COP27: Are nations on track to meet their climate goals?

It has been a year since the world's governments committed to new, more ambitious climate pledges at the UN summit in Glasgow.

They promised to further reduce emissions, cut back on fossil fuels and end deforestation.

But since then the world has seen the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a global energy crisis, and political upheaval in some countries.

As governments meet again in Egypt, to reflect on progress, have they kept their climate promises?

Emissions: More pledges, but still increasing

What was agreed?

In Glasgow - at the COP26 climate summit - countries agreed to submit more ambitious climate plans, including cuts to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).

Why does it matter?

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas which causes climate change. Reducing emissions is needed to help keep temperature rises within 1.5C. Going above this could cause "climate catastrophe", according to UN scientists.

What's been done?

Countries were given a deadline of September to submit new plans - but only 22 countries out of 196 met this.

The UN's latest assessment of these plans estimates that if all targets are met, global emissions will still increase by 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010.

But the UN's climate science body, the IPCC, has said they need to fall by 45% by 2030 to keep global temperature rise below 1.5C.

Despite the remaining emissions gap, there have been significant new targets from major economies.

In September, Australia enshrined in law a new pledge to cut carbon emissions by 43% by 2030. And India will meet 50% of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030.

Navroz Dubash, professor at the Centre for Policy Research, told the BBC progress is not just about more creating more ambitious plans but implementing what is on the ground.

What is COP and where is it being held this year?

• Every year the world's governments meet at a climate summit called Conference of the Parties (COP)

• The 27th of these - COP27 is in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November.

• Last year COP26 was held in Glasgow, UK and the Glasgow Climate Pact was signed.

What was agreed at COP26?

Fossil fuels: Energy crisis threatens progress

The Glasgow Climate Pact included a plan to reduce the use of coal - which is responsible for 40% of annual CO2 emissions.

World leaders also agreed to phase out inefficient oil and gas subsidies. These are government payments that artificially lower the price of fossil fuels.

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year brought significant disruption to the energy system and efforts to transition away from fossil fuels.

Many countries imposed sanctions on Russia and stopped purchasing its fuels.

But Russia is a major fuel provider - it is the largest gas exporter in the world, and one of the world's top oil producers, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

So sanctions left a significant shortage in energy supply which countries had to fill quickly. They have turned to more polluting sources of energy such as LNG and coal.

India - the second largest consumer of coal - announced in April that it was increasing production of coal power and reopening 100 plants.

And the UK and Germany both asked energy firms to delay the closure of end-of-life coal plants.

• Coal plants asked to open longer due to supply fears

Sabrina Muller, policy analyst at the London School of Economics, thinks this is a short-term measure to move away from Russian gas, and that in the long term the energy crisis is spurring nations into renewable energy investment.

In May the EU proposed to increase the EU's 2030 target for renewables from the current 40% to 45%.

And seven countries have pulled out of plans to build new coal plants.

Deforestation: Brazil and forest fires hinder global progress

What was agreed?

More than 100 countries - with about 85% of the world's forests - promised to stop deforestation by 2030.

Why does it matter?

This is seen as vital, as trees absorb about 10% of the CO2 emitted each year.

What's been done?

Half the world's forests are in just five countries - Russia, Brazil, Canada, the US and China - so their actions could make a big difference.

In April, US President Biden signed an order to protect old-growth forests on government land.

But in Brazil - home to more than half of the Amazon rainforest - deforestation is up 48% on last year.

Frances Seymour of research group the World Resources Institute (WRI) said this was not surprising "in light of the relaxation of environmental enforcement" by Brazil's outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro was beaten in an election by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has vowed to aggressively combat deforestation once he takes power in January.

• A vote on the fate of the Amazon

Another challenge for forest protection is wildfires - which are an increasing issue for Europe and Australia. Russia lost 6.5 million hectares of forest to fires last year, whilst 1.4 million hectares have been reportedly burned in Europe since the start of the year.

Climate finance:

What was agreed?

Richer countries agreed to provide $100bn (£88bn) a year to developing nations for climate action by the end of 2020 - a pledge that was missed.

And these countries made further long-term pledges to provide finance to tackle and protect against climate change.

Why does it matter?

Developing nations need the money to move away from fossil fuels, by doing things like investing in green technologies. They also need to prepare for the worst impacts of climate change.

What's been done?

Major economies such as the UK, Japan and the EU have increased their funding for climate action over the last year. And EU leaders confirmed that the $100bn pledge will be met by 2023.

President Joe Biden promised to increase the US contribution to $11.4bn a year by 2024. But the US Congress only approved $1bn - less than 10% of that figure - earlier this year.

The World Resources Institute's (WRI) review of pledges last year had already concluded that the US was not giving its fair share, based on its relative wealth and historic contribution to global emissions

• Why hasn't climate pledge to poor countries been met?

Methane - significantly worsening situation

What was agreed?

A scheme to cut 30% of methane emissions by 2030 was agreed by more than 100 countries.

The big emitters - China, Russia and India - are yet to join, although China did agree in a deal with the US to work on the issue.

Why does it matter?

Methane is currently responsible for a third of human-generated warming.

What's been done?

In October, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) concluded that methane had seen the biggest annual increase in 2021 since records began nearly 40 years ago.

Worryingly scientists are unsure exactly was has caused this jump. Historically, farming and oil and gas production have been the main sources of methane. But this sudden increase could be the result of climate change itself.

As the world gets warmer it begins to breakdown organic material - dead plants and animals - in wetlands and peatlands, which releases methane into the atmosphere. The warmer it gets, the more quickly this happens - this is known as a feedback cycle.

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Top image from Getty Images. Climate stripes visualisation courtesy of Prof Ed Hawkins and University of Reading.