Phil McNulty
BBC Sport chief football writer

For Carlo Ancelotti, this tournament's greatest coach with five wins, he will be meeting Guardiola in the Champions League for the 10th time, on eight occasions with Real against City. The Italian has won four of their nine meetings, never losing at home, winning two games and drawing two.

Of more recent significance is that to unseat the holders, City will have to alter poor form in the competition after losing their past three away games to Sporting, Juventus and Paris St-Germain.

Phil McNulty
BBC Sport chief football writer

Image source, Getty Images

Statistics pile up like giant obstacles in front of City's route to the last 16, explaining why Real are overwhelming favourites after two goals in a late surge gave them victory at Etihad Stadium.

It was the 40th time Real have won the first leg of a European knockout-stage tie away from home, progressing on 37 of the previous 39 occasions.

City's defeat, meanwhile, was the fifth time they have lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout-stage tie, going on to be eliminated on the previous four occasions.

Phil McNulty
BBC Sport chief football writer

Pep Guardiola strode into the Bernabeu Stadium's palatial surroundings knowing Manchester City must overturn the odds - and logic - in a special place that usually reserves its miracles for Real Madrid.

He has known every emotion in this legendary arena on a Champions League journey that has brought him here with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

And on Wednesday, Guardiola will once more appear alongside his friend and great adversary, Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti, beneath those towering stands knowing victory will rank among his finest achievements.

Guardiola said he rated City's chances of overturning a 3-2 deficit from the first leg of this play-off to reach the last 16 as "1%".

But the wily Ancelotti was not taking Guardiola's bait about percentages when he spoke in Madrid on Tuesday, saying: "He doesn't really think that. We don't think we have a 99% chance. We have a small advantage - and we have to take advantage of that."

Guardiola responded: "For the first time he didn't believe me. I always say what I think, and this time you don't believe me."

Paul Dickov
Former Manchester City striker on BBC Radio 5 Live

As difficult as this season has been, the team is full of players who have been to the Bernabeu before and won the Champions League before. There were little signs on Saturday against Newcastle that we’re getting back to where they want to be, albeit Newcastle were pretty poor on the day.

But City know what they’ve got to do and that's the main thing. They have to go there and win. Sometimes that’s not a bad thing. [However] it can leave you open at the back but when you have Haaland scoring goals again and Marmoush looking good you got a chance.

Phil McNulty
BBC Sport chief football writer

Pep Guardiola's record with City against Real Madrid is chequered, though it started with victory in the last 16 in 2020, the two legs being played six months apart because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The most bitter moment came two years later when City led by two goals on aggregate in the 90th minute of the semi-final second leg at the Bernabeu, only for Rodrygo to score twice within seconds, Karim Benzema's injury-time penalty (pictured) sending Real on to eventual victory over Liverpool in the final in Paris.

When Guardiola, as Manchester City manager, claimed his third Champions League crown in 2023, after winning with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, Real were thrashed 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-final, the Spanish champions then prevailing on penalties last season.

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Real Madrid and Manchester City are meeting for the 14th time in the Champions League tonight, with all seven seasons they have met seeing them play each other home and away.

This campaign is the seventh time the two sides have met each other in the competition, all of which have come in the last 13 years.

Five of their six meetings have been part of knockout round ties, although none of those have been settled via away goals.

This is the fourth season in a row they have met since away goals were scrapped.

Image source, Getty Images

An added twist to the rivalry between Real Madrid and Man City came at last year's Ballon d'Or unveiling - when Real opted not to send anyone to the ceremony where City linchpin Rodri was named the world's best player ahead of Vinicius.

Guardiola insisted City felt "absolutely" no ill feeling towards Real over that apparent snub prior to last Tuesday's first leg.

However, the fact the City fans unfurled a huge banner referencing the situation - "Stop Crying Your Heart Out" - alongside a picture of the currently injured Spain midfielder kissing his trophy suggested otherwise.

Paul Dickov
Former Manchester City striker on BBC Radio 5 Live

You can go there with no fear. I’m not comparing Celtic with City, but you see Celtic going to Bayern last night pressing from the front, getting on the ball and playing with a lot of character because they have nothing to lose. If they can go out there and play with that same attitude, they’ve always got a chance.

Image source, Getty Images

Erling Haaland has been prolific in the Champions League, scoring 49 goals in 48 games. If he scores at the Bernabeu, he will become the fastest player to 50 goals in appearances and age, at 24 years and 213 days.

Phil McNulty
BBC Sport chief football writer

Pep Guardiola was in measured mood when he appeared in front of the media at the Bernabeu, an environment that represented enemy territory during his time as player and coach with Barcelona - and his message was crystal clear.

"We have to make it almost the perfect game," he said. "We have to attack. We have to score goals. This is the idea."

Guardiola is determined City will not leave the Bernabeu wondering or with regrets, saying: "We must play with courage. We must be ourselves. It will need incredible courage and we must play to win.

"We could still lose, but we have to show that courage and be ourselves. We have to play so well, especially after the result we took away in the first leg."

Have your say on tonight's big game by taking part in our poll at the top of this page.

We have asked you whether Real Madrid or Manchester City will go through to the round of 16 - make your choice, and we will reveal the results of the vote later today.

Paul Dickov
Former Manchester City striker on BBC Radio 5 Live

I think Pep could lose every game from now to the end of the season and they’d still be in a strong position. He’s got a lot in the bank. This season has been disappointing, if they lose tonight it will be disappointing. But they’ve still got the FA Cup to play for. If they don’t win anything this season, Pep’s still here. It was going to be almost impossible to repeat what they’ve done.

Image source, Getty Images

Chris Sutton
Former Celtic striker on 5 Live

Manchester City can go into this game feeling a lot more confident and have that belief but they have all of it do because to keep out this Real Madrid team with Mbappe, Vinicus Junior, Rodrygo and Bellingham... i can't see Manchester City keeping a clean sheet.

I think defensively this season they have had massive issues. I think the goalkeepers haven't played well, chopped and changed at the back. I think Manchester City have it all to do, but you just never know.

Phil McNulty
BBC Sport chief football writer

This could be a Champions League farewell to Manchester City for modern greats of the club such as Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and goalkeeper Ederson, while others such as Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic are also in their 30s.

Pep Guardiola would not be drawn as he said: "I would like to answer this but it will be at the end of the season. We still have a lot to play for, to qualify for the Champions League next season, we are still there in the Champions League this season. We have the FA Cup and the Club World Cup."

Real Madrid

A slightly bizarre incident following yesterday's Real Madrid news conference, where midfielder Fede Valverde has had to make a statement regarding a lack of comment about referees.

Madrid are embroiled in a row with La Liga over officiating, which reached boiling point at the weekend when Jude Bellingham was sent off during their 1-1 draw with Osasuna for allegedly swearing at the ref.

Valverde did not mention refereeing when previewing tonight's game against Manchester City - but has put out a statement assuring fans that he is aware of "what is happening to us" and the "suffering" Madrid have had from officials.

"I don't want anyone to misunderstand me, but above all I want to clarify for our fans: if today I don't talk about the refereeing we are suffering it is because I KNOW MYSELF, and I must focus on tomorrow," he wrote on X, external.

"Everyone has seen what is happening to us in this league, and I don't forget it, but now we have to focus on tomorrow, and I will be 100% as I have always been."

Image source, Getty Images