This is what Pirelli are saying today. Sebastian Vettel, barring any early smashes elsewhere, will be one of the early pitters. Pirelli say that should be somewhere between laps seven and 14.

Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer in Abu Dhabi

Image source, Getty Images

Strategy - this should be an easy one-stop race for everyone, whatever the starting tyre. The fastest race strategy is to start on the medium and switch to the hard, and most who have the choice will join Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Alexander Albon in starting on the mediums. The McLaren and Renault drivers at the back end of the top nine have to start on the soft, like Sebastian Vettel.

They may gain off the line, but the soft degrades much faster than the medium so their main aim will be to get it to go as long as possible and try to drop into a space in the traffic, if there is one. According to rival teams’ strategy projections, Vettel has a major disadvantage because the Ferrari is hard on the soft tyre, so even if he can get ahead of Leclerc off the line, he will likely soon start to struggle. Ferrari may well be tempted to ask him to let Leclerc by in that situation so as not to compromise the team’s race.

A pit stop costs about 22 seconds under green-flag conditions and only 10 under a safety car but there is only a 30% historic possibility of that happening. As for the starters on soft, if they can get it to go to lap 20, they might be tempted to try the medium for the final stint. But that is expected to be a tough ask and the hard is more likely.

Chris Budden: hi radio team. I started the year listening to your commentary and being diagnosed with cancer, and I’ve ended the year having listened to every race and still being alive. Hope to join you in Melbourne and thank you for letting me ‘see’ the racing this year. Chris.

So that could stir things up. Leclerc is currently set to start third. As soon as we have confirmation of the starting grid we will let you know.

Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer in Abu Dhabi

Potential problems for Leclerc on a fuel discrepancy

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A few things to look out for today.

• Who will finish third - Verstappen or Leclerc?
• Which of the Ferrari drivers will finish higher?
• Who will come sixth - Gasly, Sainz or Albon?

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Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer in Abu Dhabi

Image source, Getty Images

Lando Norris ended an excellent rookie season with a place as best of the rest in seventh in qualifying, which becomes sixth as a result of Valtteri Bottas’ penalty. Team-mate Carlos Sainz was ninth fastest, just 0.026secs adrift and with Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo between them, but the team reckoned the Spaniard had at least another couple of 10ths in him had he not been held up in traffic on his out lap and lost tyre temperature.

With fourth in the constructors’ championship secured some time ago, McLaren’s sole aim for the race is to ensure Sainz finishes in front of Toro Rosso’s Pierre Gasly and secures sixth in the championship. The two are tied on points heading into the race, with Gasly ahead on count back as a result of his second place in Brazil.

Jennie's in position and the commentary team will be on 5 Live Sports Extra from 13:00 GMT.

It's advantage Renault in the fight for fifth in the constructors. Ricciardo starts seventh and Hulkenberg ninth, while the Toro Rossos of Gasly and Kvyat are 11th and 13th respectively.

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Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer in Abu Dhabi

Image source, Getty Images

Ferrari have not been on the pace this weekend. Their significant straight-line speed advantage is back after reducing in the last three races, but they are struggling in the corners of the final section of the lap, especially on the soft tyre, which they overheating in that third sector. It looks like they have reduced the downforce to try to benefit on the straights but it’s hurting them in the turns. So it was a surprise to see Charles Leclerc fastest in second qualifying, asking to switch to the medium tyre for his second run, against the team plan, because he felt confident he had done enough.

The final session did not go so well. Leclerc was 0.4secs down on Lewis Hamilton on the first runs, and then did not get around in time to do a second lap.

Ferrari held their hands up, and explained that they were trying to get the best - ie coolest - possible track conditions and so went out as late as they dared, knowing that they risked missing the flag as everyone backed up. Which they did. The car in front of Leclerc was Vettel, but he was being held up by Alexander Albon, who in turn had a McLaren in front of him.

In the circumstances, it was not exactly the most heinous error from Ferrari. The risk was small - the worst that could happen was that Leclerc would be jumped by Vettel, in which case the cars would still start third and fourth, just the other way around. And as Vettel is starting on the softs and Leclerc on the mediums, that could happen on the first lap anyway. As it happened, Vettel could not beat Leclerc’s first-run time anyway, so Leclerc lost nothing.

Most of the front runners start on the mediums, apart from Sebastian Vettel, who will be looking for a lightning first few laps on the softs before having to come in to the pits first.

Kimi will move up to outright second on the list of F1 race starts today, while Lewis Hamilton is starting an F1 race for the 250th time.

Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer in Abu Dhabi

Image source, Getty Images

Lewis Hamilton got what he wanted and ended the season with pole position. That put him equal with team-mate Valtteri Bottas on five poles each this year; the fact he had been behind was irking Hamilton, even though he has out-qualified Bottas at a rate of two-to-one this year, as he usually does with his team-mates.

Hamilton has talked about his struggles with qualifying regularly this year and he did it again on Saturday: “I’m well aware that you can’t win them all. I’ve been extremely fortunate and done a relatively decent job over the years – but yeah, I think just with understanding the car and ultimately just squeezing out the best: not over-driving; not under-driving; trying to find the right balance throughout the year. And plus, obviously we’ve had some great opposition. Opponents that are doing a great job.

“Austin was probably the last time the car was able to be on the front row, which Valtteri did, but I just wasn’t there, so it’s frustrating when you miss those sessions. It was the same in Japan. These last two races particularly, I’ve done a lot of experimenting. With my driving style and with the car. Just trying to see if I can eke out a little bit more. And I think I’m closer to it. Not 100% but I’ll apply what I’m like this year into next.”

After qualifying yesterday, Max wrote this...

This is our track at the Yas Marina Circuit. Watch out for Turn 19, it has caught out Sebastian Vettel, Charles Leclerc and Antonio Giovinazzi already this weekend.

Image source, BBC Sport

Yesterday was a good day for Lando Norris as he clinched team bragging rights in qualifying, although Carlos Sainz has picked up more points. Carlos though was not too happy.

Norris will start sixth, with Carlos Sainz eighth.

Roxy: Should have thought of this earlier and may be a stupid idea but should drivers have time limits on their careers? With the likes of Nico Hulkenberg not having a seat for next year and great young drivers missing out completely.

Would that mean forcing 40-year-old Kimi Raikkonen to retire and make way, Roxy?

Andrew Benson
BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer in Abu Dhabi

Image source, Getty Images

Valtteri Bottas starts from the back because the new engine that was fitted following his retirement in Brazil took him over the limit for power-unit parts - and then Mercedes effectively, although academically, doubled the penalty when they replaced the engine again after seeing some concerning signs after Friday practice.

Watching him come through the field should be one of the highlights of the race, but the question is, how far can he go? “Everything is always possible,” the Finn said. “There’s no point for me to set any limit really. So for sure, we’ll have a good fighting spirit. Take every opportunity there will be tomorrow and for sure there will be some. We’ve seen crazy races this year – look back two weeks in Brazil. So anything is possible. Look forward to coming up and taking those opportunities and most important having fun in the car.”

So this is our 2020 line-up. Also today is set to be the last time 'Toro Rosso' will be on the grid as they are set to be rebranded and known as 'Alpha Tauri' in 2020.

Image source, F1

We already know who will be racing for who next season, so can Nico Hulkenberg and Robert Kubica end on a high in what could be their final ever races F1 races?

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