Manchester City

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Opta's supercomputer has ranked Manchester City fourth in its predictions for who will win the Champions League

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta power rankings. Both these areas are based on historical and recent team performances and the computer runs 10,000 simulations to create its predictions.

Pep Guardiola's side win the tournament in 8.4% of simulations, which is well below their projection of 25.3% this time last year having endured a tough campaign in 2024-25.

They only just made it through the new league phase with a 22nd-place finish, before losing 6-3 on aggregate to Real Madrid in the play-offs - a side they must face again this time with a trip to the Bernabeu lined up for Wednesday, 10 December.

Image source, Opta

The supercomputer has City reaching the quarter-finals in just over half of their simulations (54.6%), getting to the semi-finals 31.1% of the time and reaching the final 16.6% of the time.

Opta ranks the likeliest threats to Guardiola's side as favourites Liverpool (20.4%), Arsenal (16%) and holders Paris St-Germain (12.1%).

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Former England winger Theo Walcott praised Manchester City duo Erling Haaland and Phil Foden following their standout performances in Sunday's Manchester derby: "Erling Haaland's an animal. He always has a picture of any finish in that 18-yard box. Or, where he is on that field, he just knows when to go, when not to go, when to reserve his energy.

"It's that picture, he sees it. And I'd say any young player out there, you don't have to overthink things. He doesn't, he simplifies it. You see it with that finish [for his second goal], such a cool finish. He knew what he was going to do. The third touch he takes to set himself, he's already smiling before he's finished.

"In these big games, he knows when to come out of his shell. Of course, he had a great week internationally as well. He's coming back with so much confidence and he's already got an abundance of confidence anyway. He's got a presence and aura about him."

On Foden: "It was like a test, he hasn't really played but Pep [Guardiola] put him in against Manchester United, one of the biggest clubs in the world.

"He's expected to be a presence and represent the club, but I'm not sure he's that type. He talks by playing his football.

"After the game Pep embraced him, he knows how important Foden is and needs to keep him onside. He's important for Haaland too."

Simon Stone
Chief football news reporter

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Manchester City winger Jeremy Doku knew Sunday was going to be a good day - and it had nothing to do with his performance in the derby day victory over Manchester United.

Doku has never hidden his strong Christian faith and, in the immediate aftermath of his starring role in City's 3-0 win at Etihad Stadium, said he was going straight off to be baptised.

"For me, today was already a victory day," he said.

"Why? Because I knew that after the game I'm going to be baptised.

"As a Christian, when you get baptised, your old nature, your old sinful nature dies, and you start living with God. You resurrect with God, with Jesus Christ.

"You can do that as a kid but normally it's meant for when you're older and you really realise what you're doing."

The spiritual side of religion is at odds with the pressurised environment of elite level football.

However, it possibly explains Doku's calm persona.

Doku was influenced in his religion by Belgium international team-mate Romelu Lukaku and it is clear how significant it is to him.

"It's the centre of my life," he said. "There's nothing more important to me than faith."

We asked for your thoughts after Sunday's Premier League game between Manchester City and Manchester United.

Here are some of your comments:

Man City fans

Anurag: Much-needed win! Terrific performance from Erling Haaland and Phil Foden as they have also done against United in the past! Loved it from the first minute, and shoutout to Donnarumma and Khusanov for their great defensive work.

Brian: Stunning performance. City found their mojo and the return to form of Foden inspired the whole team to play with passion and show that will to win. On this form, City will be a force to be reckoned with in both the Premier League and in the Champions League. This was an amazing watch. The tide has turned. Confidence in all areas of the pitch.

CF: Manchester is blue! Some incredible saves from Donnarumma, a beautiful goal from Foden, who has finally returned, a near perfect performance from Haaland both defensively and in attack, and gorgeous assists from Doku. A masterclass team performance worthy of the Manchester derby.

