Recent history's warning for the EFL strugglers

Carlisle boss Mike Williamson and Morecambe's Derek Adams both have history against them as they look to avoid the drop from the EFL

Mid-October, 11 games gone - too soon to start worrying about the dreaded drop?

Not if you're in the League Two relegation zone, it isn't.

Carlisle and Morecambe fans may not want to spend too much time studying the current League Two standings but a comparison with the table at the same time over the previous three seasons is a clear warning.

The sides in the bottom two after 11 games over the past three campaigns - Sutton United, Forest Green Rovers, Rochdale, Hartlepool United, Scunthorpe United and Oldham Athletic - have all ended up dropping out of the EFL.

Recent history tells us, like quicksand, once you are in the mire it can be hard to dig yourself out, so BBC Sport assesses the prospects of the early strugglers.

Carlisle United

Just five points separate the bottom 10 sides in League Two

Relegation from League One last season was pretty much a certainty for Carlisle from the start of February when they sat bottom, 10 points from safety.

Twelve losses from their final 16 matches made it a season to forget but those hoping it might be a bit easier back in League Two have had a rude awakening.

Three defeats in their opening four games cost manager Paul Simpson his job and his successor, Mike Williamson, has found it difficult to stop the rot with his opening win at Swindon followed by a draw at Colchester and three losses.

"Hopefully this [dropping to the bottom of the table] is the shot in the arm they needed to let them know this is really serious," said BBC Radio Cumbria commentator James Phillips on The Carlisle Social podcast.

At the risk of rubbing salt into already open Cumbrian wounds, when Carlisle were relegated out of the EFL in the 2003-04 season, they were also bottom of the table after 11 games.

"This is reminiscent of what we saw last season in League One," former Carlisle striker Jabo Ibehre told the podcast.

"You need to get the fun back, not get bogged down in philosophies or tactics but remind the players just how good they are and get back to basics - to me it looks like they're thinking too much."

Carlisle host Harrogate Town on Saturday.

Morecambe

Ben Tollitt (right) scored the winner for Derek Adams' Morecambe at Barrow last weekend

It might appear a bit cruel to highlight Morecambe's inadequacies given their supporters are riding the crest of a wave brought about by the relief of a first EFL win in 16 attempts.

The 1-0 victory at Barrow last Saturday ended a run stretching back to 1 April - when they also beat the Bluebirds.

In between those wins, off-field issues have plagued the club and the signing of 15 players in one day in July hardly promised a great start to the season.

Back at the helm for a third stint and having led them to the heady heights of League One, Derek Adams knows Morecambe inside and out but will need all his expertise to beat the drop.

"Performances have generally been good with just one defeat in seven games and Derek Adams is beginning to see some promising signs," said BBC Radio Lancashire's Morecambe reporter, Derek Quinn.

"Ben Tollitt has scored four goals in three games while Adam Lewis seems to have found a perfect role on the left hand side of midfield, giving the Shrimps an attacking edge that was sadly lacking in the opening weeks of the campaign.

"There is always a worry the ongoing ownership saga will strangle the Shrimps' ambitions but they are a side that, on the field, looks united and out to do all it can to steer clear of the bottom two."

Morecambe host MK Dons on Saturday.

Accrington Stanley

John Doolan took over as Accrington Stanley manager on a permanent basis in March

Like the myth surrounding the ravens leaving the Tower of London, Accrington Stanley fans will hope losing manager John Coleman doesn't bring about their downfall.

Coleman and Stanley parted company in early March after a second spell in charge spanning nearly 10 years and a promotion to League One.

Chairman Andy Holt came in for criticism for that decision and is yet to see much of a return with just five wins from the 21 EFL matches since Coleman left and 11 defeats along the way.

Jack Nolan, Tommy Leigh and Joe Pritchard all left the Lancastrians in the summer leaving new boss John Doolan with a rebuilding job on one of the smaller budgets in the division.

But Accrington are beginning to come to life with back-to-back wins to take into their home meeting with Barrow this weekend.

Cheltenham Town

Michael Flynn led Newport County to the League Two play-off final in 2021

Just like Carlisle, Cheltenham are finding it hard to adjust to life back in League Two.

