Image source, Gracenote

Go on, admit it. You were slightly concerned about Chelsea's chances of qualifying after the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge weren't you?

The Blues' hopes dipped after that draw, according to Gracenote's Euro Club Index, external, which uses data to calculate the probability of Champions League outcomes.

Now it shows the Blues are almost certain to qualify for the knockout phase.

"Although Group E looks tight, Chelsea have 96% chance of reaching the knockout phase," says Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis, Nielsen Gracenote.

"Victory in Austria tonight guarantees Chelsea's progress to the last-16 and a draw might even be enough. Chelsea have 81% chance of winning Group E."

Image source, Getty Images

Six weeks ago Graham Potter had never been to a Champions League match.

His first taste of Europe's premier club competition came when he began his Chelsea reign with a draw against Salzburg, leaving his side with an uphill task to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages.

In his competition debut, the former Brighton boss picked Raheem Sterling as an advanced wing-back - as he is tonight - and the England international curled into the bottom corner shortly after the break.

It was a much-improved performance from Chelsea's defeat by Dinamo Zagreb in their opening Group E game last week, which spelled the end for former manager Thomas Tuchel.

But Matthias Jaissle's well-drilled Austrian side got an equaliser on 75 minutes when Thiago Silva missed a tackle, allowing Noah Okafor to clip in Junior Adamu's low cross.

Chelsea

Image source, Reuters

Five teams are already through to the round of 16 - Bayern Munich, Club Bruges, Manchester City, Napoli and Real Madrid.

Will Chelsea join them?

Their group campaign started on 6 September with a 1-0 defeat in Croatia against Dinamo Zagreb, with the club announcing the sacking of Thomas Tuchel the following day.

Yet Chelsea will progress to the knockout stage tonight with one game to spare under Graham Potter, who has steered the club to two wins and one draw in his three Champions League games in charge so far.

Looks like a cracking night to watch/play football in Austria...

Chelsea boss Graham Potter knows the importance of winning tonight but isn't getting too preoccupied about the permutations.

"It would be nice to win, absolutely, and there are consequences to winning," he said.

"But our thoughts are just try to win the match, perform as well as we can.

"We understand how tough it's going to be but we have to take the challenge and put ourselves in a good position.

"We're not finished, we haven't got enough points, we need to carry on, so that's going to be the test. We're looking forward to it."

Qualification scenarios can be head-scratchers for even the most analytic minds.

But Group E is a simple one for Chelsea:

If the Blues win in Austria tonight, they will progress to the last 16.

Chelsea will also go through if they draw and Milan beat Dinamo Zagreb.

Graham Potter's side could finish top of the group tonight - and therefore face a second-placed side in the last 16.

That scenario plays out if they win in Austria and Dinamo fail to beat Milan later in Zagreb.

That leads us nicely onto what a win tonight would mean for Chelsea...

Thoughts on the Chelsea line-up, folks?

Looks very attacking to me.

Raheem Sterling and Christian Pulisic will occupy the wing-back roles, with Conor Gallagher supporting Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Kai Havertz.

Graham Potter wants this game won, no doubt.

Image source, .

Graham Potter makes four changes to the Chelsea side that started the 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Saturday.

England midfielder Conor Gallagher is among those returning to the side while Croatia midfielder Mateo Kovacic - who was born in Austria - is also back.

Forwards Christian Pulisic and Kai Havertz also start as Mason Mount, Ben Chilwell, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Cesar Azpilicueta drop to the bench.

Jorginho captains the side.

Image source, .

Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg - unbeaten in all four games in the group stage - include Noah Okafor, who scored his side's goal in the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on 14 September.

Brazilian defender Bernardo also starts. He played for Brighton under Graham Potter before leaving in 2021.

First things first, let's head to Salzburg where the team news has just dropped...

Haaland's return is just one storyline on another busy night of Champions League action.

Here's a full run-down of what is happening tonight...

Hello! Going back to the place where you made your name is always an interesting experience for a footballer and tonight it is Erling Haaland's turn to find out what it feels like.

Just a few months after leaving Dortmund for another post-industrial city embracing the 21st world, the Manchester City striker is back in town.

And, remarkably for a man who scored 86 goals in 89 games, is even better than ever...

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Returning to the place where you spent your formative years can be an emotional experience.

All sorts of memories come flooding back. It's the little things.

Swinging into the car park and seeing the club crest on the side of the cantilever.

Locking eyes with the fierce-but-friendly security person guarding the door when you walk in.

Filing into the tunnel where you've stood hundreds of times before. And where you've returned after memorable victories and chastening defeats.

The sounds, the smells, the sights. They all coming flooding back.

But this time it's different. This time, the smiles remain friendly. But they don't want you to win. This time, for 90 minutes, you're the enemy.

Image source, Getty Images