Andy: A good performance, but still some work to be done. City gave the ball away too often and might have been punished if playing more accomplished opponents. On the plus side, Haaland and Foden were outstanding, Khusanov showed just how good he can be and Donnarumma had a flawless introduction to life in Manchester. If City carry this into Thursday's encounter with Napoli the signs are promising.

Man Utd fans

Mark: No point spending £200m on forwards when you defend like that! Back three too slow. Where is the the passion?

Andy: United will start to score goals. They have bought wisely up front, but are completely at sea defensively. They have to go to a flat back four to steady the ship. And if that works, it will make Ruben Amorim look tactically naive for not doing it sooner. I like Amorim and would like him to be given time, but he's digging a hole for himself.

Rob: Same old story. Amorim always states "we have to do better" - we know that! But it doesn't get any better. The frustration is killing me. Get rid and go back to a classic formation of play.

Graham: We were rubbish - again. We just don't have the quality. We're kidding ourselves about Ugarte, and Shaw looked pedestrian. The manager is getting away with being clueless. All must go.

Manchester City will rival Manchester United in the race to sign Inter Milan's 29-year-old Netherlands full-back Denzel Dumfries. (Football Insider), external

Want more transfer stories? Read Monday's full gossip column

Follow the gossip column on BBC Sport

Pundits Theo Walcott and Danny Murphy join host Kelly Cates to bring you the action and talking points from Sunday's Premier League fixtures.

Watch on BBC iPlayer here

And listen back to full match commentaries on BBC Sounds:

• Burnley 0-1 Liverpool

• Man City 3-0 Man Utd

Shamoon Hafez
Football reporter

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Erling Haaland showed his value in both boxes against Manchester United and it was his crucial contributions that allowed Manchester City to take all three points.

The striker had nine touches of the ball in the opposition box and six in his own, showcasing his defensive capabilities as well as his ruthlessness in the final third.

At the start of the second half, when City were 1-0 up courtesy of Phil Foden's headed goal, United were looking to restore parity and played a series of crosses into the box.

With each one, they could only find the head of Haaland, who made vital interceptions on each occasion.

In all, the Norwegian made a total of six clearances, including four with his head, with centre-back Ruben Dias the only City player to contribute more.

Once the spell of pressure was relieved, Haaland was summoned to the side of the pitch by Guardiola and the two men had an amicable discussion - the striker trotted back into his familiar position up front and seconds later doubled the advantage with a delightfully dinked finish.

Haaland showed he is human when he went round Altay Bayindir and somehow struck the post with a virtually open goal to aim at, but it did not deter him as he ran through to convert a composed second.

"A complete performance," Foden said of his team-mate. "The way he held up the ball when we were struggling. He did everything. Defending, attacking, running in behind and doing the dirty work.

"It was a full shift and we need that more."

Former United captain Roy Keane said Haaland "could have scored a few more", adding on Sky Sports: "We know Haaland's strengths. You have one of the best strikers in the world running from the halfway line and there was never any doubt he was going to finish it.

"You talk about a team player, you have to give him praise for coming back and doing a good job defensively."

Read more on Haaland's display

Shamoon Hafez
Football reporter

There was talk of a crisis looming for Pep Guardiola if Manchester City had lost against Manchester United on Sunday, but Phil Foden and Erling Haaland ended any such talk.

Home supporters rejoiced by doing the 'Poznan' dance inside the stadium after watching their side claim the bragging rights courtesy of City's sixth win over United in their last nine league meetings.

The goalscorers seem to relish the prospect of coming up against United - both scored hat-tricks in a 6-3 victory here in October 2022 and they did the damage for the hosts once more.

Foden's header past the reach of Altay Bayindir in the first half was his seventh goal in a Manchester derby, with the Englishman having only netted more frequently in his career against Brighton with eight.

Haaland came into the fixture on the back of scoring an astonishing five goals for his country in the 11-1 thrashing of Moldova during the week but was being made to do his defensive duties for large periods early on.