With manager Darrell Clarke exiting for Barnsley following their relegation on the final day of last season, the Gloucestershire club took just eight days to appoint Michael Flynn as his successor.

With the worst away record in the division yielding one point from five games, Cheltenham have not been helped by the loss of midfielder Harry Pell to a season-ending knee injury and defender Ryan Haynes for up to six months.

"It was always going to be a rebuilding process for Cheltenham off the back of Clarke leaving, having narrowly failed to achieve 'mission impossible' and avoid relegation after being appointed following the club's slowest start to a campaign," said BBC Radio Gloucestershire Sport's Paul Furley.

"While Cheltenham have had to cut their cloth to fit their budget, fans are yet to be convinced manager Michael Flynn and the current squad can achieve a comparable transformation in the Robins’ fortunes.

"The long-term hope has to be that investment can be found, the short-term hope must be the fit and injury-free players among the 19 new faces can gel quickly, especially with an FA Cup first round draw against Rotherham lengthening the odds on a money-spinning cup run."

Cheltenham visit Colchester United on Saturday.

Bromley

Michael Cheek scored 23 National League goals for Bromley last season including two in the play-off final win against Solihull Moors

Fresh from their Wembley play-off success, Bromley opened their debut EFL campaign with two wins - easy this League Two stuff, isn't it?

Erm, no it isn't. Bromley have not won any of their subsequent eight games, losing four.

In Michael Cheek, they have a prolific striker who has done the business at all levels of non-league football and has already found the net six times this season.

But the fact the rest of the Bromley squad between them have only managed a further six league goals might point to an over-reliance on Cheek.

One factor in Bromley's favour? No team promoted from the National League has ever been relegated straight back the following campaign.

Bromley are at home to Tranmere on Saturday.

Tranmere Rovers

Tranmere manager Nigel Adkins made more than 80 appearances for the club as a player

It took Tranmere Rovers three years to return to the EFL after the pain of successive relegations sent them tumbling into the National League in 2015.

Normally always among the bookies' favourites for promotion, it's not difficult to see where their troubles lie this time around - just five goals scored is the lowest tally in the division.

"Manager Nigel Adkins knows they need to improve in the goalscoring department," said BBC Radio Merseyside's Ian Kennedy.

"On the plus side, Omari Patrick has been really dangerous on the left hand side, scoring four goals, and he could be key to getting back on track.

"The ambitions at Tranmere will have been to challenge in the top half of the table, especially after an encouraging end to last season under Adkins but they now need a sequence of positive results, and to do that will need to convert the chances they create on a more regular basis."

Looking over their shoulders...

Colchester head coach Danny Cowley led Lincoln City out of League Two in 2019

Only goal difference is keeping Swindon Town out of the bottom six and you won't find many positive noises coming out of Wiltshire at the moment.

The supporters' trust believes more football experience is needed within the club's leadership.

A 3-2 victory at Cheltenham last weekend ended a four-game winless league run but home form, just four points gained from a possible 15 so far, has to improve considerably to keep Swindon's heads above water.

Colchester United are just one goal better off than Swindon but, after three years of struggle, there is a relatively positive atmosphere around north Essex, a lot of which can be attributed to the appointment of Danny Cowley in January.

The loss of young stars Jay Mingi, Jayden Fevrier and Noel Chilvers has been covered by the recruitment of experienced heads such as Tom Flanagan, Rob Hunt, Alex Woodyard and Lyle Taylor.

The U's will need to convert some of their draws into wins to ensure there is no need for a repeat of last season's final-day escape.

Salford City and MK Dons will expect to climb the table given their ambitions and budgets at this level.

In manager Karl Robinson they have a man who knows what it takes to get out of League Two - but the Ammies need more goals to climb the table as only Tranmere have scored fewer than their seven so far.

MK Dons were expected to come flying out of the blocks after their play-off semi-final defeat by Crawley last season.

Instead they have struggled, seen manager Mike Williamson depart for Carlisle United and replaced him with their Crawley nemesis, Scott Lindsey.

It may take time for Lindsey to instil his playing style at Stadium MK but he is reunited with two of his promotion-winning Crawley squad in Laurence Maguire and Liam Kelly.