 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

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    Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has commented on the latest figures, saying that the latest jump in the cost of living would leave families "incredibly worried".

    Ahead of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement tomorrow, where he will set out the latest government plans for spending and potential tax increases, she argued that a Labour government would "secure" the economy.

  10. Inflation above 16% for the poorest householdspublished at 07:37 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Robert Cuffe
    Head of statistics

    The ONS estimates that prices are rising even faster for the poorest households - by more than 16% for the families who spend the least.

    That’s because food and energy, whose prices are driving the rises in the cost of living, take up a little under half of their spending (compared to about a third for those in the middle).

    Economists often define the bottom fifth on the basis of how much you spend rather than how much you bring in because some wealthy people can have very short periods of no income (say, between jobs). So defining the poorest by spending gives a better picture of who’s really struggling.

    They’ve also calculated the figures for retired households (slightly lower than the average at 10.7% compared with nearly 13% for non-retired households) and for renters (9.1%).

    Everyone is facing different price rises depending on what they spend their money on. You can see more with our personal inflation calculator.

  11. Food inflation highest since 1977published at 07:33 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Food inflation chart

    We've all noticed prices going up at the tills already, and the latest official figures show that UK households have been hit by the biggest rise in food prices in 45 years.

    Prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks went up by 16.2% in the year to October, up from 14.5% the month before, according to the Office of National Statistics.

    The ONS explained that milk, cheese and eggs saw a big increase in the shops in particular.

    The BBC has been working on a range of resources that can help us all tackle the rising cost of living. Click here for ideas on how to put together £1 meals, avoiding unnecessary ingredients and helping you manage your budget.

  12. Inflation figures are backdrop to tomorrow's Autumn statementpublished at 07:30 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Nick Eardley
    Chief political correspondent

    These huge inflation figures are the backdrop to everything the government will announce tomorrow.

    The prime minister has said this week that fighting inflation is his number one priority.

    Higher prices squeeze household incomes and the Treasury believes that makes economic growth harder to achieve.

    The chancellor’s Autumn Statement tomorrow will involve increasing taxes and squeezing spending to try and get the economy back on track.

    But Labour is arguing this morning that the government has left the UK exposed to shocks through “12 years of economic failure”.

  13. Jeremy Hunt promises to drive down 'insidious' inflationpublished at 07:23 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Chancellor Jeremy HuntImage source, Reuters

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says the government will set out its plans tomorrow to help bring inflation under control.

    He blamed "the aftershock of Covid and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine" for driving up inflation in the UK and around the world.

    Hunt said that he would have to take "tough but necessary decisions" on tax and spending to bring down debt and support sustainable growth while protecting the most vulnerable.

    Quote Message

    This insidious tax is eating into pay cheques, household budgets and savings, while thwarting any chance of long-term economic growth. It is our duty to help the Bank of England in their mission to return inflation to target by acting responsibly with the nation’s finances."

  14. What is driving highest inflation for 41 years?published at 07:16 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    The latest inflation figure of 11.1% is the highest in the UK for 41 years, a figure not seen since October 1981.

    We've been digging through the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and what in particular has been driving the surging cost of living.

    Despite the government's introduction of the Energy Price Guarantee, which provides support to households in England, Scotland and Wales for their bills through to April, gas and electricity costs were behind the latest surge in prices.

    The ONS estimated that without the bills help, the inflation figure would have gone as high as 13.8%.

    Food and non-alcoholic drinks also saw a big increase, with costs up 16.4% in the year to October.

    We'll continue to bring the latest analysis as it comes.

  15. Energy costs push UK inflation to 11.1%published at 07:02 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022
    Breaking

    The Office for National Statistics has just published the latest figures for inflation for October, external.

    They show that prices rose by 11.1% in the year to October, as higher energy bills drove inflation, which measures how the cost of living changes over time.

    Higher energy and food bills have caused households and companies to cut back on spending, which has led to expectations the UK will enter a recession at the end of the year.

    More to come on the latest figures as we get it.

    BBC graph shows steep rise in inflation since 2021Image source, .
  16. UK inflation figures coming uppublished at 06:58 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    We're expecting the latest inflation figures for the year to October in the next few minutes.

    As we've been reporting, in the 12 months to September 2022 the figure was 10.1%.

    Economists think inflation could rise to as high as 10.9% because of rising food and energy bills.

    But we'll find out shortly when we bring you the inflation announcement - along with analysis of what it means.

  17. When will inflation go down?published at 06:50 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    While, today's inflation figure is expected to hit a new 40-year high - it could still rise further in coming months.

    The Bank now says it expects inflation, external to peak at 11% this year. It then thinks it will drop sharply from the middle of next year, falling to around 5% by the end of 2023.

    Lower inflation does not mean prices will go down. It just means they will stop rising as fast.

    In two years' time the Bank projects it will have fallen fall to 1.4%. But with uncertainty over what will happen to energy prices and the impact of recent policy changes by the government, it is hard to predict what will happen.

  18. Price rises are worse for some people than otherspublished at 06:44 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Dharshini David
    Economics Correspondent

    The cost of living is already more than 10% higher than it was a year ago, the official figures say. But you may feel your bills have risen by a lot more.

    That's because your own personal inflation rate is driven by factors specific to you: if you're someone who buys a lot of petrol, your weekly outgoings will have gone up a lot more than someone who cycles everywhere, for example.

    You can read more about how your personal experience of price rises compares with others, and use our personal inflation rate calculator here.

  19. What could we see this morning?published at 06:38 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    We'll find out the latest inflation figure from the Office of National Statistics at 07:00. But economics are expecting yet another rise, up from 10.1% last month - with a new 40-year high predicted.

    Forecasts say the figure could even reach between 10.7% and 10.9%. We'll bring you the latest as we get it - stay with us.

  20. Average wages not going up in line with inflationpublished at 06:34 Greenwich Mean Time 16 November 2022

    Pay increases for many people aren't keeping up with rising prices.

    This means people's money doesn't go as far, so buying things and paying bills gets harder.

    Average wages, not including bonuses, rose by 5.7% in the three months to November 2022. Wages for people working in the private sector increased by 6.6%, compared with 2.2%, external for those in public sector jobs.

    Overall, once inflation is taken into account, average pay actually fell by 2.7%.

    Unions say wages should reflect the cost of living.

    However, the government says this could push inflation even higher because companies could increase prices to cover higher wages.