When he got to show of his attacking talent, the two goals he scored were coolly finished to take his tally to five in just four league games this season and 90 in 101 Premier League matches.

He should have had more but hit the woodwork from a couple of yards out, while a flicked effort was collected by Bayindir.

United were falling apart and City were threatening to rack up another sizeable scoreline against their opponents – Tijjani Reijnders clipping wide after running through having also had a side-footed effort that was kept out by Bayindir in the first half.

Guardiola will be smiling tonight after a satisfactory afternoon, but the same cannot be said for counterpart Ruben Amorim, who will face serious scrutiny once again.

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola spoke to BBC Match of the Day after his side's victory over Manchester United: "We are in a situation with a start we didn't expect and of course our opponents are so strong.

"We want to be close and still fighting for titles. The spirit was great, our players have a lot of pride and they want to try to do better on a special day. We saw our fans so happy and that is our job, so, so privileged.

"We have many things to improve. We are not yet a team but step by step. The victory helps us a lot. In the games we have had a lot of momentum and others not enough.

"They [United] have fantastic players and I know here we struggle against them, we have more better results at Old Trafford."

On Phil Foden: "He played incredible. He is a guy who loves to arrive at the box. Our last Premier League title, he was the best player in the Premier League. We need him so much."

Did you know?

• Erling Haaland scored his 50th goal in his 50th home Premier League game for Manchester City. In the competition's history, only Alan Shearer required fewer home appearances to hit 50 home goals (47).

• This was the 57th Premier League Manchester derby – but the first of those not to see a single yellow or red card shown.

Hear more from Guardiola on BBC Sounds

Whether you were at the game or following from elsewhere, we want to know what you learned.

Have your say on Man City's performance

What did you make of Man Utd's display?

Come back on Monday for a selection of your replies

Manchester City make six changes to the side that suffered a last-gasp defeat at Brighton before the international break.

Deadline day signing Gianluigi Donnarumma comes straight into the starting line-up for his debut, replacing James Trafford.

Local boy Phil Foden also starts with Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O'Reilly and Jeremy Doku coming in.

Matheus Nunes and Oscar Bobb drop to the bench, while John Stones, Rayan Ait-Nouri and Omar Marmoush are not involved.

Man City XI: Donnarumma, Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly, Rodri, Reijnders, Silva, Doku, Foden, Haaland.

Subs: Ake, Bobb, Gonzalez, Lewis, Mfuni, Savinho, Mukasa, Nunes, Trafford

Manchester United make four changes to the side that edged out Burnley in their previous game.

Benjamin Sesko gets his first start up front, with Noussair Mazraoui making his first appearance of the season following a muscular issue.

Patrick Dorgu and surprisingly Manuel Ugarte also come in, with Casemiro on the bench alongside new signing Senne Lammens.

Diogo Dalot, Mason Mount and Matheus Cunha miss out.

Man Utd XI: Bayindir, Mazraoui, Yoro, De Ligt, Shaw, Dorgu, Ugarte, Fernandes, Diallo, Mbeumo, Sesko.

Subs: Casemiro, Fredricson, Heaton, Heaven, Lammens, Leon, Maguire, Mainoo Zirkzee

There are two games in the Premier League on Sunday and BBC Sport will bring you every moment.

• Burnley v Liverpool (14:00) - listen on BBC Radio 5 Live

• Man City v Man Utd (16:30) - listen on BBC Radio 5 Live

Kick-off times BST

Follow and listen to Burnley v Liverpool here

And Man City v Man Utd is here

You can also listen to today's 5 Live Premier League commentaries on most smart speakers. Just say "ask BBC Sounds to play Burnley v Liverpool" or "ask BBC Sounds to play Manchester City v Manchester United".

Find out more about how to listen to Premier League football on BBC Sounds

I can see Bryan Mbeumo hurting Manchester City, with Manchester United counter-attacking and him being a thorn in their backline chasing balls in behind. I am also not as convinced by City if James Trafford keeps his place in goal.

