Ipswich Town

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

History will be made when Ipswich Town host Wrexham on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

The two have never met in the English Football League and will be competing to try and draw first blood at Portman Road.

For the Tractor Boys, an even bigger prize is on offer, as a win could see them enter the top six and extend their undefeated run to a fifth league game.

• This is the first ever league meeting between Ipswich and Wrexham. Their only previous encounter was in the FA Cup third round in 1994-95 when the Red Dragons won 2-1 under Brian Flynn.

• Wrexham boss Phil Parkinson has won his last two league games against Ipswich, beating them twice during 2020 when he was Sunderland boss in League One.

• Ipswich Town have won four of their last six home league matches (D1 L1) and have lost one of their last 29 at Portman Road in the Championship (W19 D9), losing to newly promoted Charlton last month

• From MD6 onwards this season, no side have lost fewer Championship matches than Wrexham (1), with the Red Dragons unbeaten in five (W3 D2) since a 1-0 loss to Stoke in October.

• No player has scored more home Championship goals this season than Ipswich's Jaden Philogene (6). He's had a hand in 15 goals in his last 23 home appearances across spells with Hull and the Tractor Boys (12 goals, 3 assists).

Ipswich Town manager Kieran McKenna told BBC Radio Suffolk:

"You enjoy your away wins, they're a really good connector for the group. You go away from home to tough places like this and you get the win and you have to work hard for it. It's really good for bringing a new group together.

"It is a result to enjoy and importantly I thought it was a really good performance.

"From the first whistle pretty much to the end I thought there was lots to enjoy about our play.

"On the ball most of our defending was really good, though we are frustrated to concede the goal.

"But I thought it was a really strong performance, a performance to enjoy and of course a really good result."

Image source, Opta

Ipswich will seek to keep building momentum as they head to Swansea on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

Kieran McKenna's men are 10th and within three points of the play-off places, with a game in hand, after earning a 1-1 draw at home to Watford on Tuesday night.

It made it seven points from their past three games, including a 4-1 win at QPR in their most recent away game last Saturday.

The Swans are three points back in 17th and are consistently inconsistent, failing to record consecutive results of any kind in their 14 games so far this season.

They fell to a battling 2-1 defeat at Preston on Wednesday having grabbed a point at Charlton last Saturday but won their most recent home game against Norwich 2-1.

• Swansea have lost their past two home league games against Ipswich, having lost just one of their first 13 against them between 1947 and 2011 (W7 D5).

• Ipswich did the league double over Swansea when they last faced each other in 2023-24 – they've never won three in a row against the Swans before.

• After winning five consecutive league games at the start of April, Swansea have now won just four of their last 16 (D6 L6).

• Ipswich have conceded in each of their past 22 away league games, their longest run without a clean sheet on the road since a run of 23 in the 2018-19 campaign.

• Both Swansea and Ipswich have conceded five headed goals in the Championship so far this season, with only QPR (7) conceding more.

"It just shows they're passionate, that they care. But hopefully somebody got the two of them together in the dressing room fairly soon afterwards because they didn't go towards each other at full-time, they kept their distance, there was still a little bit of an undercurrent afterwards."

Graeme Mac, John Wark and Brenner Woolley dissect the in-game argument between Town midfielders Azor Matusiwa and Jaden Philogene during the draw with Watford, before discussing who gets on the teamsheet for Saturday's league visit to Swansea City.

Listen to more from the Ipswich Town matchday team on Sounds.

Ipswich midfielder Jack Taylor is pleased to be taking on a more senior role at the club after extending his contract in October.

Taylor arrived at Portman Road from Peterborough United in 2023, before extending his contract at the Suffolk-based club until 2028 in October.

Asked about having to talk more on pitch, Taylor told BBC Radio Suffolk: "Definitely, being in the middle of the park you need to get the best out of everyone around you.

"You don't want to be a team that is quiet as it gives the opposition a bit of an edge over you."

Ipswich have won back-to-back games with wins over West Bromwich Albion and QPR.

The Tractor Boys haven't won three consecutive league matches since 1 April 2024, when they beat Southampton in the Championship.

They face Watford on Tuesday at 19:45 GMT.

"We had two tough results against Middlesbrough and Charlton so I came into the games a bit fresh and thought I will bring my leadership and obviously my quality as well as my work ethic," Taylor added.

"Thankfully, it has brought us two wins - long may it continue."

Listen to Taylor's full interview and more on BBC Sounds.

