Postpublished at 10:58 British Summer Time 20 July 2023
Jonathan Agnew
BBC cricket correspondent on Test Match Special
England only have one way to play this game, they will be going on speed.
England close on 384-4, leading by 67
Crawley hits majestic 189 off 182 balls
Crawley & Root put on 200 stand
Root hits superb 84 and Moeen makes fluent 54
Australia, who lead series 2-1, dismissed for 317
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Matthew Henry and Tom Mallows
Jonathan Agnew
BBC cricket correspondent on Test Match Special
England only have one way to play this game, they will be going on speed.
Hello!
How are we all?
It feels like a massive day, doesn't it?
England's players have emerged onto the field with Chris Woakes wheeling his arms around.
Old Trafford is filling up, the sun is shining and the players are ready to take it to the field.
It is also time for me to take a break. Here is Matthew Henry to take you through the first session.
Michael Vaughan
Former England captain on BBC Test Match Special
The key for me will be Joe Root, on these pitches that are slow you need skilful players. He's one of England's most talented players and we don't want him to play the Bazball way. He's previously got double centuries against Pakistan and we just want him to play the Joe Root way.
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If time had been lost to rain on the first day we'd be extending this day's play. Why with a lost day expected on Saturday aren't the first three days being used to bank extra time?
Andy, Hampshire
It is because even though rain is forecast you cannot predict how much play will be lost. Even though the predicted weather for Saturday is poor it could yet change (in theory at least).
Alex Hartley
Former England bowler on BBC Test Match Special
England will want to go be aggressive and soak up the pressure. The role of Moeen Ali is really important to support the rest of the middle order.
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Whatever happens, England must try score at 5 per over & declare and put Australia back in for 8 overs at the end of today and take 2 wickets. Even if it means Aus have a first innings lead, that's the only way to force a result
Stephan from Coventry
Giving the weather forecast I'm wondering whether Stokes will try and get these two wickets quickly...then get a rapid 200 runs...and then declare with the aim of bowling Australia out this evening... ...you just never know!
Steve, Surrey
I was thinking along similar lines!
And here it is!
Alex Hartley
Former England bowler on BBC Test Match Special
No-one has never been named after a floodlight so I thought surely Lancashire can give me one? I've played here for 17-18 years.
I've talked about it on the No Balls podcast and mentioned it on the radio yesterday. I got to the ground this morning I have got my own floodlight. I cannot believe it! I burst into tears, I'm so happy.
I can shine down on Manchester forever more now.
Sam Drury
BBC Sport cricket writer at Old Trafford
The England players have got the football out and are playing a bit of keepy uppy to warm up.
Brendon McCullum is joining in and there was a remarkable piece of skill from him earlier when he juggled the ball from one shoulder to the other on the run.
Now, I’m reliably informed that Baz is not much of a footballer so either it was a glorious fluke or it wasn’t him…
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Andy Zaltzman
Cricket statistician on Test Match Special
ANSWER: 52
The average score in all innings over 40 in men's Tests in the last 25 years is 92.3.
Australia's innings yesterday was the 113th time in men's Tests that numbers 3, 4, 5 and 6 have all reached 40, and the first time none of them has gone on to score at least 59. Only twice before had numbers 3 to 6 all reached 40 without at least one of them going to reach 70.
Thank you for all your Daily ZaltzQuiz guesses. I can reveal that no-one got it spot on, though a few were close.
Answer coming right up...
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My average of scores past 40 is 14, that will be my guess.
Adam, Daventry
Much higher than people think, got to be at least 30 but probably more. Once test players get past 40 they are thinking hundreds
Graeme in Bedford
I'm going to say 25 - I reckon most that get to 40 will get to 50, but few will then get close to 100.
Tom in Yorkshire
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Love this. Perhaps unfairly I always used to think Graeme Hick would either be out cheaply or go on to make a ton, so intrigued to see the bigger picture. I'm plunging for 26. Best wishes
Grant, Cambridgeshire
The answer is 14 simply because it's a great number! I was in Kyiv on a business trip when I met my lovely wife to be on 14th, I proposed on 14th, we got married on 14th, her birthday is 14th, and she became a UK citizen on 14th. So it's got to be 14!
Alistair & Ellie Powys
I think the tail of the distribution of scores post 40 will have an impact here. I think batters who reach 40 on average add another 50 runs, Brian Lara being responsible for much of that tail!
Anon
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so the question is whether yesterday was an outlier or representative of the average. 9000 scores is a big sample and includes double and triple centuries. I'm going outlier and the answer is much higher perhaps as high as 50.
Simon, Kent
I'm gonna go 35. Assuming 50% chance of getting through the 40's, that's 5. Then assuming 20% of 50+ become 100+, that's 6 more. Then going 24 additional on the average beyond that, for players that get close, players who get in the 70s etc.
Callum, Birmingham
If converting centuries from 40 is about 30% then the batter would add a minimum of 60 runs 30% of the time with the rest adding say 15 on average; so let’s guess 30 runs over and above 40.???
Anon
I am loving the methodology and dedication to your ZaltzQuiz guesses - the answer is coming up in about 10 minutes!
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Tom Rhodes: can you post the TMS overseas link for today please? Not on the live build up page... Need to listen from the scorched earth down here south of Rome...
Mallen from Brighton in Paris: Can you put up the You Tube link for listening A-Broad please! (See what I did there?!) I simply can’t miss any of today! Thanks!
Of course! Here you go - click here for the overseas TMS link., external
And take care in that hot weather!
Here are some of the key stats going into day two courtesy of our friends at CricViz.
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31 runs above 40 for the batsmen yesterday is likely below average, reaching 40 in a test means you have your eye in (or as my dad would put it, the ball is like a beachball to the batter now), so I’ll go with an average score of 65, or an average of 25 above 40. Paul, Qatar
Paul, Qatar
Getting to 40 usually means you're 'set' but a lot of players seem to lapse their concentration after making their 50. With that said, there's some very big scores too that which skew the numbers, so I'm going to go higher than other guesses and say 31
Jamie in Northants