So, I think United will definitely score, but I still cannot go against City at Etihad Stadium because we know they will create chances there.

I don't want to keep bringing up the goalkeeper but City's chances of getting the results they need will definitely be improved if new signing Gianluigi Donnarumma is in goal because right now they need a big presence there, and Trafford doesn't give them that.

The same position is a huge call for United boss Ruben Amorim on Sunday too, but in a totally different way.

United signed Senne Lammens ahead of Aston Villa's Emi Martinez, who has definitely got the kind of presence that brings confidence to his defence the same way Donnarumma does.

We know Lammens has got these amazing save statistics, but there is much more to being Manchester United's goalkeeper than that.

Amorim confirmed on Friday that Altay Bayindir will start against City, so people are going to scrutinise that decision and ask why he didn't put Lammens in straight away if he rates him so highly.

Sutton's prediction: 2-1

Read the full predictions and have your say here

Jordan Butler
BBC Sport journalist

The Etihad is set to host to the 197th Manchester derby this weekend with both City and United enduring indifferent starts this season. BBC Sport explores some key themes as this historic rivalry continues.

Three points from a possible nine represents Pep Guardiola's worst start to any league season, while 21 years have passed since Manchester City were last beaten in two of their opening three Premier League matches.

The previous time City lost three of their first four top-flight games was in 1995-96 under Alan Ball. That campaign ended in relegation and while that is almost certainly not going to happen to this side, defeat here could see them fall nine points behind the early pacesetters Liverpool.

Guardiola will again look to the in-form Erling Haaland to fire his side to victory. The 25-year-old scored a hat-trick in his first Manchester derby in 2022 and warmed up for this one by netting five times in Norway's 11-1 victory over Moldova.

It was the third five-goal haul of Haaland's senior career and he has now scored 48 international goals in 45 caps. City's number nine would usually dominate the headlines given the week he has had, but most of the focus during the build-up is likely to be on the club's new number 99.

Gianluigi Donnarumma could become the eighth City player to make their Premier League bow in a Manchester derby and the third goalkeeper after Andreas Isaksson in 2006 and Claudio Bravo in 2016. Neither kept a clean sheet, although Isaksson did appear as a half-time substitute for Nicky Weaver.

Five of the previous seven debutants ended up on the winning side, two found the net and one - Mikhail Kavelashvili - is now the president of Georgia.

Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim has elected to stick with Altay Bayindir as his number one goalkeeper despite Senne Lammens arriving from Royal Antwerp for £18m on deadline day.

The Belgian will have to wait a little longer for his United debut but is likely to be on the bench on Sunday after Andre Onana's loan move to Turkish side Trabzonspor.

Bayindir has failed to impress in his brief spell as Manchester United's first choice – bar his FA Cup penalty heroics at Arsenal last season - and he is one of just three keepers to make an error leading to a goal this term.

Regardless of who plays in goal, United will be buoyed by the fact they are yet to lose to their Manchester rivals under Amorim, with a 2-1 victory at the Etihad last season followed by a goalless draw at Old Trafford in April.

Listen to commentary of the Manchester derby on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds on Sunday

You can also listen to 5 Live Premier League commentaries on most smart speakers. Just say "ask BBC Sounds to play Manchester City v Manchester United".

Find out more about how to listen to Premier League football on BBC Sounds

As the countdown continues to Sunday's Manchester derby, BBC Radio Manchester's Total Sport team brought you a live preview show.

Tap on the video below to watch it back (scroll to 13:46)...

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Rico Lewis says he will "give everything" to help Manchester City achieve success in the future after signing a new contract at the club.

The five-time England international has signed a two-year extension on his current contract, meaning his deal runs to 2030.

"Manchester City mean everything to me so to have been given the opportunity to sign this new contract is such a special moment both for me personally and my family," Lewis said.

"I am still improving and developing as a player, and I know that the opportunity to carry on working with Pep, his coaching team and our amazing squad will only help me to keep getting better.