Ipswich will be looking to continue their winning ways after back-to-back victories for the first time since September, when they welcome Watford to Portman Road on Tuesday (19:45 GMT).

Both Ipswich and Watford won last time out, and each sit just inside the top 10 in the Championship.

Watford beat Middlesbrough in a 3-0 thumping at the weekend, handing Boro just their second defeat of the campaign.

A win for Ipswich would be enough to launch them into the top six.

• Ipswich are unbeaten in each of their past four league games against Watford (W3 D1), with the most recent ending 0-0 at Portman Road in April 2024.

• Watford have lost on just one of their past 11 league visits to Ipswich, a run that stretches back to 2005 (W6 D4) – that sole defeat came in November 2014 under Slavisa Jokanovic.

• Ipswich have lost only two of their past 46 home league games outside of the top-flight (W32 D12), though one of those was in their most recent midweek game, losing 3-0 to Charlton Athletic last month.

• Watford remain winless in each of their past 12 away league games (D3 L9), the longest such ongoing run of any side in the top four tiers of English football.

• Watford's Tom Ince has only scored more goals in the Football League against Rotherham United (9) and Bristol City (8) than against Ipswich Town (5).

George Hirst's first Ipswich Town goals in six Championship games have been coming, according to the striker.

The 26-year-old scored twice in Saturday's 4-1 win at QPR to end a barren spell.

"I feel like they've been coming over the last few weeks," he told BBC Radio Suffolk.

"I've probably missed a few chances I look back on and feel I should put away but that's the life of a striker."

Hirst's double alongside two free-kicks from Marcelino Nunez helped Ipswich make it back-to-back league wins for the second time this season and move them up to ninth place in the table.

The forward believes his tally of five goals so far should be higher.

"It should be more, I'm the first to admit that, but sometimes they don't go in the back of the net and I'm the first person to look at myself, I don't blame anyone else," he added.

"If I wasn't getting chances I'd be a bit more worried but I'm always confident in my ability and there will be times in the season where you don't score for two, three or four games but you keep doing the right things in training and a matchday and ultimately they'll start to go in."

Ipswich next host Watford on Tuesday (19:45 GMT).

Image source, Getty Images

Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna was pleased with the way his team rallied in the second half of their 4-1 win at QPR.

George Hirst and Marcelino Nunez each scored twice at Loftus Road, with the former putting Ipswich in front after two minutes.

QPR were level at the break but McKenna was pleased with the response.

"A good win for us, two brilliant team goals and two brilliant individual goals at a big moment," speaking to BBC Radio Suffolk.

"Good experience for the team to go through.

"We had a good start and probably didn't build on it enough. But we stuck in and we knew we could build in the second half. Once we got the goals we played some really good stuff."

Both of Nunez's goals were free kicks, and McKenna was delighted for the midfielder who arrived in the summer from East Anglian rivals Norwich City.

"Marcelino is a really good set-piece taker. He practices a lot as much as I've seen anyone practice so he deserves his rewards," McKenna added.

"The subs came on with good energy, we defended well and look a threat."

QPR will seek to get back on track at home when Ipswich visit on Saturday (15:00 GMT) seeking to break their winless away run.

After a six-match unbeaten streak, in which the R's claimed 14 points, Julien Stephan's side have now lost two of their past three, going down 1-0 at Derby last time out, while they saw their unbeaten start at Loftus Road ended by Millwall the previous week.

Kieran McKenna's men are two points and three places below the ninth-placed Hoops but bounced back from consecutive defeats with a 1-0 home win over West Brom last Saturday.

They have however taken just two points from their opening four away games, while the fifth at Blackburn was abandoned late-on with the Tractor Boys trailing.

• QPR have won six of their past seven home league games against Ipswich Town (L1), though that sole loss came in their last meeting at Loftus Road in August 2023.

• Ipswich Town have won just three of their past 14 league games against QPR (D2 L9), but did win 1-0 away and draw 0-0 at home in the last campaign in which these two sides met (2023-24).

• QPR have won just two of their past 11 home league games (D5 L4), averaging just one goal per game during that time.

• Ipswich are winless across their past eight away league games (D4 L4), since a 2-1 win at Bournemouth in April – the Tractor Boys could lose back-to-back games on the road outside of the top-flight for the first time since December 2021 in League One (vs Sunderland and Charlton).

• Ipswich Town's Jack Clarke has scored four goals as a substitute so far this season in the Championship, at least twice as many as any other player.