"I am very excited about what the future holds for the club."

Director of football Hugo Viana added: "Rico embodies everything we aspire to be at Manchester City, and we are delighted he has signed his new contract.

"And we have no doubt at all he will play a very big part in our endeavour to help bring more success to the Club going forward."

Sami Mokbel
Senior football correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Kalvin Phillips is expected to be named in Manchester City's squad for the Premier League this season.

The midfielder has become the forgotten man at Etihad Stadium following his £45m move from Leeds in 2022 and has spent loan spells at West Ham and Ipswich over the past two seasons.

Phillips has been working on his fitness since returning from last season's loan spell at Portman Road and is set to be named in Pep Guardiola's top-flight party for the remainder of the campaign.

The 29-year-old, who became a key player during Gareth Southgate's time as England manager, has struggled to impose himself at the Etihad since his arrival at the club.

He made just 12 Premier League appearances in his first season at City and has not played for the club since 2023.

But his inclusion in the club's Premier League squad may open the door to further first-team opportunities this season.

Nat Hayward
BBC Sport journalist

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola has been speaking to the media before Sunday's Premier League game against city rivals Manchester United at Etihad Stadium (16:30 BST).

Here are the key lines from his news conference:

• Guardiola confirmed Omar Marmoush is inured and unavailable for Sunday. He thinks he will be out "for a few weeks" but return before the October international break, while Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait-Nouri remain sidelined.

• John Stones is a doubt for Sunday's derby but it is "not a big issue" and the rest of the squad "is fine".

• Guardiola paid tribute to the departed Ilkay Gundogan, Ederson and Manuel Akanji: "I wish personally all the best to all three because they helped us a lot to be who we are."

• On Gianluigi Donnarruma who joined on deadline day from Paris St-Germain: "The market gave us a chance to take Gigi. He is 26 years old and has incredible experience with big clubs and the national team. We didn't take Gigio to do what Ederson has done. Gigio has other qualities. He's so tall. He's so huge. He's going to concede goals but we're going to try to help him so it doesn't happen."

• Asked where this leaves fellow goalkeeper and summer signing James Trafford, Guardiola said: "He's a keeper for Manchester City. With keepers we can only play with one. The season is so long and everybody will be involved."

• He did not confirm who will start in goal on Sunday.

• When asked about Liverpool boss Arne Slot's comments that Alexander Isak is the best striker in the world, Guardiola said that he ranks Erling Haaland "a little bit above" and that he "would not change Erling for anyone".

• Is it easier to work with a smaller squad? "I have 16 players available now - yeah it's easier. I don't have 26. When you change 10 players in a period of four or five months, everything needs to be settled, fixed and co-ordinated. We are doing many, many good things, but still we have to be more consistent."

• Guardiola stressed his hunger for success is as great as ever: "I will not stay at Manchester City when I feel the club needs a change. But right now, I feel I want to do it - more than ever after what happened last season."

Follow all of Friday's Premier League news conferences and the rest of the day's football news

Listen to BBC Radio 5 Live commentary of the Manchester derby on Sunday

You can also listen to 5 Live Premier League commentaries on most smart speakers. Just say "ask BBC Sounds to play Manchester City v Manchester United".

Find out more about how to listen to Premier League football on BBC Sounds

Here more from Guardiola on BBC Sounds

Shamoon Hafez
Manchester City reporter

Image source, Getty Images

Pep Guardiola faces the media this lunchtime before Manchester City's crunch Premier League derby against rivals Manchester United on Sunday.

Guardiola looked like he had some downtime during the international break, spotted at the US Open as well as being seen speaking to Tommy Fleetwood on the golf course.

And there will be plenty to get stuck into with the Spaniard as the break added to the squad's growing injury list.

What options does Guardiola have in the forward line? Will Gianluigi Donnarumma get a debut in goal?

We'll find out when he faces the camera later.

Come back to this page later on Friday for all the key lines from Guardiola